But, judging by the percentage of people who picked Anderson to finish second (0.5 percent), we’re betting the number is pretty slim. Let’s jump right in and see what percentage of you had the top three slotted where they finished.

450

1. Ken Roczen | Avg selected position: 2nd

Position selection: 

1st: 28 percent of all entries picked to finish first  

2nd: 26 percent 

3rd: 16 percent

2. Jason Anderson | Avg selected position: 9th

Position selection: 

1st: 0.03 percent

2nd: 0.5 percent

3rd: 1.3 percent

3. Trey Canard | Avg selected position: 3rd

Position selection: 

1st: 23 percent

2nd: 18 percent

3rd: 18 percent

 

250SX

1. Jessy Nelson | Avg selected position: 6th

Position selection: 

1st: 1.3 percent

2nd: 3.5 percent

3rd: 7.4 percent

2. Zach Osborne | Avg selected position: 5th

Position selection: 

1st: 4.6 percent

2nd: 3.5 percent

3rd: 10.8 percent

3. Tyler Bowers | Avg selected position: 5th

Position selection: 

1st: 3.8 percent

2nd: 6.4 percent

3rd: 10 percent

 

Qualifying vs. Results

For some of you, last week was your first time playing fantasy supercross. And you probably got flustered after practice, made rash decisions, breathed heavily into a paper bag, and awoke minutes later to find out you picked James Stewart to finish third.

Um, yeah, in case you didn’t notice, he’s not racing. Anyway, we’re here so that doesn’t happen again.

Watching practice and looking over qualifying times are musts for making wise decisions in fantasy. Riders get hurt, struggle with their bikes, or just plain look off. Qualifying times are not the be-all and end-all, though. Here’s a small sample size from last week to explain why—the best, and worst, of qualifying to main event results.

Best:

450SX

1.)   Tevin Tapia | Qualified 37th | Finish: 22nd | Difference: +15

2.)   Weston Peick | Qualified: 18th | Finish: 7th | Difference: +11

3.)   Mike Alessi | Qualified: 16th | Finish: 9th | Difference: +7

 

250SX

1.)   Josh Hansen | Qualified: 22nd | Finish: 9th | Difference: +13

2.)   Ryan Breece | Qualified: 31st | Finish: 18th | Difference: +13

3.)   Scott Champion | Qualifed: 24th | Finish: 12th | Difference: +12

 

Worst:

450SX

1.)   Eli Tomac | Qualified: 1st | Finish: 20th | Difference: -19

2.)   Dean Wilson | Qualified: 5th | Finish: 15th | Difference: -10

3.)   Davi Millsaps | Qualified: 13th | Finish: 19th | Difference: – 6

 

250SX

1.)   Malcolm Stewart | Qualified: 2nd | Finish: 22nd | Difference: -20

2.)   Austin Politelli | Qualified: 8th | Finish: 17th | Difference: -9

3.)   Jackson Richardon | Qualified: 14th | Finish: DNQ

3.) Chris Alldredge | Qualified: 15th | Finish: DNQ

Yes, we realize that some of these results were one-time scenarios and likely won’t happen again. But, be cautious of throwing all your eggs in qualifying times. You could be missing out on a sleeper or two.

 

Top Picks/Sleepers

Picking twenty-two riders correctly is impossible. It’s never, ever, ever, ever going to happen. Okay, it actually may, but we’re going with zero percent chance it does. That’s okay, though. You earn points just for picking—if they make the main. You receive a score of zero if they don’t.

In Racer X MotoDynasty Fantasy Supercross, it’s invaluable to pick all twenty-two riders. You don’t lose any points, so there is no reason not to. Let's look at some top picks and sleepers to watch for.

450SX

Andrew Short | BTOSports.com KTM | Last week: 5th
As we told you last week, Short needs to be in you top ten every weekend. Most of you didn’t listen, as the average player picked him to finish thirteenth. The guy was inside the top ten in sixteen of seventeen rounds last year, folks. Just do it already.

Josh Hill | Valli Yamaha | Last week: 16th
Hill didn’t have much time on the Yamaha prior to the season, so don’t expect this result to continue. Look for Hill to climb toward the top ten this week.

Dean Wilson | Red Bull KTM | Last week: 15th
Okay, first round nerves are out of the way. Wilson was fast last week—qualified fifth—but was off in the main. Expect a top-ten result this week.

Mike Alessi | SmarTop/MotoConcepts | Last week: 9th
Last week, the average pick for Alessi was seventeenth; he got ninth. Think about putting him a little higher this week.

Kyle Partridge | Rocky Mountain ATV/MC | Last week: 21st
It’s hard to call this a sleeper, but only .014 percent of players had him making the main. If the whoops are big this weekend, slot him in your top twenty-two.

 

250SX

Zack Freeberg | Strikt Slaton Yamaha | Last week: 19th
Was running top-ten before a mechanical last week. Don’t sleep on him this weekend.

Alex Martin | CycleTrader/Rock River Yamaha | Last week: 8th
Like Andrew Short, Martin will top-ten you to death. Look for another solid week.

Shane McElrath | Lucas Oil/TLD KTM | Last week: 6th
Jessy Nelson grabbed all the attention last week, but McElrath was solid. Pick him high.

Aaron Plessinger | Yamalube/Star Racing Yamaha | Last week: 5th
Again, not much of a sleeper after A1, but his average last week was twelfth. Go ahead and slot him inside the top-ten, if not higher.

Chris Alldredge | Monster Energy/Pro Circuit Kawasaki | Last week: DNQ
Throw last week’s result out the window. Alldredge is much better than that. Don’t be afraid to toss him near the top ten.

 

AGAINST THE GRAIN

In fantasy, going against the grain is not necessarily just picking a rider on the cusp of making the main event. Nope, as you can see from last week, it can be a sleeper to make the podium (Osborne), or to make the top ten, or have a surprisingly bad finish. You can either look like a fool, or look really, really, really, ridiculously, smart.

450SX

- 0.002 percent of players picked Tevin Tapia to make the main event last week.

- 0.08 percent of players had Davi Millsaps slotted in the top five.

- 0.02 percent of players had Eli Tomac slotted in the top five.

 

250SX

- 0.004 percent of players had Trevor Reis making the 250SX main, while only .003 percent of players had him in the top fifteen. (He finished fifteenth.)

- 0.002 percent of players had Ryan Breece making the main at Anaheim 1.

- 0.12 percent of players had Zach Osborne on the podium.

 

Bonus Picks

Making bonus picks is scary. It’s the only time in Racer X MotoDynasty Fantasy Supercross you can actually lose points. (Need a refresher on Bonus Scoring? Go here.) If you’re smart with your choices, though, you can make up a lot of ground. We’ll try and help you make the smart decision and then make some picks of our own—put as much stock in those as you wish.

Anaheim 1 2015

450SX

Fastest Qualifier: Eli Tomac

Heat Winners: Andrew Short; Eli Tomac

Holeshot: Mike Alessi

 

250SX

Fastest Qualifier: Cooper Webb

Heat Winners: Justin Hill; Tyler Bowers

Holeshot: Jessy Nelson

 

My Picks for Phoenix

450SX

Fastest Qualifier: Eli Tomac

Heat Winner: Ken Roczen

Holeshot: Ken Roczen

 

250SX

Fastest Qualifier: Justin Hill

Heat Winner: Cooper Webb

Holeshot: Jessy Nelson

 

Prizes/Winners:

As we see with the guy above, winning is awesome. Congrats to these winners from last week. You’re all #1 in our book.

450

1. paulie112a: 461 points | Prize: Scott Hustle MX goggle.

2. ebowman85: 456 points | Prize: RXI digital subscription, Racer X pint glass, Racer X t-shirt, cover poster.

2. Rahm255: 456 points | Prize: RXI subscription, RX pint glass, Racer X t-shirt, cover poster.

3. bsmith585_cr: 450 points | Prize: Racer X hat, cover poster, Racer X cooler sleeve.

 

250

1. Dirtydale423: 403 points |Prize: Scott Hustle MX goggle.

2. MXDAD29: 393 points | Prize: Racer X digital subscription, Racer X pint glass, Racer X t-shirt, cover poster.

3. Mr. Hazlett: 392 points | Prize: Racer X hat, cover poster, Racer X cooler sleeve.

If you didn’t win, don’t freak out, there’s always this week. Check out what we have on tap...

Well, actually people liked the prizes so much we’re giving away the same prizes. But look for all-new prizes beginning next week.

 

Racer X League

Want to challenge the Racer X team? Here’s your chance. Each week we will run down the top five point scorers in the Racer X Fantasy League and the overall standings. Did you beat us this week? Let us know in the comments.

 Standings After Round 1

1.) Chase Stallo - Racer X Online Managing Editor: 723 points

2.) Andrew Fredrickson - Racer X Illustrated Managing Editor: 702 points

3.) Jason Weigandt - Racer X Online Senior Editor:  670 points

4.) Jordan Roberts - Marketing Manager: 664 points

5.) Andrew Mahey – Racer Productions Videographer/Editor: 662 points

 

ADVICE FROM THE SO-CALLED EXPERTS

Each week, a staff member (or someone else), will give weekly fantasy advice. This week, we turn to Racer X Illustrated managing editor Andrew Fredrickson, who won the 250 class in the Racer X League.

- Choose every single position. All of them. All twenty-two. You can’t lose points, so pick them all. I can’t stress this enough. This is easily the #1 reason people don’t score many points.

- Look at practice times and keep up to date on who’s in and who’s out of the night show.

- Remember to scroll all the way down to the bottom of the 250 class roster. You may think this is a stupid tip, but there are some good riders past #900 and I know a few people who missed Tyler Bowers on the list.

- After your roster is selected, and after practice is over, look at your list and adjust riders up and down with how you feel they compare to riders around them. If you feel someone is going to have a bad night, move them down. If you think someone is motivated, move them up.

- I feel as though the bonus picks are too risky at this point. I’m not going to risk 10, 15, and 20 points on Pole Position/Heat Winner/Holeshot because it’s just too much of a gamble. Picking these means you’re betting on one sole rider against the entire rest of the field, and usually the rest of the field is going to win at those odds.

Andrew's 5 Things he's betting on this week

1.) Trey Canard wins

2.) Eli Tomac on the podium

3.) Jason Anderson off the podium

4.) Ben LaMay and Nick Wey make main

5.) Chris Alldredge in top 15

 

BONEHEAD MOVE OF THE WEEK