It’s been a long time coming, both in his career and the 2020 season of Monster Energy Supercross, but Eli Tomac is finally set to wrap up his first premier class Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship on Sunday in Salt Lake City. The Monster Energy Kawasaki rider leads Red Bull KTM’s Cooper Webb, the only other rider still in contention, by 22 points coming into the finale.

If Webb wins Sunday’s race, Tomac will have to score a minimum of four points, which means he’d had have to finish, at worst, nineteenth. If Webb gets second or worse, Tomac needs to score a single point. To score just one point, Tomac simply needs to qualify for the main event, as even last place (22nd) pays one point. In other words, there’s going to have to be a major disaster for Tomac not to win this title. And even then it might not be enough.

For example, if Tomac doesn't finish and Webb wins, Tomac could still win the title, as long as three riders finish even worse than him. Even a first-turn pileup might not be enough. If there’s a mega crash in the first turn and several bikes break, the riders that doesn't finish the first lap are actually considered a DNS. When that happens to multiple riders, the main event finishing positions for them.are then based off gate picks (heat race results). So even if Tomac’s bike breaks in a pileup in the first turn, he could literally still win the title, even if Webb wins the race, providing other riders also can't complete the first lap, and he finished ahead of those riders earlier in the day. He's got a lot of insurance here.

Of course, it's a stretch to think it will come to that. Jason Anderson broke a wheel in the first turn of Salt Lake City in 2018, got it fixed, and came back on the track to record 17th in the main event. It will be very, very hard for Tomac not to finish 19th or better this weekend. As long as he does that, he's the new Monster Energy AMA Supercross champion.