![Thomas “These guys [Lawrence, Roczen] are masters of judging situations and gaps”](http://rxi.iscdn.net/2026/05/328011_al23910.jpg)
Just like that, the 16th round of Monster Energy AMA Supercross is over, and we’re no closer to having any clue who will win this 450SX championship. The action left us with plenty of other questions as well, so we sent them off to former pro and NBC on-track analyst, Jason Thomas.
The track in Denver is typically pretty hard and slick, and it seemed like it was the same way this time around too. Where was it, relative to past years here?
It’s still Denver! The base soil for Denver is very hard and very slippery as mentioned. With abundant sunshine Friday and Saturday, there was simply no way to avoid race conditions being exactly as advertised. It reminded me a lot of the 2024 conditions where the weather was about perfect but the dirt is anything but.
There was a small drop off, about the size of a curb, about 15-20 feet out of the gate. What was that for, and did it have any effect on start strategy?
It was designed to keep the riders away from the mechanics’ area, basically a barrier to keep them from drifting into their standing room. The dirt is so slippery and the momentum from the prior straightaway wants to carry them wide there, so this helps keep riders find a pivot back to the middle. It being on the start straight really isn’t about the start at all, it’s about the straightaway it butts up to.
There was a big double after the start that had a quad option after it, but nobody, except for Justin Hill, was doing it during the night show, instead opting to single in. Was this because the double-quad option wasn’t as fast, or was the risk reward factor not high enough? This is the same spot where Joey Savatgy injured his wrist during qualifying when he came up short doubling in.
Justin Hill just has an innate ability to put sections like this together. He was also the only rider to quad in Nashville during the main event. The two-four was easily the fastest line but not many riders are willing to take the risk if they haven’t executed it at any point all day. Once the main event arrives, they want to execute their game plan, not call an audible. There have been a select few over the years that would go big in this scenario. Justin Brayton, Chad Reed, James Stewart, and now Justin Hill are on that short list.
The elevation can play a factor in the riders’ performance and endurance. Did it seem like the guys were putting in fewer hot laps in during qualifying as a result?
I don’t think it necessarily led to fewer attempts at qualifying laps but I do think riders would notice their heart rates being higher. Typically, riders put in a heater, then take a down lap to regroup and get their heart rate lower and also allow any arm pump to dissipate. Those qualifying laps are way over the limit so that down lap is often needed before going again. This would be exacerbated at Denver’s elevation and the thought of, ‘Man, I’m out of breath here,’ usually crosses riders’ minds.
Kayden Minear made his pro supercross debut in Denver and took fifth. What’d you think of his performance, and what did you see as being his strong points?
He still had those difficult moments in qualifying that have plagued him in SMX Next, but the end result was respectable. I’m not sure how to “clean it up” so it’s more repeatable but that’s the need here. The team he’s on doesn’t have a lot of patience for mediocrity so the pressure is on to perform.
Speaking of debuts, Gage Linville made his as a fill in rider with Triumph Racing and took 11th. Were you able to get much of a look at him? If so, what’d you think?
For starters, he had a huge crash recently and his debut was delayed. I was surprised he’s back so 11th isn’t so bad. I don’t know if Linville has the top end speed to be a podium guy in this class but if he could find his way into the top 7-8 week in and week out, there could be a window for him long term. There are many guys in this same group, skill-wise, so execution is everything.
Eli Tomac was back for his home round, where he took third. Were you surprised he came back instead of just prepping for AMA Pro Motocross? And was this result better, worse, or about what you thought?
I believe Tomac truly likes racing and all things being at the races. If able, I expected him to be out there. Further, Denver is a special race for him, being in his home state of Colorado. I was surprised he was able to come from behind to get onto the podium, though! He had been so hit and miss lately, it’s hard to know what to expect on a results basis. When he stalled it, I thought that might be too tough to overcome. He showed some serious resilience, though.
Justin Cooper was all over his teammate, Cooper Webb, for fifth for quite a while. It looked like he had the advantage in speed, but he just couldn’t get around Webb. What could have done differently to get by Webb without having an awkward conversation at the truck afterward?
This is tough because Webb has been a mentor and close friend to J-Coop. The last thing he wants to do is go in there and get rough. In the same breath, I would say he had more pace and Webb was slowing him up. On a track that’s hard to pass, this is a tough equation to solve. J-Coop tried numerous times to get past, but Webb would find a way to defend it. Even tougher, it feels as if Webb knows that J-Coop won’t make hard contact and takes advantage of it. If J-Coop has the inside, Webb is willing to aggressively stick the outside when he would never do that to a different competitor for fear of getting taken down. I think there might be an eventual conversation on how this will go in the future because there have been a few instances where J-Coop is being held up. Not always and not even often, but sometimes.
What happened with Webb and Jorge Prado? Webb was all over him, but when he went for the pass he hit the dirt and Prado didn’t.
Well, first things first, Prado is not well liked by his competitors. Prado rides in a certain way where it’s beyond defensive. He cuts over on straightaways and sometimes midair which is a big no-no. There is not a lot of patience left for Prado amongst his competitors and that was evident with Webb’s move. Some of them are reaching a point where they are just going to go for the jugular in this spot moving forward. For evidence of this, watch Prado’s trajectory on the straight and into the berm where the contact occurred. It’s wildly aggressive toward the inside of the berm where Webb has the leverage. Webb is basically saying ‘Bruh, you’re cooked here, what are you doing?’ and Prado goes for it anyway. This is a prototypical example of what frustrates riders with Prado. He can be absolutely outflanked in a corner and still force a bad situation to get worse.
Ken Roczen was using every inch of the track, and then some, early in the race to get into second place behind Hunter Lawrence. But when he got there he seemed to settle in for second. Should he have made a push to see if he could have closed on Lawrence?
I do think he tried but Hunter’s pace was too strong. Ken gave it everything for maybe two laps but once he realized the gap wasn’t closing, he backed it down to a sustainable pace. These guys are masters of judging situations and gaps. Had Kenny made up significant time in that splurge, you would have seen him throw everything at it. When the gap didn’t change, that’s the cue that it’s not prudent to take outsized risk when the gap isn’t closing. Hunter also knows this, too, and would be sure to drop the hammer when he saw Kenny make the move, countering the splurge of intensity. Both of them knew what to do and when, it all came down to who had the pace to flex.
