The last two weekends have been interesting to watch in the 450 class. See, all season it has been the Ryan Dungey show. He has dominated for the most part and even as Ken Roczen improved, Ryan was able to keep him (barely) in check. These past two weekends, however, that has not been the case. Kenny was able to run away with both the Foxborough and East Rutherford rounds of the series. I believe there are two reasons for this but I haven’t been able to pin down which I feel is the more decisive. I am going to lay out my two factors and then I am sure the comments section below will let me know how wrong I am while also filling me in on why.
The first is a trend I have noticed from Dungey in the past year or two. In certain conditions, I think Dungey struggles a bit. When we are in an outdoor venue with a rough, deteriorating track, I don’t think Ryan is at his best. It’s odd, though, because if it is indoors and simply rutty (like Indy), he seems to be fine. On tracks like Foxborough and East Rutherford, I see Ryan battle his bike setup and lose his edge on the field.
It was very obvious to me at Foxborough that he wasn’t comfortable all afternoon. He was losing a lot of time in the whoops and wasn’t as aggressive as usual. Roczen looked much more in tune with the conditions and was able to ride away from Ryan, as was Eli Tomac. The same situation played out this past weekend at East Rutherford as Kenny destroyed the field and Eli was also able to push past Ryan and put significant time on him. Further, Eli was able to do the exact same to Ryan last year in New Jersey as he won the main event over Ryan in convincing fashion. Another example of the slight misfire in these conditions was that Ryan had his podium streak snapped at 31-straight races. It nearly ended the week prior, in similar conditions, but Ryan was able to fight back past Jason Anderson for third place. While I wouldn’t say he is weak in these conditions by any means, it just seems to be the only liability left in his supercross game—if you’re battling for third or fourth on your worst day, you’re still pretty well off. Clearly, Dungey is at the tip of the supercross spear and wrapping the title early two years in a row proves that. But this is just a pattern I have noticed and surely something on Ryan’s list of “what to improve in 2017.”
But there is another side to this coin: the pressure of clinching the championship. Going into Foxborough, Dungey had a chance to lock up the title, but he had to win the race to do it. The pressure of the championship has to weigh on Ryan when it comes to riding aggressively and taking chances. There is so much to lose by pushing the edge and having a crash jeopardize everything. That leads to conservative riding and while he’s surely still going fast, beating Ken Roczen and Eli Tomac requires maximum effort. To win, everything has to be laid on the line and I just don’t know if Ryan was willing to take that chance this late in the season with such a big points lead in hand. The outlook and risk assessment changes, even if it’s subconsciously. Early in the season, his aggression level was super high and winning was paramount to any other factor. Now, with things firmly in control, he had to think big picture and instead of “win at all costs,” it was more like “don’t screw up at all costs.”
This is where I pose the question. What lead to Ryan’s results the last two weekends? Is it more that Ryan is suspect in that specific track condition or is he riding conservatively to clinch the title? I can make a case for both and if pressed, I would say it’s a combination of both. I don’t think the track conditions we’ve seen over the last two weeks are ideal for his bike setup and strengths, but I also think he backs it down a tiny bit (even if not on purpose) to make sure he doesn’t crash out of the race when a title is in the cards. Remember, he also lost the “title clinching” race last year to Cole Seely and then also lost the rough, tough East Rutherford round to Eli Tomac a couple of weeks later. Both of those points would add to their respective cases.
Luckily for Ryan, this argument has been made moot by his absolute dominance over the course of the season. He has built up such a cushion that he can laugh at this situation entirely. Still, it’s interesting to me to try to dissect where and when a legendary rider like Dungey may be susceptible. For any rider trying to beat him, knowing the weakness of your rival can be your most lethal tool.
