We did good, but it’s obvious some of you still need our help. So stick around—maybe we can provide some answers. Let’s take a look at last week’s top three.

450

Ryan Dungey | 1st

1.) 38 percent

2.) 25 percent

3.) 21 percent

Eighty-four percent of all users had Dungey finishing on the podium.

Cole Seely | 2nd

1.) 0 users

2.) 7 users

3.) 14 users

Less than 1 percent of all users had Seely finishing on the podium.

Eli Tomac | 3rd

1.) 20 percent

2.) 24 percent

3.) 20 percent

Sixty-four percent of all users had Tomac on the podium.

 

250SX

Cooper Webb | 1st

1.) 70 percent 

2.) 20 percent

3.) 7 percent

Ninety-six percent of all users had Webb on the podium.

Jessy Nelson | 2nd

1.) 3 percent

2) 16 percent

3.) 19 percent

Thirty-seven percent of all users had Nelson on the podium.

Aaron Plessinger | 3rd

1.) 0 users

2.) 1 user

3.) 9 users

Point-five percent had Plessinger finishing on the podium.

 

Qualifying vs. Results

Hopefully some of you followed our advice and were cautious when judging qualifying. As we've said, it’s vital to study qualifying to make good picks, but one must use caution. We could list the many reasons as to why, or just show you some examples of the best, and worst, and what was right on from qualifying to main event results.

Best

450SX

Jake Weimer | Qualified: 18th | Finish: 15th | Difference: +3

Vince Friese | Qualified: 16th | Finish: 13th | Difference: +3

Blake Baggett | Qualified: 10th | Finish: 7th | Difference: +3

250SX

Blake Lilly | Qualified: 29th | Finish: 20th | Difference: +9

Ryan Breece | Qualified: 26th | Finish: 18th | Difference: +8

Trevor Reis | Qualified: 12st | Finish: 16th | Difference: +5

 

Missed the Mark

450SX

Josh Grant | Qualified: 12th | Finish: 22nd | Difference: -10

Davi Millsaps | Qualified: 7th | Finish: 11th | Difference: -4

Kyle Partridge | Qualified: 15th | Finish: DNQ

250SX

Malcolm Stewart | Qualified: 2nd | Finish: 17th | Difference: -15

Tyler Bowers | Qualified: 1st | Finish: 15th | Difference: -14

Zach Bell | Qualified: 10th | Finish: 21st | Difference: -11

 

On Point

450SX

Mike Alessi | Qualified: 17th | Finish: 17th | Difference: 0

Nick Schmidt | Qualified: 21st | Finish: 21st | Difference: 0

Andrew Short | Qualified: 13th | Finish: 12th | Difference: +1

250SX

Johnny Jelderda | Qualified: 22nd | Finish: 22nd | Difference: 0

Zack Freeberg | Qualified: 13th | Finish: 13th | Difference: 0

Austin Politelli | Qualified: 18th | Finish: 19th | Difference: -1

 

SCORING CHART

Need a refresher on how scoring works? Go here. Want to view the scoring chart? See below.

Place	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
1	50	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	0
2	22	48	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1
3	20	22	46	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2
4	18	20	22	44	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3
5	17	18	20	22	42	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4
6	16	17	18	20	22	41	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5
7	15	16	17	18	20	22	40	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6
8	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	39	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7
9	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	38	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8
10	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	37	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9
11	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	36	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10
12	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	35	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11
13	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	34	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12
14	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	33	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13
15	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	32	22	20	18	17	16	15	14
16	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	31	22	20	18	17	16	15
17	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	30	22	20	18	17	16
18	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	29	22	20	18	17
19	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	28	22	20	18
20	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	27	22	20
21	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	26	22
22	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	25

 

Top Picks/Sleepers

As we continue to pound into your skulls, picking all twenty-two riders in order will probably never, ever, ever, happen. That’s okay, though. You earn points just for picking—if they make the main. Every week we’ll give you a couple top picks and sleepers to watch. Also, make sure to check our Injury Report before making your picks for the weekend.

450SX

Chad Reed | Discount Tire/TwoTwo Motorsports | Last week: 6th
Reed and San Diego go together like a Bert and Ernie. (Look it up, youngsters.) He won here in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, and 2011, led until the last lap in 2012, and was pushing for a win in 2013—before a crash. Top-five is not a dumb pick.

Blake Baggett | Yoshimura Suzuki | Last week: 7th
Baggett has really come on as of late. He’s had three straight top-ten finishes and even led a few laps last weekend. Time to move him inside your top-ten.

Josh Hill | CycleTrader.com/Rock River Yamaha | Last week: 10th
Yes, he’s switching teams. Yes, he struggled before last weekend. Bu,t in talking to Hill this week, he thinks the bike is even better. I like 10-15 range here.

Andrew Short | BTOSports.com KTM | Last week: 12th
The ageless one has had a rough couple weeks. But, he’s been a perennial top ten guy before. I think he rebounds this weekend.

Jake Weimer | Team Tedder/Monster Energy Kawasaki | Last week: 15th
Following a hot start to the season, Weimer has cooled a bit. He moves closer to the top ten this weekend.

250SX

Ryan Breece | Privateer | Last week: 18th
He’s made three of five mains thus far. Time to considered him in your picks for the main.

Jackson Richardson | Privateer | Last week: 11th
Another privateer that’s making waves. The last three weeks he’s gone 11-14-11. Top-fifteen or better is a solid pick.

Cole Martinez | Strikt Slaton Yamaha | Last week: 10th
Is coming off a seasons best, and has racked up three top-fifteen finishes in five rounds. Safe play is top-fifteen.

Jake Canada | 51FIFTY Yamaha | Last week: DNQ
Has missed both mains since joining 51FIFTY and moving down to 250SX. He’s getting comfortable on the bike and the talent is there. Slot him in the main.

Jessy Nelson | Lucas Oil/Troy Lee Designs KTM | Last week: 2nd
This isn’t a huge risk pick, but make the safe play and have him on the podium.

 

AGAINST THE GRAIN

Against the grain is not always a bad pick. For example, if you were part of the twenty-four users that had Cole Martinez tenth or better, you picked up some points. Or, if you we’re part of the two percent that had Malcolm Stewart outside the top ten, you picked up a ton of points. Remember, your competition will also make the obvious picks (maybe) so you won't make up a ton of ground unless you hit 'em where they ain't. As you’ll see below, it can go the other way as well.

450SX

- Seventy-two percent had Roczen third or better; he finished fourth.

- Seely’s average position picked was seventh; he finished second.

- Forty-seven percent had Blake Baggett tenth or better; he finished seventh.

- Zero percent had Josh Hill tenth or better; he finished tenth.

- Seventy-seven percent had Davi Millsaps tenth or better; he finished eleventh.

- Seven percent had Nick Schmidt making the main; he finished twenty-first.

- Nine percent had Jake Weimer tenth or better; he finished fifteenth.

- Forty-five percent had Ben LaMay making the main; he finished nineteenth.

- Twenty-eight percent had Broc Tickle making the main; he missed A3 with a back injury (read Injury Report, people).

- Forty-five percent had Kyle Partridge making the main; he missed the main event.

250SX

- Matt Bisceglia’s average position was eleventh; he finished fifth.

- Ninety-six percent had Tyler Bowers tenth or better; he finished fifteenth.

- Ninety-eight percent had Malcolm Stewart tenth or better; he finished seventeenth.

- Forty-four percent had Zach Bell tenth or better; he finished twenty-first.

- Only twenty-four users had Cole Martinez tenth or better; he finished tenth.

- Thirty-five percent had Zack Freeberg fifteenth or better; he finished thirteenth.

- Seventeen percent had Johnny Jelderda making the main; he finished twenty-second.

 

Bonus Picks

Our Jordan Roberts struck gold for a second straight week—he’s cheating if you ask me—and got the heat race winner right. Does that mean it’s time to start risking it? For holeshots and qualifying, it’s too early. But as injuries begin to thin the 450 heard, heat races are starting to go from murky to clear. Check out www.amasupercross.com for the heat race lineups, which are set a few minutes after the final practice. Last week, most of the big threats were lined up in one heat, and Eli Tomac was all alone in another. Guess what? Eli won it. 

Heats have moved from guess to educated guess. We understand that some of you like to live on the edge and will want to pick holeshot and fastest qualifier. And we are here to help you crazy folk as well.

Round	Fastest Qualifier	Heat Winners	Holeshot
Anaheim 1	Eli Tomac; Cooper Webb	Andrew Short, Eli Tomac; Justin Hill, Tyler Bowers	Mike Alessi; Jessy Nelson
Phoenix	Eli Tomac; Cooper Webb	Cole Seely, Eli Tomac; Justin Hill, Jessy Nelson	Eli Tomac; Zach Osborne
Anaheim 2	Justin Barcia; Zach Osborne	Ryan Dungey, Mike Alessi; Cooper Webb, Shane McElrath	Jimmy Albertson; Zach Osborne
Oakland	Trey Canard; Justin Hill	Ken Roczen, Justin Barcia; Cooper Webb, Jessy Nelson	Andrew Short; Zach Bell
Anaheim 3	Ryan Dungey; Tyler Bowers	Eli Tomac, Ryan Dungey; Malcolm Stewart, Jessy Nelson	Blake Baggett; Matt Bisceglia

My Picks for San Diego

450SX

Fastest qualifier: Ken Roczen

Heat Winner: Eli Tomac

Holeshot: Mike Alessi

250SX

Fastest qualifier: Justin Hill

Heat Winner: Jessy Nelson

Holeshot: Zach Bell

 

ADVICE FROM THE SO-CALLED EXPERTS

Last week we brought in Racer X magazine managing editor Andrew Fredrickson. And, for the second time this year, he stunk up the joint. Yes, he did move up in the Racer X League, but it wasn’t from what he told you poor souls. Tyler Bowers to win? Not even close. Andrew Short holeshot? That would be a no. He did pick Dungey to win (congrats), but he also had A-Mart third or fourth (he finished ninth) and Jason Anderson on the box (he finished ninth). We’ll try and restore some order here, and bring in Jordan Roberts, who is on quite the hot streak with bonus picks.

Five Things I’m Betting on this Week (Jordan Roberts)

1. A 450SX heat race winner: I’ve done it every round. Mr. Stallo publicly ridiculed me as Ken Roczen failed me through the first three rounds, but guess who nailed a correct 450SX heat race winner through the last two? Oh, and guess who also passed Mr. Stallo in the Racer X League leaderboard? I’m still 15 points in the hole with my heat race winner picks, but you can’t win big if you’re not betting big. I’ll make a 450SX pick after watching qualifying’s live timing and Race Day LIVE feed. I’m not quite ballsy enough to go with a 250SX heat race winner, though. Too unpredictable…

2. Cooper Webb wins: He led both versions of A3’s main event and had a very convincing ride in Oakland after getting the People’s Elbow from Bowser (aka Tyler Bowers). The kid’s simply on fire and hard not to pick for the win at this point.

3. Justin Hill on the podium: He had a recent bout will illness and experienced some bad luck after last weekend’s restart. It all ends here! The likeable orange rider from Oregon will taste champagne on Saturday.

4. Cole Seely in the top five: Seely has been building momentum through the West Region rounds just like Ryan Dungey. He has the speed to podium again, but there are five guys with podium speed and only three spots. Where he finishes amongst the top five will ultimately depend on the start.

5. Josh Grant finishes seventeenth: Before fantasy supercross was very prominent, Chase, Andrew, and I used to make wagers at the local watering hole for who would finish seventeenth in the 450SX main event. Why? Because picking seventeenth is probably harder than picking the winner.

 

PRIZES/WINNERS

Winning is awesome. Congrats to these winners from last week. You’re all number one in our book.

450SX

1.) TeamASND: 542pts |Renthal Twinwall Bars

2.) Tavo138: 538pts | Renthal R1 Works Chain

3.) whodaboss04: 530pts |Renthal Ultralight Rear Sprocket

250SX

1.) rawdawgin: 429pts |Maxima Pro Package - (4) Pro Plus+ Full Synthetic Engine Oil (1L bottles), Chain Care Kit, SC1, BIO Wash, Maxima T-Shirt, and Decal Kit

2.) Jbell20: 427pts |Pro Filter Package - Stainless Steel Oil Filter, Billet Oil Filter Cover, and Premium Air Filter

3.) KBR: 424pts | Maxima MTB Package - Synthetic Chain Guard Chain Lube, Assembly Lube, SC1, Maxima BIKE T-Shirt

If you didn’t win, don’t freak out, there’s always this week. Check out what we have on tap.

Maxima 450 Prizes

1st place: Maxima Pro Package - (4) Pro Plus+ Full Synthetic Engine Oil (1L bottles), Chain Care Kit, SC1, BIO Wash, Maxima T-Shirt, and Decal Kit

2nd place: Pro Filter Package - Stainless Steel Oil Filter, Billet Oil Filter Cover, and Premium Air Filter

3rd place: Maxima MTB Package - Synthetic Chain Guard Chain Lube, Assembly Lube, SC1, Maxima BIKE T-Shirt

Renthal 250 Prizes

1st place: Renthal Twinwall Bars

2nd place: Renthal R1 Works Chain

3rd place: Renthal Ultralight Rear Sprocket

 

Racer X League

Oh, the ups and downs of fantasy. It wasn't long ago I was winning. Now, I'm a lonely third.