Last week we talked about Ken Roczen doing damage to the field in the opening laps. He was getting to the front and finding “clean air,” to steal a NASCAR term, and putting in blisteringly fast laps. As the main event got underway in Oakland this weekend, surely his goal was to do the same. He grabbed a good start and was in the top three as the first lap unfolded. What didn’t go as planned, however, was Chad Reed getting by him on that first lap. The move by Reed and ensuing counter move by Roczen has completely changed the championship landscape at this point.
On the first lap, Roczen was trying to get to the lead and get there immediately. He saw Andrew Short out front and knew that he could get by him without any sort of incident. The potential situation was ideal. Once he could clear Reed, he could get around Short quickly and try to gap everyone as he has was able to do at Anaheim a week ago. When Reed jammed his way back past, though, it took him out of his game plan. I believe it angered him and triggered him to force the issue. His initial plan to jump to the inside of Reed and block Reed’s line was well constructed. He had plenty of room and seized the opportunity.
Where he made his mistake, and this is completely uncharacteristic for Roczen, was not staying patient. Some of you at home are thinking, “HOW CAN HE STAY PATIENT? THEY ARE RACING FOR THE WIN!” It’s very simple, really. Once he jumped inside of Reed, all he had to do was stay in the line. Whether he doubled the first two jumps or simply rolled the first and doubled out, he would have Reed completely boxed in and therefore the pass would have stuck. Instead, he went for the unthinkable. On one of the most difficult triples of the young season, he tried to jump it with almost zero momentum from the turn. In any other scenario, I think he understands which jump he is on and realizes he has no chance of reaching the landing. In this case, though, he was rattled and made a poor choice.
I could see this same decision being made by many riders, but from Roczen it was a surprise. Even though he’s young, he always strikes me as the calm in any storm. His patience and decision-making ability is typically a strength that puts him in good position for every championship he enters. In this one isolated incident, however, it was his undoing. Not only that, he gave up valuable points and the coveted red plate to his rival, Ryan Dungey. Furthermore, he allowed Trey Canard to sneak back into the championship conversation.
Where the championship goes from here is yet to be seen, but if this comes down to the wire, one decision like that can be the difference. It’s not always about who can go the fastest or win the most races. Sometimes it’s about who can eliminate the most mistakes. Seventeen rounds of racing means thousands of split second decisions every Saturday. Champions make wise decisions.
