A 90 degree left hand corner sets up for a double-double and then riders fire across the start straight and past their mechanics.

Another 90 left leads to a stadium-long rhythm section. There are a few ways to attack this one, but I like one particular approach. If riders jump over the first tabletop, they can then go 3-3-2 into the next corner. Those triples allow them to jump from the smaller jumps and either clear entirely or land on the downside of taller jumps. That keeps riders low and fast, always the goal. If riders go on-off the first tabletop, they can still triple through, but they would be jumping from the tallest jumps in the section and gaining unnecessary height. It seems like a small difference, but the stopwatch would argue vehemently.

A 180 left brings riders back into the finish line jump and this is built as a triple but almost always gets adjusted to a double. I’m not sure why the triple aspect is drawn in on these and then removed almost without fail. In any case, riders will downside the landing and round a flat 180 right. This 180 will be inside dominant as there is no reason to go outside nor anything to pivot from.

Up next is the only whoops section and with a long lead in, they might remain blitzers all evening. The dirt in Houston is typically steadfast but with the winter storm just exiting, maybe there is more moisture than normal, and the jumpers get some deterioration late.

A 180 left brings riders into 5 jumps. Most of the 250 class will go 2-3 here but the quickest pathway is no doubt going 3-2. The tricky part is that getting the first triple will require a heavy seat bounce. A less effective alternative could be to hug the inside after the whoops and then going 1-2-2. I don’t foresee the 450 elite doing anything but 3-2 but every approach needs to be vetted.

Riders will cross the start in a backwards fashion and scream into a 180 right. Exiting the 180, this rhythm gets interesting on paper. The straight forward approach is to triple onto the tabletop and jump off. But the very tall single afterwards forces a reassessment. The goal would be to get up and over that tall jump and to accelerate across the first corner section and triple into the next corner. How to accomplish this is an interesting quandary. Ideally, riders would jump all the way over the tabletop but this looks challenging. Maybe a few of the 450 elite could make it? If so, they will have a gigantic edge. Watch this section and see how it shapes up. It could be critical.

A 180 left fires riders into a triple that feels non-negotiable for success and into lap two.

Who’s Hot

Haiden Deegan has taken over control of this series and might run away from here. His ability to come from the middle of the pack is now transitioning to SX and that’s a scary development for anyone wanting to beat him.

Michael Mosiman’s career has been filled with high’s and low’s. Most, including myself, wrote him off circa 2023 but he’s back and looks to be back on 2022 form. This is a cool story.

Once upon a time, Ryder DiFrancesco was a lock to be a superstar. That has taken longer than most expected to come to fruition but through 3 rounds, he looks the part. Some riders take longer than others to find their best level. Ryder D could win races in the next few years when you take a look at the landscape of who’s going to still be around.

Cameron McAdoo missed the podium after being bested by Ryder D’s late charge. Don’t let that detract from his solid riding and big bounce after the A1 chaos.

Chase Sexton grabbed that elusive win that most considered inevitable. The guy is simply too talented to stay off the top step for long. The real question is in the crash/win equation and how that shakes out. If he stays upright, he wins most of these races.

Eli Tomac has two wins and a third to start 2026. This is the most successful start to a season he’s ever had. That’s the strongest statement I can make.

Hunter Lawrence has firmly established himself in this elite 450 SX tier. Most pundits assumed this would happen but until it does, it’s fair to wait and see. That waiting is over. He’s here.

Jason Anderson led laps and was more of a factor in A2 than he’s been in a long time. Houston’s Triple Crown could be very interesting for him if he nails the starts.

Who’s Not

Levi Kitchen cannot catch a break. Thankfully he’s relatively healthy but good grief, man.

Chance Hymas is going to be sidelined for a while, and this is the last thing he needed. He is capable of winning but that only works when healthy. I would imagine this is tough for him to manage mentally but racing is hard that way.

Cooper Webb is off to a historically difficult start for a defending champion. The riding is not the issue so if there is a silver lining, it’s that he should be able to snap out of it soon.

Aaron Plessinger is in the Levi Kitchen level of purgatory to start 2026. This is eerily similar to how 2025 went until he broke out around Daytona time.

Justin Cooper is iffy to be in this category. His 6-6-10 scores are not terror inducing but I can’t imagine he’s thrilled. The starts are a big part of this story. Huge part, in fact.

Bold Predictions

Ryder D goes full pull for Houston and runs the handlebar moustache.

Levi Kitchen puts Sexton’s A1 suspension on his 250 for the transfer of power attempt.

Vince Friese wins an Oscar for pretending to give a rat’s a$$ about Mitchell Harrison crashing.

Jorge Prado is absolutely flabbergasted by the state of Texas.