Tomac Theories

The bottom dropped out the next weekend at RedBud when his bike let go while he was running third (again behind the Lawrences, but ahead of everyone else). Since then, he’s recorded 7-6-9 moto scores and lost a ton of ground.

What happened? Eli isn’t going to say much, as he never does. So, all we can do is theorize based on some evidence. Here are a few Eli theories in advance of Washougal.

1. The Motivation Slipped: This is a theory only the greats understand, and James Stewart has been talking about this with both Tomac and the really-struggling Jorge Prado. Riders who have spent their whole lives winning races and titles don’t have much interest in battling for anything less. The RedBud DNF and resultant bad gate pick for moto two really imploded his season, with 34-7 scores in the motos. Leaving High Point, Tomac was 28 points down. After RedBud he was down 73 points. With no hope in sight, is it possible he just lost his edge? Millville, following the bad day at RedBud, was his worst race of the year with 6-9 scores.

2. It’s the bike: Okay, yes, Tomac’s Monster Energy Yamaha Star Racing YZ450F was great in those scintillating early motos, so how can it be an issue now? Well, the last three tracks -- Southwick, RedBud and Spring Creek -- are different tracks than the first four. They’re deeper and sandier. Perhaps Eli has a Yamaha setup dialed for the harder packed tracks but not for the soft stuff yet? Remember, this is a new-generation bike compared to the 2022 Yamaha Tomac used to win the 450 Championship. This is his first time on this bike on these tracks.

“We had a good week of testing with Eli, but it didn’t seem to translate to the race,” said team manager Rich Simmons in a Yamaha press release after Millville. “We’ll go back to work this week.”

Maybe we will get an answer in the return to the harder stuff this weekend at Washougal.

3. Everyone Else Got Better: The weekend off between High Point and Southwick might have been key. At the start of the season the Lawrence boys said they weren’t quite dialed on the 2025 Honda yet, but they’ve been happy, lately. They have pulled away from Eli and everyone else. Also, Chase Sexton is back, RJ Hampshire is better, Aaron Plessinger and Justin Cooper have had some good moments…maybe everyone else just stepped up? Well, kinda. Eli got outdueled by a bunch of guys who usually don’t beat him at Spring Creek. It can’t be only that everyone got better, but it also could be a factor.

4. He Had a Head Start: Related to the topic above. Tomac was hurt during Monster Energy AMA Supercross, but he was back on the bike and logging motos a few weeks in advance of the outdoor campaign. In fact, Eli said he had more pre-season motocross work under his belt this year than in a normal season, when he’s racing supercross until the end. So, perhaps he was just more ready than the competition at the start of the campaign and now they’re dialed in?

5. Just Weirdo Races: It’s been awhile, but if you think back, Tomac has had those “weirdo Eli” races in the past where he just didn’t have it. Eli is not an excuses guy, so he rarely reveals anything when he struggles. Sometimes he just gets arm pump. One time he was doing a gnarly military workout before a race and wasn’t fresh for the race. Another time he was fence pounding at his farm and cooked his arms. Maybe there’s something going on we won’t ever know about.

6. He’s Old: This one is ridiculous, but people are still going to think it. Yes, Eli is 32. But he was also 32 when he won that Hangtown moto. Tomac was also flying in supercross before he got hurt! He’s capable, still, it just isn’t happening at the moment. Will it get fixed this weekend? Will it be different with a relatively fresh points slate when the SMX playoffs begin? Everyone wants to know, because everyone wants to see Eli Tomac winning again.