So if you watch last weekend’s Monster Energy AMA Supercross, an FIM World Championship, main event from Anaheim, you saw Blake Baggett get the holeshot (a rarity for him) and try to hold his own against the best in the business. Blake is not known as a supercross specialist, he’s a rookie on a 450, and the front end of the 450 pack is exceptionally intense right now. They’re all smelling blood in the water and they are going for it. Considering those factors, Blake faired well.
When Ryan Dungey brought the inevitable pressure, Blake didn’t move over, but instead squeezed his front brake lever so hard that he nose wheelied into turn one. He so desperately did not want to give Dungey the inside. He didn’t want to just assume the role of a top ten guy. He wanted to fight. Blake didn’t block or ram or get dirty, but he held his ground as best as he could, making Trey Canard, Cole Seely, Eli Tomac, Ken Roczen and Chad Reed earn their passes.
In the end though, they did pass him, and Blake went from first to seventh. He had gone backwards, which is a stake through the heart of any racer at this level. I doubt there was anyone faulting his performance, though. Blake rode very well, tried very hard, and didn’t succumb to the pressure. Hey, last week at Oakland Andrew Short pulled the holie and tried to lead as long as he could, but even he, a veteran of nine seasons in the class, ended up with arm pump, and finished eighth. The few that can hang at that pace and lead 20 laps against these guys are prime candidates for “greatest athletes in the world.” Seriously. They’re bad dudes.
Add that all up and seventh is good for Blake. From the very first practice sessions at Anaheim 1, I’ve been impressed with what I’ve seen. He’s looked smooth and comfortable on the big bike, not a fish out of water as could be expected considering his supercross track record on smaller bikes. Riders usually go one of two ways at this: the best ones do just as well in the 450 class as they did in 250s. Others drop off. Someone without much of a 250 pedigree getting better when they move up? Blake’s one of the few.
Of course, his supercross skills aren’t as bad as they seem on paper. Blake started his career well—he won a race in his rookie season and was a genuine title threat in year two. It’s only his third year (2012) that sticks out. He pretty much sucked at supercross, full stop, and then came back to win the darned 250 National Championship in Lucas Oil Pro Motocross. Thus began his decent into outdoor specialist mode, helped massively by breaking his wrist in a first-turn crash at Anaheim 1 in 2013 (ending his SX season, and it wasn’t his fault) and then more injury woes last year. But even in the bad years, Blake would of course bring it at Daytona, which is more similar to a motocross track. Yes, we have a mold set here: Blake Baggett is better outdoors than indoors. For him to run with the big dogs for a few laps and hold on for seventh? That’s good.
Here is where it gets tricky. Right in the middle of last week’s fast pack came Cole Seely, who is also a 450 rookie like Blake. Seely’s supercross skills are not in question, he’s won plenty of races and battled for titles on a 250, and has been damned solid in fill-in rides on a 450. We know Seely can do big things. When he got around Blake and then went on to finish second, it was impressive but not shocking. In fact, as far as expectations, a second for Seely seems almost an equal to Baggett getting seventh: both were at the very upper end of what we thought they were capable of. They were just five positions apart.
Now just do this equation in reverse. When we get to Hangtown in May, you’ll see Seely and Baggett again racing against the same competition. Suddenly, you wouldn’t be shocked to see Blake make the podium, and you would be impressed if Seely acquitted himself for a bit but slid back a few spots. The definition of a great ride is based more on the expectations before it than the actual results after it.
This is a huge part of why the mental game is so difficult in this sport. I am sure Blake Baggett didn’t grow up dreaming of seventh at the Anaheim supercross. He dreamt of winning! And Cole Seely would much rather stand on the box at a National than not. They want to be there and what’s more they know they have to believe they can be there before they can actually do it. It’s just so hard to make that mental jump. Blake Baggett wants to win and wants to believe he can win, but can he really look up and down the gate this Saturday and believe in his heart of hearts that this group is his for the taking?
This is where we really start to get realistic. A year ago Trey Canard was fighting back from another injury, and while he was fast, he was not quite on the level of Ken Roczen and Ryan Dungey, who were beating him consistently outdoors. If Trey landed on the podium, it seemed like a great ride. But then came bike changes, and Trey got faster, and it suddenly became possible that he could beat anyone and win races. He still wasn’t sure though, he said himself that until he actually won one, it was hard to believe he could win one. Now that he’s broken through, the expectations have changed. A result that would have seemed satisfying a year ago is disappointing now.
When you look through the field this Saturday, realize that every rider has his own set of expectations. They all dream of winning, but that’s not realistic. For some the goal is to just make the main, for others it’s to creep closer to the top ten, others expect to challenge for podiums and wins. A great ride can’t be defined by the actual result, but rather by the rider’s reaction deep down. They’ll all say the right things in order to convince themselves they belong, and build confidence. Regardless of what it says on paper, they know, in their heart, if they really performed to their potential.
