The opening round of any series, be it supercross, motocross, the Stanley Cup Final (catch the fever!) always has some surprises and some things that play out exactly as we think they will.
Like for example, for the opening round of the AMA Pro Motocross Championship at Fox Raceway, I was not surprised to see so many of the fans trying to avoid stepping in massive mud puddles in the middle of the pits. The teams washing their bikes make for a mess and we can’t do wash bays. So, we have spectators showing up (maybe for the first time or maybe they don’t actually know that their shoes could get ruined) and trying to dance their way through the mud puddles. Like, that’s NOT surprising-it’s there every year! Welcome to the outdoors!
Let’s take a trip back in time to Saturday and look at what was surprising and what was not, yeah?
SURPRISES
-I would say that the 450MX class wasn’t surprising in any real ways. I picked Jett Lawrence to win so I was off on that, but his starts did suck really bad. Having said that though, Jett’s best possible outcome had he started up front was, in my opinion, a 3-3. He wasn’t beating his brother or Jorge Prado no matter what. He did get better as the motos went on and with this injury, he’s been knocked down to just “one of the fastest” guys in the class and not “the” fastest guy. I’ll go with a *mild surprise he didn’t win.
-I did a preview show on Thursday and completely forgot about Justin Cooper. Like, of course I did! J-Coop is oftentimes the forgotten man out there. Then he gets third in the first moto and rides well up through the pack in moto two. I guess I’m surprised again, for the 749th time, by Justin Cooper. One of these years I’ll learn.
Related: Justin Cooper: "I just renewed my deal for another deal...so we're good for '27"
-I was a little surprised that the Honda HRC 250 guys weren’t better also. Both had good motos but no podiums for either Jo Shimoda or Chance Hymas. I thought Shimoda’s first moto was the best out of their four. He got better as it went on and look, with the inconsistency of the class, Shimoda was one pass away from third overall on the day so let’s calm down. No big deal here, everything is fine but just thought we’d see them fighting for moto wins.
-Caden Dudney getting second overall was a surprise and with 6-4 scores at that! He was solid though, we saw his not so good SX season but all the “people” that know him talk about him being better in MX than SX and we saw that. A bit flukey with the second overall sure but this was a good race for the rookie.
-Lux Turner! To me anyways, I think of Lux as a SX guy for sure but this weekend, he crushed it on his way to seventh OA on the day. His previous best in MX was a 14th so this was quite an improvement ride for sure. Nice ride for Turner here who is definitely catching some eyes of factory team managers one would think.
-On that note, Nick Romano also! Nick’s a fill in rider for Monster Energy/Pro Circuit Kawasaki and had a previous best of fourth in a moto. He ran third forever in moto one before settling for a fifth. Second moto he was top five, definitely looked a little tired near the end and settled for an eleventh. But still, he over-performed my expectations for sure, one would think he will get better as well, right?
-I think I’m surprised that the PC Kawasaki’s were that good? I know they found improvements going into 2026 and I was told that outdoors they’ll be good but starts were there for almost everyone and they sounded sick (in a good way). The Yamaha’s are still, by default, the outdoor motor to have and we’ll see at Lakewood where the PC bikes are at.
-I’m surprised by Julien Beaumer. That 11th in moto one is what I expected, he didn’t have a good sophomore season before he got hurt and also, he got seriously hurt! So, one would reasonably think he would take some time to get back into it right? Well in the second moto I was surprised he took it home for a second. I thought he’d drop back more for sure. Great work, JuJu!
-I’m going to say this with peace and love and knowing what a bad ass he is, but I was surprised that Chase Sexton was that…good? We know it’s not gone well (yet two wins in SX?) and look, without the crashes he prob goes 3-5 or something like that. Which fighting for the podium is…good? I know he’s Chase effing Sexton but the bar on green has been lowered a bit. So, yeah, I was just afraid he’d be sixth or seventh and nothing happen to him. Which would then lead to more frustration. So, yay for Chase? I’m so confused.
-It’s just one round, lots more to go, but I think maybe we’ll be surprised by Garrett Marchbanks at the end of the year. He qualified eighth, he got eighth in the second moto, and we all saw what happened in moto one with Eli Tomac. G’s good and he’s got a year of experience on 450’s in MX. Not saying he’s going to get top tens a lot but also not NOT saying that.
-Speaking of Tomac, I was surprised by him getting another hit to the body at the opening round. Wow, man, it’s been rough as he’s crashed hard (and DNF’d) at three out of the last four races. This one looking like the most serious of the bunch. I don’t think we’ll see him for a while.
-Alpinestars gear choice for Jett was a surprise. Unofficially they’ve won just about every round of my prestigious “LIT KIT” this season. The brand is always on top of stuff and having one of their riders look great. Well, the return of the Jett came, and they decided that poop brown would be the color. Oh, okay then. A rare miss from A-Stars.
NOT SURPRISED
-Not surprised Hunter Lawrence won, there was talk of having a SX hangover, but I wasn’t having that-HL is too much in control of his emotions to let his defeat in SLC run into this series—and when you look at his results in 450MX, they’re pretty incredible. So maybe a surprise at how dominant he was but not surprised he won. Great start for Hunter Lawrence and I’ve taken to calling him “The Package” because he’s got it all, great bike, he’s fit, he’s fast, he’s mentally strong—he’s got the package you need to win this title.
-Jorge Prado’s first 450MX podium also not a surprise. Prado’s been a rejuvenation this season and he’s erasing all the narratives we had about him. And he’s better in MX! He’s been riding at Pala this entire time and he’s a great starter, four-time MXGP champ and yeah man, 2-2 was a great start for Jorge. He got slowly grinded down by Hunter, but he’s got to be stoked on his day.
-Not surprised that Haiden Deegan finished where he did. He was one RJ Hampshire tangling with Mitchell Oldenburg on the last lap of moto two away from finishing fourth overall. So, the kid got a fifth with 15th place starts in his first 450MX national. Pretty good right? All the BS of what Deegs says and what he’s wearing aside, I thought he’d be easily top five with maybe a podium. He will figure out the 450 a bit more, when you’re in the battle like he was, you forget about how to ride a 450 and your natural instincts kick in which caused him to, IMO, override the bike. He’s fine, podiums and maybe wins are coming and it’s just year one.
-Not surprised by Seth Hammaker winning. He’s a Hunter Lawrence-lite (ironic that he rides with HL as well) in that he’s got no real weakness. It used to be crashing but he’s better at that (I think some of those crashes late in SX were him pushing it to match Cole Davies and not his usual MO) now. He’s going to be tough to beat every weekend and could podium the other guys to death.
-Not surprised that Levi Kitchen had an inconsistent day. His starts have been an issue and when he nails them in moto one, he can win. Duh. But his issues in moto two all came from a bad start, I watched him off the line and to me, he was just late. Then he gets collected into a pile-up. Man, his charge was impressive, 37th to 13th and with only the 14th best lap time at that. Tells me he’s in shape. Kitch’s entire title hopes rest on his ability to start well.
-Cole Davies was what I thought he would be which is a top five guy. I don’t think he’s on the title winning list for me, but he certainly will be with some more seasoning. If I’m Wil Hahn, am I worried a bit about the drop off in the second moto? Yeah, but also, he had the best lap as well.
-Not surprised by some big name factory 450MX guys probably wondering what in the hell happened. Justin Barcia (17-16), Jordon Smith (15-23) and Cooper Webb (13-13) were all not where they thought they would be. But man, the field is stacked. We in the media like to say that every year but truly, this is a deep field. The only guy who was a “wow, look at that” was KTM off-roader Dante Oliveira who was on it in getting 16th OA. Other than that, everyone ahead of these guys, it made sense you know? 450MX is DEEP bro.
Thanks for reading OBS from the opener! Lots to dive into with this one and looking forward to the rest of the rounds. You can email me at matthes@racerxonline.com to chat about this race or anything else.
