The biggest event on the 2025 calendar has finally arrived. Ironman Raceway hosts this year’s Motocross of Nations, and wow, it is going to be a doozy. Could there possibly be any more chaos leading up to it? Prior to the Las Vegas SuperMotocross World Final, things seemed relatively calm. Team USA had what looked like its best possible team on paper and would go in as a favorite, along with a few other key countries that we’ll discuss. The madness that was Las Vegas threw a wrench into all of that and left Team USA reeling in uncertainty. For several days after, no one was really sure who was going to be on or off the team. Eli Tomac felt like the only lock, but I think even he was not sure what to think. Riders were having surgery, canceling vacations, and practicing on different-sized motorcycles… it was all happening. The AMA’s Mike Pelletier likely didn’t sleep for several days trying to game out how this would all shape up. In the end, Deegan decided to race with a plated collarbone, RJ Hampshire stepped up like he always does, and Tomac remained the anchor. The odd man out here was Justin Cooper, who had already begun work on the 250 in case Deegan wouldn’t be able to go. His status has now gone from reserve to active, and Team USA is lucky to have such talent on standby. It’s been a wild 12 days and likely will only get wilder as bikes fire in Indiana.
The Ironman track is a familiar one for the AMA Pro Motocross family. Significant changes in 2024 and 2025 have created more viewing areas and added variety to the layout. It’s a much faster racetrack than, say, a decade ago. Many of the switchbacks have been removed, and speeds have increased as a result. It looks to flow much better than it did back then; however, with less stop-and-go type racing. Who does the faster track favor? Let’s revisit that on Sunday evening.
As for who to watch this weekend, I believe there are a few clear favorites and many more wildcards in the field. The interesting part is that the wildcards could absolutely win this thing if they overperform in key moments. Whether it’s youth, inexperience, or both, the teams less talked about may play a big role on Sunday.
The Favs
Australia comes in as the defending champs and looks poised to do it again. Jett and Hunter Lawrence might be the two fastest riders on the planet and lead the Aussies. Kyle Webster put in one strong moto last season, and that was enough to get the job done. This year, Webster has experience on the racetrack, having raced it this past August. He will again have a factory HRC 250 underneath him, which is a big coup at such a tough event against 450s. I see this crew as the odds-on favorites.
The Americans were looking rock solid on Saturday morning before the Vegas Final. They were likely co-favorites with the Aussies and ready to fight for it. Post-Vegas, who knows what may happen? Tomac remains a constant, but he faces the tough task of matching Jett in the MXGP class. Hampshire hasn’t been able to beat Hunter often this summer (if at all), and that will now be his quest in the MX Open field. Deegan felt like a mortal lock to best Webster in the 250 field (amongst all of the other 250s), but with Cooper stepping in to race the 250 after two straight seasons aboard a 450, we simply don’t know quite what to expect. He’s been logging laps on the smaller bike since Vegas, and he’s always been a solid talent. Cooper isn’t the type of rider who will sell you short on effort, either, so if there’s an opportunity for Cooper, expect him to do everything he can to squeeze through that window. This race is always crazy, though, and theoretical certainties often become nothing burgers when chaos reigns. Team USA will need their best to make this a home-soil win.
The French team is always a sneaky effort. They epitomize teamwork and camaraderie. They work together to maximize angles and efficiency. Will that be enough in 2025? Tough to say. Romain Febvre is the new MXGP World Champ and will be the team anchor. He will need help from his teammates Maxime Renaux and Mathis Valin, though. Renaux is capable, but his inconsistency has been a real problem. A former MX2 champ and MXGP winner, he showed America his best stuff at this event in 2022. Valin is more of a question mark on this stage and could be the lynchpin. He is an MX2 rookie but has impressed in his debut year. He is also a great starter, which is a very valuable asset for MXoN. The real question, though, is can he handle the pressure of this moment and live up to what could have been if Tom Vialle had decided to join the French contingent? The French seem to find a way to be in the fight every time; however, I don’t expect this to be any different.
Team Netherlands has talent and experience, but the obvious miss here is the absence of Jeffrey Herlings. Whether Coldenhoff or Vlaanderen, Herlings feels like an upgrade over both. His form at the time of team selection was the issue, it seems, Herlings not wanting to be the weak link for the orange team. It might end up being the difference between winning and losing, though, as Herlings has found himself in the month of September and could have been a race winner come Sunday. If the Dutch do it, I think it will be through consistency and not moto dominance.
Wild Cards
Belgium presents an interesting combination here. Bringing youth and lots of upside, the Coenen brothers (Sacha and Lucas) are teamed up with a second-generation superstar in Liam Everts. Both Coenens could and should be inside the top five in their respective classes, assuming they maintain their starting prowess. The questions here surround Everts on the bigger bike and whether he can summon the form he showed early in the season. Secondarily, Sacha has shown a propensity for huge crashes, and one or two of those could derail this Belgian team very quickly. Still, they have the talent to be real contenders if they execute. Keep an eye on this trio. They ride the fence between “wildcard” and “favorites” for me.
The Germans haven’t won since 2012, but this team has some spark. Ken Roczen is the veteran anchor and will need to podium in his class for any chance. Simon Langenfelder brings serious upside to the MX2 class and is fresh off his first-ever World Championship. The variable here is newcomer Max Spies. His relative lack of experience will be a point of emphasis, as well as the difficult task of taking on the MXGP regulars that he’s been unable to best this season. He just needs one heroic effort, à la Marcus Schiffer 13 years ago.
Italy won on home soil in 2021 and will look for a throwback effort. Tony Cairoli is the headliner and has been a huge part of this effort for what feels like a quarter-century. Former MX2 champ Andrea Adamo gives the team some serious lift and could be a dark horse winner in that class. In a familiar storyline, pressure will be on Andrea Bonacorsi to perform in MX Open. He has more to give than some of the other question marks, though, as he has really found his stride on the 450. Don’t be shocked to see a 3-5 type performance from the big youngster.
Slovenia is an interesting team to watch. Tim Gajser will make his last appearance on the Honda HRC team after a legendary stint. He won the MXGP class a year ago, passing Jett Lawrence in last-lap heroic fashion. He will be backed up by a feel-good story in Jan Pancar, a privateer who has really turned heads in 2025. The third rider will tell the tale here, as Jaka Peklaj will want to hold up his end of the bargain.
Spain should and could be a real player in this field, but they’re missing their best. With Jorge Prado out, the team of Ruben Fernandez, Guillem Farres, and Francisco Garcia will have to make it happen. The Garcia/Prado switch is a big blow for Spain’s chances, but with the drama surrounding Prado, who knows how that would have gone, anyway.
There are other teams that could be mentioned because of their talent, but I can’t see them making a real dent in the top five. The Swiss have Seewer and Guillod, but Seewer hasn’t gelled with the Ducati as much as anyone would have hoped. The Latvians have brothers Janis and Karlis Reisulis and Pauls Jonass, but none of them have been top-five mainstays in MXGP or MX2 as of late. Isak Gifting could give the Swedes a lift, and Conrad Mewse is a dark horse if he brings his best stuff. Also, Jo Shimoda makes his 450 stateside debut, which could get Japan into the A final.
Bold Predictions
Team USA is unable to hear their motorcycles due to crowd noise the entire weekend. Not once, not ever.
Team France hires the descendants of the team who helped crack the Enigma Code to strategize their weekend.
Jeffrey Herlings enjoys his weekend at the beach… race.
About 25,000 fans ask, “Who are those Coenen kids?” throughout the weekend.
My Picks
Australia
USA
Belgium
