Here we go again. Racing changes quickly, but if you think back just 18 months, you’ll remember a 2022 Monster Energy AMA Supercross campaign dominated by team switches. Eli Tomac, Jason Anderson, and Malcolm Stewart went 1-2-3 in the 450 standings after team switches…to each other’s old teams! Yep, Tomac switched to Stewart’s old team, Stewart switched to Anderson’s old team, and Anderson switched to Tomac’s old team. They all got better.
“Fresh start” was the buzz term of 2022, although the riders themselves never really subscribed to that Tomac said on day one that he wasn’t making a switch for a mental refresh. He just thought the Yamaha could perform better for him than the Kawasaki. Be it mental, physical, or mechanical, the changes worked. No one could really follow suit in 2023, because of multi-year deals. Thus, the countdown was onto 2024, and the moves came early. Few know exactly when Chase Sexton actually signed with Red Bull KTM, but it was earlier than you’d expect. Cooper Webb was leaving that same KTM team for Monster Energy Yamaha Star Racing by early spring. So, it goes.
We now have a nearly the full 450 field on factory teams set for 2024. We’ll run through some talking points here with The List:
Webb, KTM to Yamaha: Webb’s move doesn’t seem new anymore because he debuted with Yamaha in the SuperMotocross World Championship. It went okay. He was fourth in points and podiumed the final race in Los Angeles, but at no point did he threaten front runners Sexton, Jett Lawrence, or Ken Roczen. That’s the standard he would like to judge himself against. Remember Webb was ahead of Sexton in supercross points before he went out with injury at round 15. Webb’s battles with Roczen are legendary. He most certainly considers himself at their level. So, now the off-season begins with Webb looking to close the gap from SMX, but that’s not as daunting as it sounds, because he’s operated at their level before. He’s a two-time 450SX supercross champion, and while Webb never jumps off the page with “flying at the test track” hype, it would be foolish to count him out in a 17-round season. Plus, Star provides such a perfect personality mesh with Webb, as we’ve seen before. If Webb rolls up to a race next year with red plates on his blue bike, do not be surprised.
[Of course, we must grade all preseason prognostications on a curve, because Jett Lawrence is getting dropped into the 450SX field for ’24, which might mean past results do not guarantee future performance for anyone. More on that topic in a bit.]
sexton, Honda to KTM: Because we’ve already seen Webb back on a Yamaha, Sexton’s KTM switch will garner the most hype over the next few months. It all revolves around one question: Can the KTM cure the crashing? Sexton won’t race a KTM until Anaheim, and it will have a #1 plate on it when he does. There are rumors that the bike you’ve seen him riding in social media, which is a current-year machine, might change before the new season begins, anyway. KTM evolves quickly.
Some of this reminds us of the Tomac switch to Yamaha. We could dive deep inside the mental mumbo jumbo of Chase “needing a change” or trying to get out of the same truck as Lawrence. Or, we could find out this whole thing was mechanical, not mental, and is simply about a bike. We’ll see.
Tomac, Not Retiring: In this game, the big names that eat big budgets must move first before other decisions get made. Once Sexton and Webb were off the board, other riders could have started signing, but there was one hold up, via Tomac’s unique situation. Eli could have retired after that amazing 2022 season. He came back for supercross 2023. He enjoyed that, too, so he extended through Pro Motocross and SMX, only to tear his Achilles tendon. This put Eli’s future status up in the air, which held up other moves. Tomac needed some extra time to decide on ’24, understandably. He finally announced his new Yamaha deal, which is at least for supercross in 2024, in August. There aren’t any questions about Eli and a YZ450F. You can only question if he can get back to his old level after a major injury, and if the level of everyone else has stepped up.
Anderson, Stewart, Barcia, Roczen Re-Up: Anderson’s 2023 wasn’t as good as 2022, but he and Monster Energy Kawasaki re upped. Similar story with Stewart over at Rockstar Energy Husqvarna. Stewart was sidelined with a knee injury for almost the entire year, but he signed a two-year extension in May that will go through the 2025 season. They both had teammates locked in. Adam Cianciarulo remains at Kawasaki, his contract taking him through 2023 and ’24. Anderson and Cianciarulo still have something new via the revamped Kawasaki KX450, already drawing raves with Romain Febvre’s spectacular MXGP campaign on a prototype. Over at Husky, Christian Craig’s two-year deal takes him through 2024. And Justin Barcia has added another two years with Troy Lee Designs/Red Bull GasGas.
Recently, Roczen announced a return to Progressive/Ectsar Suzuki. What a difference a year makes there, right? Roczen was rideless in October of 2022. He’s gone from “I wonder what he will do?” to “I can’t wait to see how well he does!”
Ferrandis Out, J-Coop In: One other change is coming soon. We await Dylan Ferrandis’ status for ’24. For a while, it has seemed like signing with Roczen’s team was imminent, but still no word. In the meantime, with Dylan leaving Star Yamaha, the squad bumped Justin Cooper up full time as a third 450 guy. It makes sense since Tomac’s status long term isn’t really know. Even if Eli retires in May, Star is still sitting pretty with two Coopers.
Jett’s Change Isn’t a Change: Now back to the biggest change in 2024 450SX. It actually isn’t a change. Jett Lawrence is (obviously) ready for full-time 450 racing, but Honda will also move Hunter Lawrence to the big class. That’s not a team change, but it’s a big change for the series. Jett comes into the premier class after raising the bar in Pro Motocross, and taking the SMX title, which oh-by-the-way included a victory in Los Angeles on a very supercross-like track. Personally, I say you should slow the roll on all 450SX rookie hype, but this is not the usual situation. Jett is already well proven on a 450 and is also not crash prone. Hunter will be in more of the traditional rookie situation, learning 450 racing in supercross. It’s a steep climb for anyone.
In the case of 2024 Monster Energy AMA Supercross, the biggest stories will be on all the changes: the big names who are switching (Sexton and Webb), the big names that are returning to full strength (Tomac and Roczen), and the big name (Jett Lawrence) that is expected to what he’s already done, but now in a new class. Then, we can start looking at all the other talent on the gate and building the usual #deepfield hype we expect coming into Anaheim.
See you at the races. Sooner than you think!