The Monster Energy FIM Motocross of Nations is much more complex than any other race we watch. This is the only team event and the only one with such a prestigious title determined in a one-weekend event. That makes it both very different and also very important, and introduces racing luck into the equation at a much higher level. We can talk forever about what riders and what teams look good on paper, but a quick twisted ankle, first-turn crash, or bike problem can change everything. Beyond that, you have to keep up with elaborate math. Each three-rider team races in three motos, with two riders in each, collecting six finishes but then dropping one. Then, add 250s racing against 450s, and some riders competing on displacements they didn’t use during the regular season.
So, taking all that into account, who can win this weekend? Let’s dive in.
Team USA: Christian Craig, RJ Hampshire, Aaron Plessinger
Just so you know we’re being fair, we’re listing these teams in order not as a “power ranking,” but based on last year’s results, which determine the riders’ numbers and their listing on the official MXoN entry list. We’re not saying Team USA—which doesn’t have any of the riders that were on last year’s winning team—is the favorite, however, we are saying that in a one-day, team race like this, they can actually win. Would Team USA have preferred to have Chase Sexton and a healthy Eli Tomac racing this year? Sure. But this won’t come down to Sexton v. Christian Craig or Tomac v. Aaron Plessinger. This is three riders racing over six motos trying to out-score everyone else who showed up. Often, this race comes down to who avoids the bad luck. My mind keeps going back to RedBud 2018, when the Dutch team obliterated the motos with Glenn Coldenhoff and Jeffrey Herlings, but lost because Calvin Vlaanderen got hit in the eye with a rock in his first moto and suffered two DNFs. Or a highly-anticipated USA v. France battle in France in 2000, which ended abruptly when 250 World Champion Fredrick Bolley broke his nose in Saturday qualifying. Or Jason Anderson winning a moto in 2016 only to get landed on after taking the checkered flag.
This Team USA needs to outscore the other teams that are racing, not the Tomac/Sexton/Justin Cooper team from a year ago.
If you had told someone back in May, when the AMA Pro Motocross Championship began, that RJ Hampshire and Aaron Plessinger would be on Team USA, it wouldn’t have seemed that crazy. They’re good riders. (Remember, RJ won the first 250 Class moto of Pro Motocross this summer!) Yes, Sexton was faster than Plessinger. Haiden Deegan outpointed Hampshire, but they were actually close all year until the late stages of the season. Both need good starts and to stay upright, as this race comes down to that, first. Of course, this brings in worries about a Hampshire tip-over because RJ goes for it and is not a stranger to crashing. But he’s also not a stranger to winning.
If you wanna dig really deep into the math, a strong 250 performance is the biggest difference maker at this event. Even the 250 riders score points on where they finish the race overall, against 450s. Thus, if your 250 rider can get a fourth in a moto and the next best 250 rider can only finish 10th, that’s a massive six point swing in favor of your team. The gap is usually smaller with 450 riders.
So, if RJ can log the race of his life, it’s on for Team USA.
Then you have Christian Craig, who is just a mystery because he has not raced at all since a late crash in Monster Energy AMA Supercross, and has never raced a 450 Husqvarna in motocross. If he’s 100 percent and dialed in with the bike, CC is a solid rider. He was fifth in last year’s 450MX standings. That’s fine. So really, the question is if he’s truly ready. Certainly Craig is putting in all the work he can to get there.
“I wanna do well, especially with the season I’ve had, it wasn’t that great. I really want to end 2023 on a good note and come swinging into next year,” said Craig on Monday night’s PulpMX Show. “I’m not taking this race lightly at all. I’m going in there to do well and put my best results in. I think all of us are. We’re going into try to defend this title.” Craig has had over six weeks on the bike now and he says he feels ready to go. What’s also cool is he says he watches something from Ernee every single night, just studying film.
One other thing to note: Team USA has way less pressure than most. So that could be something.
Team France: Romain Febvre, Maxime Renaux, Tom Vialle
A loaded team with proven organization and on home soil. Wow. While we just listed examples of this race coming down to luck, it was not the case back in 2015, when Team France and Team USA both had awesome days but the French team was just a smidge better, powered by the home crowd. Febvre was arguably the best MXGP rider in the second half of the year (he had the most wins, but we say arguably because Jorge Prado was playing the consistency card all year). Renaux’s title hopes were washed away with injury but he returned late in the year, and, hey, he’s still the only person to ever win a 450 motocross moto against Jett Lawrence (RedBud’s final MXoN moto last year). Vialle is a two-time MX2 World Champ and gets to go back home. Lots to like if you want to bet on this team.
Team Australia: Jett Lawrence, Hunter Lawrence, Dean Ferris
France might be the favorite if you run some data, especially if you mix in the home-race factor, but Team Australia could have something that trumps all math and predictions: the magic of the Lawrence brothers. Are they any heights they can’t scale? Anything they can’t accomplish? We have not seen Jett Lawrence race most of his MXoN competitors much, but he just went 22-0 in AMA Pro Motocross. If he logs that type of performance again and goes 1-1, well, that certainly tilts things. If you’re asking Hunter Lawrence to outscore Vialle and Hampshire, well, he could say he’s been doing that all year. Even Ferris is a perfect third rider, because he’s a veteran who has raced this event a lot and has spent several years racing MXGP. If the goal here is to not screw this up, he’s a good bet to not screw this up.
Team Italy: Alberto Forato, Andrea Adamo, Andrea Bonacorsi
Tony Cairoli is not walking back in that door for Team Italy. He’s finally done after racing the 2022 event in a season of partial retirement. With Cairoli, Italy won this event in 2021, in yet another year of crazy luck determining so much.
That said, Italy still had a decent team on paper with the lovable Alberto Forato, new MX2 World Champion Andrea Adamo, and perennial MXGP front runner Mattia Guadagnini. Unfortunately Guadagnini has missed time this year with injuries, and then recently hurt his calf muscle and will be unable to compete. In comes new EMX250 Champion Andrea Bonacorsi, racing a 450 (Adamo is the 250 rider). Honestly, I wish I could give you some sort of idea on how he will stack up, but that’s tough—EMX250 is the “feeder” series into MX2, so it’s hard to know where Bonacorsi fits in against bona fide GP and AMA racers. Especially on a 450. Maybe this could be a breakout?
- MXoN
Monster Energy FIM Motocross of Nations
Sunday, October 8- Opening Press ConferenceLiveOctober 6 - 5:00 AM
- Gate Picks BallotLiveOctober 6 - 6:00 AM
- Teams PresentationLiveOctober 6 - 8:00 AM
- MXGP QualifyingLiveOctober 7 - 8:20 AM
- MX2 QualifyingLiveOctober 7 - 9:20 AM
- Open QualifyingLiveOctober 7 - 10:20 AM
- C FinalLiveOctober 7 - 12:00 PM
- B FinalLiveOctober 8 - 4:50 AM
- Race 1 (MXGP & MX2)LiveOctober 8 - 7:00 AM
- Race 2 (MX2 & Open)LiveOctober 8 - 8:30 AM
- Race 3 (Open & MXGP)LiveOctober 8 - 10:00 AM
- Race 1 (MXGP & MX2)October 8 - 12:00 PM
- Race 2 (MX2 & Open)October 8 - 1:00 PM
- Race 3 (Open & MXGP)October 8 - 2:00 PM
Belgium: Liam Everts, Jago Geerts, Lucas Coenen
Some things never change, and Belgium being a contender at Motocross of Nations is one of those things. That even includes this year’s very young team, which is so young that all three riders were actually MX2 (250) riders during the 2023 season. Jago Geerts, the luckless annual contender for the MX2 World Championship, has already proven himself on a 450, as he took second overall in a moto on a YZ450F at RedBud last year. Liam Everts was much-improved this season, taking second behind Adamo in MX2. We’ll see how well the third-generation rider fairs on a 450. He at least has some experience after being the MX2 rider for the team last year.
Then there’s 16-year-old Lucas Coenen, who was at the times the fastest MX2 rider in 2023. As you’d expect from a fast 16-year-old, he also had some crashes. This is where the one-day MXoN format becomes a blessing or a curse. Coenen could have his breakout party on Sunday. Or he could struggle and cost his team. When you’re racing for all the marbles on one day, the pendulum swings massively. Coenen’s last few GPs weren’t so strong, but he still could be poised to have American fans asking “Whoa, who is this Coenen kid?” come Sunday night.
Spain: Jorge Prado, Ruben Fernandez, Oriol Oliver
Spain has never been a powerhouse nation in motocross the way it is in MotoGP, but they’re on the verge of something big, with Jorge Prado fulfilling his potential all the way to the new MXGP World Championship, and a solid teammate in this event with Ruben Fernandez, who has proven he can win GPs. It is possible to win this event with two good riders if they carry their weight and the third man just delivers one halfway decent finish. It’s the model Germany rode to the win in 2012. Ken Roczen and Max Nagl were really good, and Marcus Schiffer came through with a seventh-place finish in a moto to seal the deal. The team didn’t even win a moto but it won the event (it helped that Roczen was 11 points better than anyone else in MX2. Again, a killer 250 ride makes a massive difference).
Spain lost its third rider, David Braceras, to injury recently, but Oriol Oliver, the replacement, has had similar results in MX2 so that’s not a huge change. They need Prado and Fernandez to be at their best, and hope Oliver can somehow log one decent finish.
The Netherlands: Gleen Coldenhoff, Calvin Vlaanderen, Kay De Wolf
No Jeffrey Herlings again this year for the Dutch, which is seeing its window of MXoN domination begin to close. By 2018 it sure looked like they were going to win a bunch of these, but so far 2019 on home soil sand stands as the only victory. They could get it this year, even without Herlings, via Glenn Coldenhoff, Calvin Vlaanderen, and Kay De Wolf. De Wolf is an explosive MX2 rider who could really shake things up if he’s on. Wow, De Wolf, Coenen, and Hampshire sure make for a spicy MX2 division. Lots of Husqvarna talent! Vlaandaren and Coldenhoff are capable, veteran guys. However, if this race was run on sand, the odds for Team Netherlands would go up immensely.
Germany: Ken Roczen, Simon Laengenfelder, Tom Koch
Okay, remember what we said above about that 2012 Team Germany road map? Well, it could be in play again, with Roczen back (incredibly, Ken raced his first MXoN in 2009!) and the capable Simon Laengenfelder, an MX2 title threat. We’ve all seen how well Roczen is riding lately. Laengenfelder ended the year with 1-3-4-2-2 results in MX2. Koch has raced MXGP the last few years and is a 10-20 guy. If Roczen and Laengenfelder crush it and Koch logs one good moto….
Others
This is where we list other teams so if a guy wins a moto or a team gets on the podium no one says we didn’t mention them. Team Great Britian is always a lovable bunch but this year’s group is much different from the Max Anstie/Dean Wilson/Tommy Searle/Shaun Simpson combo that has raced this thing seemingly forever. This year it’s Ben Watson, Conrad Mewse and Josh Gilbert. So, we’ve lost some classic Brits, but we do get plenty of the old-school MXON hits: Tanel Leok is back on Team Estonia for like the 50th time, Team Switzerland has Jeremy Seewer, Arnaud Tonus, and Valentin Guillod for what feels like the 15th time. Matthes is probably gonna do some muttering about Team Canada. Multi-time MXGP World Champion Tim Gajser is back racing the event this year, and while Slovenia is not a podium threat, you know he’d love to do some winning on his own. As we said, there’s so much to watch and so much going on at this event!
