450SX Title Math

Eli Tomac put in a valiant effort on Wednesday to come from dead last to second place. The only problem for Tomac was the man who won: Cooper Webb, who Tomac had to beat to lock up the title. Well, with just one more race left the scenario is a little bit different now, and Tomac has to do very little to punch his ticket to championship city. Tomac has several more race wins than Webb, so even in the event of a tie in points, the title would still go to Tomac. Tomac, who has 22 points on Webb, only has to score four points (19th place) to lock the title if Webb wins. If Webb finishes second, all Tomac has to do is score a single point, which he’d do just by making the main. Expect Tomac to put this thing to bed on Sunday. –Aaron Hansel 

250SX West Title Math

In the West there are three riders still in contention, Dylan Ferrandis, Austin Forkner, and Justin Cooper, although with a 17-point deficit, Cooper’s chances are dismal at best. Forkner, on the other hand, trails Ferrandis by just seven points, which means he’s got a real shot at it. If Forkner wins, which is going to be tough considering he’ll also be racing against guys like Chase Sexton, Shane McElrath, and Colt Nichols, he’ll need Ferrandis to finish fourth or worse. That’d put the two of them in a tie, with Forkner getting the win due to his higher win count. If Forkner takes second, he’d need Ferrandis to finish seventh or worse. If you’re Ferrandis, all you need to know is, third or better takes the championship, no matter what. -Hansel

250SX East Title Math

With a six-point lead, Sexton is in a similar position as Ferrandis. If McElrath wins, Sexton has to finish third or better. If McElrath takes second, Sexton has to finish sixth or better. That’d put them in a tie, but Sexton would get the title because he’s got more wins than McElrath. And finally, if McElrath takes third, Sexton would need to finish eighth or better. Bottom line, third or better clinches for Sexton no matter what. -Hansel

The Showdown

This Sunday’s 250SX racing is unlike other rounds of Monster Energy AMA Supercross, which usually only run one division, East or West, of 250SX races. But the finale features a Showdown format, which combines both classes, meaning there’s going to be a whole lot more talent stuffed into a 22-person gate than normal. That will greatly complicate the championships on both coasts. For example, Sexton is a lock for third or better, right? Usually yes, but he usually isn’t racing against guys like Cooper, Ferrandis, Forkner, and more, either. Same goes for Ferrandis and Forkner, who will be competing against McElrath and Sexton. With all the extra two-wheeled genius on the line, this Sunday’s 250SX race is going to be wild, especially with a pair of championships on the line. -Hansel

The Top Ten

It’s not too often we talk about the battle for 10th in points, but with tomorrow being the last race of the season, it’s time to take a look at some of the close points battles, and right now Justin Hill, 10th (199 pts), and Aaron Plessinger, 11th (195 pts), are only separated by four points. To make matters more interesting, Blake Baggett (193 pts) is just two points back of Plessinger. That’s three riders separated by just six points, all vying to get into the top ten! ­-Hansel

This is it?

Chad Reed’s swan song season ends on Sunday, but that doesn’t yet mean he will never race a supercross again. What it does mean is after Sunday, for the first time since 2002, Chad Reed will no longer be competing as a full-time supercross athlete. The two-time premier class champion has placed himself in the record books already as the man with the most career starts and podiums in supercross, but his legacy stretches beyond any statistics. As only the third rider ever to win the Monster Energy AMA Supercross title while donning a foreign flag (Pierre Karsmakers and Jean-Michel Bayle), Reed laid down the foundation for a whole new onslaught of foreign riders to either hop over from his native Australia  or to come from the Grand Prix scene, where Reed raced in 2001. Reed also became a fan favorite at many stops on the schedule and it will be weird not hearing that same roar from the crowd every week. But Chad’s not completely done, and even hinted in his farewell press conference Thursday that coming back to Angels Stadium again was a likely proposition. But if somehow, someway, this really is Chad’s last race… It was a hell of a ride! -Kellen Brauer

Fight For Your Ride

There is still the Lucas Oil AMA Pro Motocross Championship to be run and not every contract for 2021 needs to be signed this second, but teams do look at supercross with a keen eye and this will be the last time for riders in a contract year to impress.  Soon-to-be 250SX class graduates like Dylan Ferrandis and Shane McElrath have yet to confirm 2021 plans yet, and riders like Justin Barcia and Malcolm Stewart who are in the same boat. The silly season is no doubt on a lot of riders’ minds right now. That extra incentive may be enough to see a few more breakout rides at the finale. Look for a few more surprises on Sunday. -Brauer

And Unlikely Third

The attrition rate in the 250SX East Region championship has been unfortunate to say the least, but it has created a unique opportunity for some. Garrett Marchbanks will not race on Sunday due to an injury and sits on 119 points. GEICO Honda’s Jo Shimoda sits just 12 points back on 107 points and Rockstar Energy Husqvarna’s Jalek Swoll is 19 points back on 100 points. Amid their fight for top rookie on the East, both riders have a shot at landing themselves third in the championship. which could be a huge boost of morale for either of them. Shimoda has the best shot of eclipsing Marchbanks’ point total but remember that all the best riders from both coasts will be on the track this Sunday and it won’t be a walk in the park to snag those 12 points. -Brauer

Husky Steals Two

Rockstar Energy Husqvarna can own the moniker of the most solid team effort in the 450SX class this year as Jason Anderson, Zach Osborne, and Dean Wilson sit fifth, seventh, and eighth in the championship, respectively. That could even be a bit better after Sunday as Anderson has the chance to leapfrog Justin Barcia, who is just five point ahead of him, for fourth and Osborne could leapfrog Malcolm Stewart, who is just seven points ahead of him, for sixth. Both Anderson and Osborne have been consistently fighting for podiums and wins down the stretch and their efforts may just help them wrap up this season on a high note. -Brauer

The Safe Pick

Eli Tomac has been indecisive on gate selection through the first six rounds in Salt Lake City. He has continued to hint at a desire to play it safe with his gate choices, to avoid getting caught up in any first turn melees. His boldest gate pick came at Salt Lake City 5 where he lined up two from the box in the middle and actually got a great jump, but he was nearly put on the ground by Cooper Webb in turn one. Because of the odd chance something goes wrong in turn one, Tomac may continue to run inside gate picks even if it means he gets swallowed up on the start. Keep an eye on his gate pick for Sunday. -Brauer

Check out Tomac’s starts here in Salt Lake City in this Race eXamination video, prior to the Salt Lake City 6 Supercross: