This week I wanted to take a look at the top five riders in the 250 East Region and the 450 class. With seven rounds remaining on the schedule (six for 250’s), we are coming down to the home stretch. Self-evaluation is very important for riders to progress and from the outside, this is how I see it.
250SX East Region
1. Jeremy Martin: J-Mart took over the points lead last weekend in the chaotic Canadian round of Toronto. As he was picking his bike up in the first turn, I doubt he thought he would end up on the podium and also be leaving with the red plate. He has been solid thus far with scores of 4-1-2 and seems to have shaken his inconsistency issues that plagued prior supercross seasons. This is his last year on the 250 so I am sure he is locked in on making this East Coast series count. To win, he is going to have to be up front each week as there are several other riders with the same goal and Justin Hill is hitting his stride. The #1 ingredient he needs to maintain is good starts. If he can be in the top three on the start each week, the rest will take care of itself. I do expect him to have his hands full with Justin Hill, though,.
2. Justin Hill: Hill made the Toronto race win look very easy. He had over twenty seconds on the field and was really the only rider to completely avoid any trouble. With first turn crashes and flat tires everywhere else, Hill was the lone picture of calm. He is only two points out of the lead and very much riding a wave of momentum. I think Hill may have the most speed in the class right now but he has never been able to string together consistent podium-level weekends until this season. He looks like a different rider this year, more like the guy we expected, but didn’t get, last year. I have a feeling this title will come down to Hill and Jeremy Martin.
3. Malcolm Stewart: Mookie was a title favorite for many entering this series. He is so flashy and has so much raw speed that it’s difficult to see anyone else beating him if you’re using the eye test. His biggest bugaboo has been untimely mistakes, though. This weekend’s first turn crash could happen to anyone and he fought valiantly to get back to sixth. If he somehow manages to get this title back in his grasp, he can look back on his Toronto ride as a good reason why. Yes, he still lost seven more points to lJeremy Martin but with the chaos in Toronto, it could have been much worse. To win this title, he will need to win races moving forward. He is only ten points out of the lead but both of the riders in front of him look to be rock solid. He is going to have to beat them week in and week out and prove he is simply better.
4. Martin Davalos: Marty, Marty, Marty. According to his team, he was dealing with “family/personal issues” and missed the Toronto round of the series. I am a firm believer that there was a visa issue with re-entry back into America and he chose to not chance it. I understand the team wanting to keep the details generic but it’s a bit transparent. It’s a shame that paperwork could derail a championship run but the smallest details can be the difference between winning and losing. Similarly to Dean Wilson in 2010, it’s a tough blow to Martin’s title chances and he now sits twenty points out of the lead after holding the red plate just seven days before. To have a shot,, he will need to win all the way to Vegas.
5. Aaron Plessinger: Plessinger was sick at Daytona and then had a big crash in his Toronto heat race start that left him banged up and into the LCQ. That left him in a bad starting spot for the main event and to make matters worse, his teammate Jeremy Martin went careening into his bike after Mookie ignited the first turn crash. It was a rough and tumble night for Plessinger who many had as a consistent podium guy for this series. He is tied with Davalos for fourth and twenty points down on Martin. I’m not sure if a championship is in the cards for Plessinger this season but he still could win a race before this is over. He has the ability and talent but starts have plagued him so far.
450 class
1. Ryan Dungey: What else can you say about Dungey that hasn’t been said? Even though he only has one win in the last four weeks, he is still in firm control of this championship. He has a thirty-four point lead and just surpassed Chad Reed’s record with twenty-six consecutive podium finishes. Ryan is the last person a competitor would choose to hand a big lead to and for good reason. He has been in this spot many times and knows how to bring it home. I think he will continue to approach each week in the same fashion, but the pressure to win each race is reduced now that he has a cushion. He can manage each situation as it comes and when Ken Roczen is making moves, he can counter accordingly. I look for him to win 3-4 of the remaining races, Roczen to steal a couple, and Musquin to get his first win—but Dungey will win this title long before we reach Nevada.
2. Ken Roczen: Kenny was on fire last weekend. He simply rode away from the pack once he reached the lead. It was the most impressive ride I have seen from him this season. His bad races have simply been too tough on the points tally to be a threat to Dungey so far. He will need a big mistake or mechanical DNF to get back into serious contention. Thirty-four points isn’t impossible but when facing an experienced champion like Dungey, it certainly may feel like it. His only recourse is to win, win, win. If he does that, he could start cutting this lead down and put some pressure on Dungey, possibly forcing the mistake he needs.
3. Jason Anderson: El Hombre started the season with a statement win in Anaheim. He was rock solid for weeks, never finishing out of the top five until recently. He has been hit and miss lately, though, with a few crashes and mishaps that were out of his control. He still has the speed to be on the podium but his starts are really holding him back. That’s strange because he won a brand new Toyota last October at the Monster Energy Cup because his starts were so superb. If he can find a way to nail a start, look for him to be spraying champagne again soon. As for title aspirations: he needs help and lots of it. Dungey has a two-race lead over him so he’ll need Dungey to really drop the ball. Roczen is only twenty-four points up but if he rides like he did in Toronto, that could grow quickly. Basically, his only chance is to win most of the races and hope Dungey has horrific luck.
4. Eli Tomac: Eil was the big fish last off-season and Monster Kawi landed him. Coming off of double shoulder surgery, I was a bit worried that it would take some time to find his stride. Others were less skeptical and thought he would be winning right away. It seems neither of us were right because I thought he would be on the podium every week by now. We saw the brilliance he is capable of at Daytona but he struggled again last weekend in Toronto. He has been bouncing around between air and spring forks and seems to be searching for the right combination overall. I don’t think supercross has been what he or his team hoped for and their focus will soon be shifting to outdoors with the way things are going. He still should land a few more podiums this season but I would have to think May 21 can’t get here soon enough.
5. Cole Seely: Cole was the breakout 450 rider last season and won Rookie of the Year in the 450 class for his efforts. He has had his moments this season as well and is capable of winning at any given race. His third overall in the points standings last year was a tall order to duplicate but he is only twelve points away from Anderson in third. I look for him to holeshot one of these and win but with Dungey’s starts so consistent, it won’t be easy. In any case, he is a rock solid member of the 450 elite now and I look for Honda to sign him to a long-term deal sooner rather than later.