450SX

Chad Reed | 1st

1st) 1 percent

2nd) 1 percent

3rd) 1 percent

Only 83 users had Reed finishing on the podium

Ryan Dungey | 2nd

1st) 22 percent

2nd) 38 percent

3rd) 27 percent

Eighty-seven percent of all 450 players had Dungey on the podium.

Trey Canard | 3rd

1st) 34 percent

2nd) 20 perent

3rd) 23 percent

Seventy-seven percent of all 450 players had Canard on the podiu

 

250SX

Jeremy Martin | 1st

1st) 1.5 percent

2nd) 15 percent

3rd) 32 percent

Forty-eight and a half percent of all 250 players had Martin on the podium.

Marvin Musquin | 2nd

1st) 88 percent

2nd) 8 percent

3rd) 4 percent

One hundred percent of all 250 players had Musquin on the podium.

Justin Bogle | 3rd

1st) 9 percent

2nd) 46 percent

3rd) 23 percent

Seventy-eight percent of all 250 players had Bogle on the podium

 

Qualifying vs. Results

As we've said, it’s vital to study qualifying to make good picks, but one must use caution. We could list the many reasons as to why, or just show you some examples of the best and worst, and what was right on from qualifying to main event results.

Best

450SX

Phil Nicoletti | Qualified: 21st | Finish: 11th | Difference: +10

Cade Clason | Qualified: 30th | Finish: 22nd | Difference: +8

Chad Reed | Qualified: 9th | Finish: 1st | Difference: +8

 

250SX

Kyle Peters | Qualified: 31st | Finish: 13th | Difference: +18

Brady Kiesel | Qualified: 33rd | Finish: 15th | Difference: +18

Dakota Alix | Qualified: 22nd | Finish: 14th | Difference: +8

Trend: Don’t pay attention to Phil Nicoletti’s qualifying times. The last three weeks he’s qualified 20-22-21. His finishes? 14-13-11.

Missed the Mark

450SX

Eli Tomac | Qualified: 2nd | Finish: 20th | Difference: -18

Ken Roczen | Qualified: 3rd | Finish: 18th | Difference: -15

Davi Millsaps | Qualified: 5th | Finish: 12th | Difference: -7

 

250SX

Arnaud Tonus | Qualified: 4th | Finish: 10th | Difference: -6

Colt Nichols | Qualified: 6th | Finish: DNQ

AJ Catanzaro | Qualified: 18th | Finish: DNQ

Trend: Millsaps has been fast in qualifying the past three weeks—4-8-5—but hasn’t put it together in the main—20-20-12.

On Point

450SX

Weston Peick | Qualified: 6th | Finish: 5th | Difference: +1

Josh Hill | Qualified: 15th | Finish: 14th | Difference: +1

Jason Anderson | Qualified: 8th | Finish: 7th | Difference: -1

Jake Weimer | Qualified: 14th | Finish: 15th | Difference: -1

 

250SX

Matt Lemoine | Qualified: 8th | Finish: 7th | Difference: +1

Gannon Audette | Qualified: 13th | Finish: 12th | Difference: +1

Justin Starling | Qualified: 17th | Finish: 18th | Difference: -1

Marvin Musquin | Qualified: 1st | Finish: 2nd | Difference: -1

Trend: Watch Jason Anderson in qualifying—he typically finishes around where he qualifies.

 

SCORING CHART

Need a refresher on how scoring works? Go here. Want to view the scoring chart? See below.

Place	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
1	50	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	0
2	22	48	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1
3	20	22	46	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2
4	18	20	22	44	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3
5	17	18	20	22	42	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4
6	16	17	18	20	22	41	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5
7	15	16	17	18	20	22	40	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6
8	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	39	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7
9	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	38	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8
10	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	37	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9
11	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	36	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10
12	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	35	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11
13	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	34	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12
14	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	33	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13
15	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	32	22	20	18	17	16	15	14
16	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	31	22	20	18	17	16	15
17	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	30	22	20	18	17	16
18	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	29	22	20	18	17
19	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	28	22	20	18
20	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	27	22	20
21	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	26	22
22	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	25

 

Top Picks/Sleepers

The 250SX East Region is two rounds in, and it’s still pretty much a crapshoot. Small trends are developing—Musquin a podium fix, Lemoine and Friese top ten shoe-ins—but where you’re going to make points up is 15-22.

Good luck, you’ll need it!

 

450SX

Jason Anderson | Rockstar Energy Husqvarna | Last week: 7th
Anderson has eight consecutive top-tens to begin his 450SX career. I like him in the 7-10 range. Why? It’s where he’s been since Phoenix.

Cole Seely | Honda HRC | Last week: 4th
Was his fourth last week the quietest fourth in history? Yes. Yes it was. Since Phoenix his stat line reads: 6-5-2-6-10-4. He needs to be around your top five.

Weston Peick | Autotrader.com/Toyota/JGR Yamaha | Last week: 5th
Take out his twenty-second in Arlington, and Peick is averaging a 5.3 finish in 2015. That’s L-E-G-I-T. Fifth to tenth is a safe pick.

Mike Alessi | Smartop/MotoConcetps | Last week: 13th
Picking Alessi has been tough the last four weeks. Going off his stat line—17-13-18-13—pick him around 15-20 to get max points.

250SX

Matt Lemoine | JAB Motorsports | Last week: 7th
Lemoine is as solid as they come. Back to back top tens to begin the year. The test now? Can he jump to the podium.

Anthony Rodriguez | Yamalube/Star Racing Yamaha | Last week: 8th
The second-year pro was mistake free last weekend. That’s a good sign. Top ten is a good pick.

Dakota Alix | FMF/KTM Orange Brigade | Last week: 14th
Back to back main events for the rookie. I like him to make it three in a row.

Jimmy Decotis | Riverside Harley Davidson/Trail Jesters/SOB MX | Last week: 16th
Jimmy D hasn’t been Jimmy D this year. I think he bounces back this weekend and sneaks in the top ten.

 

AGAINST THE GRAIN

Again: YOU ARE NOT GOING TO PICK UP POINTS PICKING KEN ROCZEN FIRST-THIRD. Just not going to happen. Don't go all crazy if you pick Roczen to finish second, and you nail it, and still lose ground. Even if you hit it on the nose, chances are half of the competition will as well. You pick up points further down the field. Let’s take a look and who may or may not have made up some ground last week.

450SX

- Only 4.7 percent of users and Zack Freeberg making the main; he finished nineteenth.

- The average position selected for Mike Alessi was sixteenth; he finished thirteenth.

- The average position selected for Ken Roczen was third; he finished eighteenth.

- Only 7.7 percent of users had Josh Grant finishing tenth or better. he finished tenth.

- The average position selected for Broc Tickle was tenth; he finished sixth.

- The average position selected for Weston Peick was ninth; he finished fifth.

- The average position selected for Eli Tomac was second; he finished twentieth.

250SX

- The average position selected for RJ Hampshire eleventh; he finished ninth.

- Only 5.4 percent of users had Dakota Alix fifteenth or better; he finished fourteenth.

- The average position selected for Anthony Rodriguez was twelfth; he finished eighth.

- The average position selected for Justin Starling was nineteenth; he finished eighteenth.

- Seventy-eight and a half percent of users had Jace Owen making the main; he finished nineteenth.

- Ninety point nine percent had Vince Friese finishing tenthth or better: he finished sixth.

- The average position selected for Jimmy Decotis was eleventh; he finished sixteenth.

- Thirty-four point two percent of users had Levi Kilbarger making main; he finished twenty-first.

- Only 2.8 percent of users had Gannon Audette finishing twelfth or better; he finished twelfth.

 

Bonus Picks

I took one on the chin last weekend. Fastest qualifier Eli Tomac? Nope. Heat winner Marvin Musquin? Nah. Holeshot to Roczen? Strike three. You suck. (Thanks for saving me from a goose egg, Marvin. I owe you some crepes. I also got Dungey for heat race. Maybe he can hook me up with some Wheaties. And Davalos for holeshot.) I’ll stick my neck out there again—proceed at your own risk.

Round	Fastest Qualifier	Heat Winners	Holeshot
A1	Eli Tomac; Cooper Webb	Andrew Short, Eli Tomac; Justin Hill, Tyler Bowers	Mike Alessi; Jessy Nelson
Phoenix	Eli Tomac; Cooper Webb	Cole Seely, Eli Tomac; Justin Hill, Jessy Nelson	Eli Tomac; Zach Osborne
A2	Justin Barcia; Zach Osborne	Ryan Dungey, Mike Alessi; Cooper Webb, Shane McElrath	Jimmy Albertson; Zach Osborne
Oakland	Trey Canard; Justin Hill	Ken Roczen, Justin Barcia; Cooper Webb, Jessy Nelson	Andrew Short; Zach Bell
A3	Ryan Dungey; Tyler Bowers	Eli Tomac, Ryan Dungey; Malcolm Stewart, Jessy Nelson	Blake Baggett; Matt Bisceglia
San Diego	Ken Roczen; Tyler Bowers	Eli Tomac, Cole Seely; Justin Hill, Shane McElrath	Ken Roczen; Zach Osborne
Dallas	Ken Roczen;Marvin Musquin	Ryan Dungey, Trey Canard; Marvin Musquin, Justin Bogle	Ryan Dungey; Marvin Musquin
ATL1	Trey Canard; Marvin Musquin	Ryan Dungey, Trey Canard; Joey Savatgy, Martin Davalos	Chad Reed; Martin Davalos

Last Week's Picks

450SX

Fastest Qualifier: Eli Tomac

Heat Winner: Ryan Dungey

Holeshot: Ken Roczen

250SX

Fastest Qualifier: Marvin Musquin

Heat Winner: Marvin Musquin

Holeshot: Martin Davalos

 

Picks for Atlanta 2

450SX

Fastest Qualifier: Ken Roczen

Heat Winner: Ryan Dungey

Holeshot: Ryan Dungey

250SX

Fastest Qualifier: Marvin Musquin

Heat Winner: Justin Bogle

Holeshot: Martin Davalos

 

ADVICE FROM THE SO-CALLED EXPERTS

Steve Matthes, who somehow continues to lead the Racer X League, talked a lot of smack before making his picks last week—and proceeded to lay a giant egg. Let’s review. Nick Schmidt to make main? Nah. Davi Millsaps 5-10? Close, but nope. Quote: “Put Kenny Roczen, Eli Tomac, Ryan Dungey, and Trey Canard in your top four for the 450SX main event. Whatever order you want to actually place them in is up to you, but these four guys are pulling away from the pack in terms of speed and wins. This should be your top four for the main.” About that… He did save himself with a good Baggett pick. Hopefully you didn’t listen to his “expert” advice.

Steve is upset about all of this, so help him out and listen to his fantasy podcast.

We’ve brought in Jordan Roberts to hopefully save this sinking ship.

Five Things I’m Betting on this Week (Jordan Roberts)

1. Eli Tomac and Ken Roczen aren’t going to screw us over this weekend. I almost went into fantasy breakdown as the two riders had their own on-track meltdowns during the main event, but then I looked to my left and right and realized I wasn’t the only sane person to have Eli and Kenny in my top five. They’ll stay there this week, too.

2. A heat race winner. That’s my MO, bro. Hey Marvin, thanks for last weekend!

3. Arnaud Tonus gets fifth in the main. Nobody doubts his speed, but how he’s getting tangled up in the opening laps is debatable. He doesn’t pull a holie, but his start is good enough to ride his own race after dicing with some top guys early on.

4. There is some questionable movement going on in Steve Matthes’ pants due to the over-under bridge. Can we get some side bets going on here?!

5. Chase Stallo does not pass me and move into third on the Racer X leaderboard. In fact, I heard Weege has been neglecting his children this week so he can go all Rain Man on every supercross statistic available in hopes of holding on to that precious second place. That newborn will have to learn how to say “Dada” next week.

 

Prizes/Winners

[Viewer discretion advised]

Winning is awesome. Congrats to these winners from last week. You’re all number one (two or three) in our book.

450SX

1) Mattmcphail: 449pts | Factory Effex OEM Tracker Jacket and Shirt

2) GarrettDeSheister: 443pts | Factory Effex OEM Pullover Hoodie and Hat

3) Slinky321: 436pts | Factory Effex OEM Shirt and Hat

250SX

1) Randy831: 462pts | Pro Circuit Brigate Backpack

2) Mxer821: 452pts | Pro Circuit Pit Chair

3) bshelkop: 450pts | Pro Circuit/Mechanix Apron

If you didn’t win, don’t freak out—there’s always this week. Check out what we have on tap.

450SX Atlas Prizes

1st place: Atlas Air Neck Brace

2nd place: Atlas Defender Chest Protector

3rd place: Atlas hat and t-shirt

250SX Scott Prizes

1st place: Scott Hustle MX Goggle and C-Note Sunglasses

2nd place: Scott Hustle MX Goggle

3rd place: Scott C-Note Sunglasses

 

Racer X League

This guy continues to lead our league. (Sigh.)