It’s down to details this late in the game. Case and point: only 10 percent had Dungey winning, but most everyone had him on the podium. But, picking him as the winner picked you up 50 points. That’s big as the rounds start to wind down. Let’s take a look at the numbers.

450SX

Ryan Dungey | 1st

1.) 10 percent

2.) 25 percent

3.) 32 percent

Ken Roczen| 2nd

1.) 49 percent

2.) 22 percent

3.) 15 percent

Roczen’s numbers are nearly identical to last week. And a staggering 49 percent had him for the win.

Trey Canard | 3rd

1.) 15 percent

2.) 24 percent

3.) 26 percent

 

250SX

Marvin Musquin | 1st

1.) 72 percent

2.) 13 percent

3.) 9 percent

WOW. WOW. WOW. 72 percent of users had Musquin finishing first. Furthermore, 94 percent had him on the podium.

Justin Bogle | 2nd

1.) 12 percent

2.) 29 percent

3.) 26 percent

Joey Savagty | 3rd

1.) 0.1 percent

2.) 2 percent

3.) 5 percent

 

Qualifying vs. Results

As we've said, it’s vital to study qualifying to make good picks, but one must use caution. We could list the many reasons as to why, or just show you some examples of the best and worst, and what was right on from qualifying to main event results.

Best

450SX

Phil Nicoletti | Qualified: 22nd | Finish: 12th | Difference: +9

Tony Archer | Qualified: 27th | Finish: 19th | Difference: +8

Josh Grant| Qualified: 15th | Finish: 8th | Difference: +7

250SX

Zack Williams | Qualified: 25th | Finish: 15th | Difference: +10

Dakota Alix | Qualified: 30th | Finish: 20th | Difference: +10

Justin Starling| Qualified: 21st | Finish: 14th | Difference: +7

For the second consecutive week, Phil Nicoletti has improved his finish from his qualifying time by six positions or more. Keep an eye on this moving forward.

Missed the Mark

450SX

Weston Peick| Qualified: 9th | Finish: 22nd | Difference: -13

Davi Millsaps | Qualified: 8th | Finish: 20th | Difference: -12 

Kyle Chisholm | Qualified: 19th | Finish: DNQ

Another tough week for those who had Millsaps up high (me included). He’s riding much, much better so don’t expect this to continue.

250SX

Mitchell Oldenburg| Qualified: 9th | Finish: 21st | Difference: -12

Nick Gaines | Qualified: 14th | Finish: DNQ

Jace Owen | Qualified: 19th | Finish: DNQ

On Point

450SX

Jason Anderson | Qualified: 6th | Finish: 6th | Difference: 0

Trey Canard | Qualified: 3rd | Finish: 3rd | Difference: 0

Chad Reed | Qualified: 10th | Finish: 11th | Difference: -1

Mike Alessi | Qualified: 17th | Finish: 18th | Difference: -1

Josh Hill | Qualified: 13th | Finish: 12th | Difference: +1

 

250SX

Marvin Musquin | Qualified: 1st | Finish: 1st | Difference: 0

Matt Lemoine | Qualified: 5th | Finish: 5th | Difference: 0

Kyle Peters | Qualified: 10th | Finish: 10th | Difference: 0

Gannon Audette | Qualified: 18th | Finish: 18th | Difference: 0

This is an anomaly. Never have we had more than two riders qualify and finish in the same position. The 250SX East opener gave us four. This may be something to watch for this weekend.

 

SCORING CHART

Need a refresher on how scoring works? Go here. Want to view the scoring chart? See below.

Place	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
1	50	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	0
2	22	48	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1
3	20	22	46	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2
4	18	20	22	44	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3
5	17	18	20	22	42	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4
6	16	17	18	20	22	41	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5
7	15	16	17	18	20	22	40	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6
8	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	39	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7
9	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	38	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8
10	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	37	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9
11	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	36	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10
12	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	35	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11
13	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	34	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13	12
14	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	33	22	20	18	17	16	15	14	13
15	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	32	22	20	18	17	16	15	14
16	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	31	22	20	18	17	16	15
17	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	30	22	20	18	17	16
18	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	29	22	20	18	17
19	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	28	22	20	18
20	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	27	22	20
21	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	26	22
22	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	25

 

Top Picks/Sleepers

Oh, man, the East Region opener took me to the wood shed. But, we did begin to maybe see some trends we can use going forward. We will cover a little of 450SX this week, but our goal is to nail down 250SX, unlike a week ago.

450SX

Broc Tickle | Soaring Eagle/Jimmy John’s/RCH Suzuki | Last week: 9th
Back-to-back top-tens for Tickle since his return from a back injury. Also consider he has four top-tens in six rounds. I like him here again.

Jason Anderson | Rockstart Energy Husqvarna | Last week: 6th
If you don’t have inside the top ten on a weekly basis, you may want to give this fantasy thing up. Anderson has started the season with seven consecutive top ten finishes.

Blake Baggett | Yoshimura Suzuki | Last week: 4th
Stop thinking this is an aberration. It’s not. Baggett has four straight top-tens and is continuing to climb.

250SX

Nick Gaines | Traders Racing Kawasaki | Last week: DNQ
The rookie showed a lot of spunk last weekend. And was thisclose to qualifying before crashing out with a huge lead in the LCQ. Another factor: He’s a Georgia native and is familiar with the dirt. Top fifteen isn’t a stretch.

Vince Friese | Smartop/MotoConcepts | Last week: 6th
Friese continues to do what Vince Friese does—get inside the top ten. Make the safe bet, and put him somewhere in your top ten.

Justin Starling | Privateer | Last week: 14th
He sure looked good a week ago. Definitely put him in your main event picks.

Mitchell Oldenburg | Arma Energy/MotoSport Yamaha | Last week: 21st
Don’t pay much attention to last week. He’s much better. Use his qualifying time—ninth—as more of a gauge than his finish.

RJ Hampshire | GEICO Honda | Last week: 7th
That he even raced last week was impressive. He’s nursing some injuries, so keep an eye on qualifying.

Luke Renzland | CycleTrader.com/Rock River Yamaha | Last week: 12th
Another rookie that was impressive in his debut. He crashed early and still came back to twelfth a week ago.

 

AGAINST THE GRAIN

If we can, let us be honest here for a second: YOU ARE NOT GOING TO PICK UP POINTS PICKING KEN ROCZEN FIRST-THIRD. Just not going to happen. Even if you hit it on the nose, chances are half of the competition will as well. You pick up points further down the field. Let’s take a look and who may or may not have made up some ground last week.

450SX

- The average position picked for Chad Reed was seventh; He finished eleventh

- Only fifteen users had Tony Archer making the main; He finished nineteenth

- The average position picked for Eli Tomac was second; He finished seventh

- Only twenty-six users had Josh Grant finishing tenth or better; He finished eighth

- Only fourteen users had Andrew Short finishing fifth or better; He finished fifth

- The average position picked for Davi Millsaps was eighth; He finished twentieth

- The average position picked for Weston Peick was eleventh; He finished twenty-second.

250SX

- The average position picked for Mitchell Oldenburg was eleventh; He finished twenty-first

- Only 171 users had Matt Lemoine finishing fifth or better; He finished fifth

- The average position picked for Arnuad Tonus was fifth; He finished eighth

- Only 92 users had Justin Starling finished fifteenth or better; He finished fourteenth

- The average position picked for Martin Davalos was fifth; He finished ninth

- Only 332 users had Kyle Peters finishing tenth or better; He finished tenth

- Only 514 users had Dakota Alix making the main; He finished twentieth

 

Bonus Picks

As trends begin to develop, bonus picks are where you can gain a lot of ground. The East Region definitely provides an opportunity to pick up ground, as Marvin Musquin seems to be a safe pick for just about everything. I nearly pulled the trifecta in both 450SX and 250SX last week. I barely lost out on fastest qualifier (Tomac) and heat winner (Tomac), and in 250SX, I went a perfect three for three. Let’s get in to this week’s picks.

Round	Fastest Qualifier	Heat Winners	Holeshot
A1	Eli Tomac; Cooper Webb	Andrew Short, Eli Tomac; Justin Hill, Tyler Bowers	Mike Alessi; Jessy Nelson
Phoenix	Eli Tomac; Cooper Webb	Cole Seely, Eli Tomac; Justin Hill, Jessy Nelson	Eli Tomac; Zach Osborne
A2	Justin Barcia; Zach Osborne	Ryan Dungey, Mike Alessi; Cooper Webb, Shane McElrath	Jimmy Albertson; Zach Osborne
Oakland	Trey Canard; Justin Hill	Ken Roczen, Justin Barcia; Cooper Webb, Jessy Nelson	Andrew Short; Zach Bell
A3	Ryan Dungey; Tyler Bowers	Eli Tomac, Ryan Dungey; Malcolm Stewart, Jessy Nelson	Blake Baggett; Matt Bisceglia
San Diego	Ken Roczen; Tyler Bowers	Eli Tomac, Cole Seely; Justin Hill, Shane McElrath	Ken Roczen; Zach Osborne
Dallas	Ken Roczen;Marvin Musquin	Ryan Dungey, Trey Canard; Marvin Musquin, Justin Bogle	Ryan Dungey; Marvin Musquin

Last Week's Picks

450SX

Fastest qualifier: Eli Tomac

Heat Winner: Eli Tomac

Holeshot: Mike Alessi

250SX

Fastest qualifier: Marvin Musquin

Heat Winner: Justin Bogle

Holeshot: Marvin Musquin

 

Picks for Atlanta 1

450SX

Fastest Qualifier: Eli Tomac

Heat Winner: Ryan Dungey

Holeshot: Ken Roczen

250SX

Fastest Qualifier: Marvin Musquin

Heat Winner: Marvin Musquin

Holeshot: Martin Davalos

 

ADVICE FROM THE SO-CALLED EXPERTS

Well, well. We’ve finally had an “expert” do pretty well in their picks. The Weege was pretty much on point last week. He called Blake Baggett for a top-five (golf clap), Josh Grant near the top ten (double golf clap), Joey Savatgy for a podium (real clap), and Vince Friese top five (close enough). He missed on AJ Catanzaro, Mitchell Oldenburg, and Weston Peick, but all in all a good week for The Weege. We found this video of him celebrating.

This week we’ve brought in Steve Matthes, the leader of Racer X Fantasy League (sigh).

Five Things I’m Betting on this Week (Steve Matthes)

Week in and week out, my name stays atop the Racer X Staff MotoDynasty league. At this point I’m the kitten and the rest of these guys are the barn of yarn. I’m simply amusing myself by hitting them over and over. I can’t be stopped and I think I’ve stretched my lead even bigger the last couple of weeks. Yeah, yeah I’m only top-five in the Pulpmx League but that one doesn’t matter like this one!

[Ed Note: We're about to take Matthes out!]

Listen to these N-Fab Racer X Fantasy Moto Podcasts that JT and I do and maybe you too can be a fantasy moto winner like me! Chase likes to eff us over and not post this link in this column each week (as he does with the classic podcast in his weekly ‘Word On’ column), but since we’re writing this week, he cannot keep us down. HERE’S the pod link.

1) The idea is to get all twenty-two riders in the mains correctly to win this league. Picking the wrong guy to make a main is worse than picking a rider for twenty-second and he wins. So the privateers at the back of the mains are very, very, very important. Put Nick Schmidt in your 450SX main event for this weekend; he’s been riding much better in the last few weeks. And yeah I know Josh Hill has effed you over—he’s done it to all of us—but put him in and pencil him around tenth.

2) Although his finishes the last few weeks have been poo-poo, Davi Millsaps has been riding much better the last couple of weeks as he recovers from an illness. Millsaps rode press day in Atlanta, he’s won there before, and it’s close to where he grew up, so put him in for a fifth through tenth this week. Do it.

3.) Put Kenny Roczen, Eli Tomac, Ryan Dungey, and Trey Canard in your top four for the 450SX main event. Whatever order you want to actually place them in is up to you, but these four guys are pulling away from the pack in terms of speed and wins. This should be your top four for the main.

4.) Don’t get silly and get caught up in hype. Slot the riders into where they have been finishing all season long. For example, Blake Baggett rode terrific last week to get a fourth, but he’s been seventh through eleventh at the other six races this year. Don’t be that guy and put him in the top three—stick with the law of averages. I’ll put Blake seventh this week.

5.) I tell people every week to stay away from the extra juicy fruits of picking the top qualifier, heat race winners, and holeshot guys in MotoDynasty, but I’ve correctly picked a heat race winner three weeks in a row. So sue me. Here’s the deal though: I only do it after checking the heat race line-ups. Last week Marvin Musquin didn’t have anyone who I thought could touch him in the heat, so bingo, bango 15 points for me. The previous two weeks I took Tomac because the other “big three” dudes were in the other heat race. Thank you Eli Tomac for those two heat race wins! Remember, if you get the pick wrong you lose 15 points, so you have to be careful here. Check those heat race lineups, bro.

 

PRIZES/WINNERS

Winning is awesome. Congrats to these winners from last week. You’re all number one (two or three) in our book.

450SX

1.) jwglaze: 478pts |Pro Circuit Brigate Backpack

2.) Evangelista162: 475pts |Pro Circuit Pit Chair

3.) Sully: 474pts |Pro Circuit/Mechanix Apron

250SX

1.) TheMiler: 481pts |Factory Effex OEM Tracker Jacket and Shirt

2.) GOFAST - 480pts |Factory Effex OEM Pullover Hoodie and Hat

3.) Bgross65 - 479pts |Factory Effex OEM Shirt and Hat

If you didn’t win, don’t freak out—there’s always this week. Check out what we have on tap.

Factory Effex 450 Prizes

1st place: Factory Effex OEM Tracker Jacket and Shirt

2nd place: Factory Effex OEM Pullover Hoodie and Hat

3rd place: Factory Effex OEM Shirt and Hat

Pro Circuit 250 Prizes

1st place: Pro Circuit Brigate Backpack

2nd place: Pro Circuit Pit Chair

3rd place: Pro Circuit/Mechanix Apron

 

Racer X League

This is what it's like to have Steve Matthes leading your fantasy league...

And this is what my decent from first looks like…