At the first round, the track was not an easy one to navigate. Soft and sticky in the morning, ruts formed and then hardened, becoming even more difficult to traverse in the afternoon. You can look for a similar scenario now but I do think the dirt will harden sooner and be fairly dusty by the second motos. More importantly, I’m very curious to see the differences in how the riders perform on the same track a few months later. The trends have changed pretty significantly since then, some riders improving and some backsliding. The picture is always clearer on the exact same track, though.

Who’s Hot

Jett Lawrence dominated Ironman (with a little help from J-Mart). He seemed to be on a different level the entire day.

Jo Shimoda put in his best effort of the season. Something about Ironman clicks for him.

Michael Mosiman bounced back nicely after missing a few rounds due to a shoulder injury. He rides these next two rounds very well so look for podium potential.

Eli Tomac finally got a win this summer. It seemed inevitable but his up and down inconsistency was making the job difficult.

Dylan Ferrandis continues to apply heavy pressure to the field. His speed, fitness, and consistency have been a strong offense to deal with. He could very well wrap up this title on Saturday.

Cooper Webb took a long awaited step forward. He mentioned making an adjustment to the frame (legal according the rulebook so calm down) which added comfort. Let’s see if he can keep that rolling into California.

Fantasy Talk

Southern California rounds always present unique opportunities in fantasy. Often, the venues chosen for the series serve as local practice tracks during the week. That creates an abnormally high level of competence and confidence for local riders. We have seen riders from southern California overperform at these rounds (Pala, Glen Helen, Lake Elsinore, etc). Speaking from experience, it was always very difficult to beat those riders who spend one day a week on a track for years, if not decades. Their comfort level and insider knowledge gives them a nice boost.

The local riders coupled with the data we gained from round 1 is where I will be looking for value this weekend. Keep in mind, a rider doesn’t have to be “from” southern California to have this local knowledge. Many riders have relocated to SoCal over the years and use Pala as their local track. I like to rely on prior results as my guide, a la, round 1 this season and the finale last season.

Riders I will be watching in the 250 class include: Michael Mosiman, Max Vohland, Colt Nichols, Derek Kelley, Dilan Schwartz, and Levi Kitchen.

For the 450 Class, the same approach can be applied but there is another variable at play. Injuries and sickness have ravaged this class, opening the doors for privateers far and wide. That also brings many more riders into play, some you may not immediately think about. Riders like Jacob Runkles, Ryan Surratt, Jeremy Hand, Justin Rodbell, Grant Harlan, Ben LaMay, Tyler Stepek, Jace Kessler, and Kevin Moranz may not be household names but if you want a big fantasy points haul, you likely need to familiarize yourself. The risk is higher with lesser known names but the payoff is also higher. With a wildly depleted field, this is the time to get aggressive with your line-up.