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The List: Title Scenarios

The List Title Scenarios

May 3, 2017 1:35pm
by:

One of the most dramatic seasons in the history of Monster Energy Supercross will close this Saturday at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. But before we tie a bow around the season, there are still a few things to work out—specifically in 450SX and the 250SX East Region.

First, the 450 class, which was turned upside down last weekend after Eli Tomac lost the front-end while leading, giving the spot away to Ryan Dungey, who got passed by teammate Marvin Musquin, who then let Dungey by on the final lap, which in turn gives Dungey a nine-point lead heading into the weekend. Whew.

Let’s see how the title breaks down:

450SX

Dungey Wins If…
If he finishes fourth or better, he wins the championship—no matter what Eli Tomac does.

Tomac Wins If…
If he wins, and Dungey finishes fifth or worse, Tomac wins the championship. There’s a nine-point gap between first and fifth. If Tomac wins and Dungey takes fifth, they tied in points and Tomac wins the first tiebreaker (most wins).

Even if Tomac wins, he'll need some help from Dungey who hasn't finished worse than fourth since East Rutherford in 2014.
Even if Tomac wins, he'll need some help from Dungey who hasn't finished worse than fourth since East Rutherford in 2014. Jeff Kardas

Other Scenarios

Tomac finishes second…
Dungey would need to finish seventh or better to clinch the title.

Tomac finishes third…
Dungey would need to ninth or better to clinch the title.

Tomac finishes fourth…
Dungey would need to finish 11th or better to clinch the title.

Tomac finishes fifth…
Dungey would need to finish 13th or better to clinch the title.

Tomac finishes sixth…
Dungey would need to finish 14th or better to clinch the title.

And so on…

Tiebreaker

This belongs to Eli Tomac. The tiebreaker is determined by most wins on the season, and since Tomac currently has nine and Dungey has three, there is no way for Dungey to catch Tomac.

By the way, and we’ll repeat this stat a lot this week, the last time Dungey finished fifth or worse in a supercross was Round 15 of 2014.

250SX East Region

The Dave Coombs East/West Showdown will serve as the final round of the season for both the 250SX East and West Regions. Heat races will be divided by East and West, then the LCQ will combine each coast for the final four spots in the main event. In the main event, all of the riders will race together and score points together. In other words, the winner of the Showdown gets 25 points just like always. Second gets 22 points just like always. It doesn’t matter which coast you’re riding from, every rider is scored the same.

This is fairly straightforward: Between Jordon Smith, Zach Osborne and Joey Savatgy, whoever finishes higher inside the top five between on Saturday night is the champion. Smith has a one-point lead over Osborne and Savatgy, who are tied. We’re truly in a winner-take-all format.

It's winner-take-all for the 250SX East Region.
It's winner-take-all for the 250SX East Region. Rich Shepherd

EXCEPT…

Once we get outside of the top five, where positions are separated by one point instead of two, things start to change a little bit.

Since Smith holds the tiebreaker over Savatgy all he has to do is finish within one point of Savatgy and have Osborne finish behind him. This would tie Smith and Savatgy in the points and Smith’s two wins give him the tiebreaker over Savatgy’s one win.

Smith doesn’t hold the tiebreaker over Osborne, so this scenario doesn’t apply there. For example, if Osborne finishes fifth and Smith finishes sixth, they tie in points and Osborne wins the title providing Savatgy doesn’t finish further ahead.

If they somehow manage to finish 20-22, then Smith would win the championship even if he finishes behind Savatgy and Osborne, as 20-22 is awarded one point per position.

One More

Although he’s 14 points down, Adam Cianciarulo is still mathematically alive for the title—but he will need some help from three riders. If AC wins, he’ll need Smith to finish 11th or worse, Osborne 10th or worse (due to tiebreaker) and Savatgy ninth or worse (due to tiebreaker).

It's still technically possible for AC to win this championship.
It's still technically possible for AC to win this championship. Rich Shepherd

Tiebreaker

Osborne holds the tiebreaker over…
Savatgy, Smith, and AC. After his win last weekend, Osborne has four on the season to Smith’s two and Savatgy’s and Cianciarulo’s one, so, neither of the three can catch him.

Smith holds the tiebreaker over…
Savatgy and Cianciarulo. Smith would hold the tiebreaker over Cianciarulo, no matter if Cianciarulo wins this weekend to match him with two wins on the season. The AMA rulebook determines ties by number of wins first, then ”finishes of second, third, etc., will be tallied until the tie is broken.” They each have one second place finish, but Smith has two third place finishes to Cianciarulo’s one.

Savatgy holds the tiebreaker over….
Cianciarulo. For now. They each have one win, and Savatgy has four second place finishes. But, if AC wins on Saturday, he’ll hold the tiebreaker with two wins.