The track this week should produce similar to conditions to last week. It will be a bit drier with the covering of the track but I still expect a softer surface that will continually change as the night goes on. The Northeast winters bring lots of moisture and the expected rains on Friday should lead to ruts and softer dirt on Saturday.

The start is one of my least favorite in supercross. The short straight ending in a 90 degree turn never seems to work out very well and riders tend to end up on the outside of the track as everyone bunches up and pushes too wide. Just after the start things should get interesting as there is a rhythm section that presents multiple options. There is even a slight curve halfway down the section which adds even more of a twist. We have seen incidents in this scenario in recent years so hopefully everyone can avoid that Saturday.

The following two straightaways are more of the same: a rhythm section with a 180-degree turn and more rhythm. There should be several ways through these sections so watch for riders to switch it up as the sections become rutty and treacherous. Following those rhythms is a long sweeping turn into an over/under tabletop jump and then the only whoop section on the track. Last year’s whoop section was very tough as riders had to use a combination of blitzing and jumping as the track changed. I expect much of the same here as the dirt will most likely break down. The rest of the track is fairly straightforward. There is a fast section that will cross the mechanics’ area and may be a good spot for a rider like Eli Tomac to utilize his outdoor skills.

If the track ends up like last week, soft and ever-changing, I look for the results to be similar as well. Ken Roczen and Eli Tomac were simply a step above in those conditions. Ryan Dungey never looked comfortable pushing the pace on the Foxborough course and unless they find a better setting for this weekend, he may be satisfied with simply clinching the title on Saturday night. Outdoor tracks with excess moisture, like this weekend may provide, have proven to be the only questionable aspect left in Dungey’s game—and even then any dropoff he does has is only slight. While it’s too little too late for the rest of the field, they will certainly be going for a win if it’s up for grabs.

Who’s Hot:

Ken Roczen was at his best last weekend. He was dominant all afternoon, running away with both the heat and main event wins. He looks to be in a very good place as we peek toward the impending summer.

Eli Tomac finally got back into the podium mix and was actually catching Roczen at one point. He made a couple of big mistakes that took the wind out of his sails but for a few exciting laps, it looked like Eli was bound for the lead. He also won this race a year ago, so the conditions seem to suit him.

Justin Bogle has quietly been upping his game lately. He is coming off of 4-6 finishes and he earned both of them. He is one of the many riders fighting for a factory ride next season so his timing couldn’t be better.

Martin Davalos has had some rough times this season, but he was extraordinary in that main event last weekend. He fought off a hard-charging Jeremy Martin when everyone was expecting him to fold. He has many detractors around the sport, all criticizing his tenure in the 250 class, but he makes it difficult for them when he rides like that.

Who’s Not:

Blake Baggett had a tough night in Foxborough. He started poorly in his qualifiers and then added crashes to the equation. Not qualifying for the main event had to be a brutal blow for both he and his Yoshimura Suzuki team in a season full of them.

Justin Barcia is a rider that I would expect to improve on a track like Foxborough. It wasn’t meant to be, though, as he never found his pace and struggled with crashes to make things worse. It’s perplexing that he isn’t doing better. I am sure it’s more frustrating for him than anyone.

Marvin Musquin was a ball of fire in the middle of the season. His wrist injury has seemed to cool that flame and his results have suffered. He was great on the 250 at MetLife last year so I look for him to bounce back if he is at 100 percent.

Bold Predictions:

Ken Roczen makes it two in a row but Ryan Dungey laughs loudest with his second consecutive supercross title.

Jeremy Martin wins the 250 main event and takes the points deficit to under 10 with one round to go.

Eli Manning looks confused about all of that dirt on his field.