One of the biggest storylines for Saturday will be the start. Many of the corners of Loretta’s layout funnel back to the insides. That makes passing more difficult at times. A bad start can be easily negated on a very wide layout with elevation and a dozen lines in every corner. On a tighter track, riders will be forced to get aggressive and creative. For example, we have often seen Eli Tomac come through the pack with reckless abandon, overcoming a poor start en route to victory. On a track like this, that task could be much tougher. Instead of blowing through the field in early lapped traffic, he could be forced to follow a bit more, losing big time to the lead pack. Nothing is a certainty but a bad start for anyone will likely be penalized more than some other races.

The final factor to consider will be the heat and humidity. In a typical year, riders would be fully acclimated to racing in the heat by now. They would have a slow ramp up through May and June before the true torture chambers that summer can bring. This year, however, they will be thrown into the deep end of the pool on day one. Loretta Lynn’s is widely regarded as the most brutal of the amateur championships. The western Tennessee humidity can be downright smothering. For those that may not quite have their race legs yet, it could be a very hard opening round. We will get a very clear picture of who is prepared and who isn’t. The cool temps of Hangtown has at times hidden the truth but the harsh conditions of Loretta Lynn’s will tell no lies.

Fantasy Talk

The opening round of the Lucas Oil AMA Pro Motocross Championship is always an opportunity. No one really knows what the summer trends will be just yet. Which privateers will surprise? Who relaxed maybe a touch too much in July? As the rounds roll on, we learn what to expect but this first round is a true guessing game. Further, we are holding the opening round at a track that has never held a professional race. We don’t have any historical data to draw from for many of these riders on this track. I love when the picks require thought and strategy. By the end of the series, prior results can be leaned on heavily for direction. Not this weekend, though! (If you want to pick Eli Tomac, Cooper Webb, and Marvin Musquin, then yes, you have results to draw from, but I am talking about more “under the radar” type picks).

For this first round, I will be looking at the rookies in the 250 class and trying to decipher who is ready and who might wilt under the pressure. Riders like Stilez Robertson and Dilan Schwartz are making the move after solid amateur championship performances. Do they have the fitness for 30 plus two, though? That extra 15 minutes feels like an eternity compared to the amateur motos they just tackled last week. Other youngsters like Pierce Brown, Jett Lawrence, Jo Shimoda, and Jalek Swoll will get their second crack at this series and surely looking to take the next step. Also, Monster Energy/Pro Circuit Kawasaki will put forth Darien Sanayei and a returning Mitchell Harrison to the racetrack as well. The future of the 250 class is bright, but the question remains, who will be the breakout star amongst these?

In the 450s, we know what to expect at the front. Eli Tomac is hoping for a fourth straight title so seeing him battling for the win won’t be a shock. I am curious to see who can make the final leap into championship contention, though. Cooper Webb seems the likely choice but riders like Musquin, Zach Osborne, Justin Barcia, Blake Baggett, Adam Cianciarulo, Chase Sexton, and Jason Anderson all think they can pose a realistic threat. With Ken Roczen choosing to forego this summer’s racing, someone will seize the opportunity.

For fantasy purposes, though, those riders above almost don’t matter. The real points are earned by the likes of Benny Bloss, John Short, Henry Miller, Freddie Noren, Tyler Bowers, etc. The privateers that find a way to put themselves into the top ten are really who we are looking for.

Others to keep an eye on will be those returning from injury like Joey Savatgy and Justin Bogle. They have huge upside but again, we really have no idea what to expect. Can they immediately find the pace after extended layoffs? There are huge points in the balance between a great return or a “easing back into it” approach.