It will be hard to judge because Prado’s season will restart the work-in-progress that is supercross. He is still stuck with just 6 career AMA SX starts, and there’s no real way to create a real expectation. Just as an example, if Prado gets seventh every week indoors, is that good or bad? What does it prove? It’s really impossible to know until the AMA Pro Motocross Championship begins.

For Sexton, the aim is more true: he must win quickly. That’s because he’s already done that in supercross on the other brands, taking a 450SX title with Honda and nearly getting one with KTM, happy or not unhappy with those bikes. He also won a Pro Motocross title on a KTM. He certainly wasn’t unsuccessful with either brand, but sports’ judgement is tough at the highest level. Usually, the judgement is title or bust, and that involves an even greater set of variables. When winning is the only goal, it’s tough to measure things. For example, Kawasaki could suit Sexton’s style better than anything else, and yet, he could still not win titles only because he’ll face game competitors with names like Cooper Webb, Jett Lawrence, Eli Tomac, and more are also amazing. It’s hard to make fair judgements at the highest level.

Related: How Many Wins, Podiums Did Chase Sexton Earn with KTM? What About Honda?

But we want to. We want to so badly. Why? Because deep down, while the question is always “Is it the rider or the bike?” we already know the answer we want. We want it to be about the rider. We love riding and owning dirt bikes, tinkering on them and learning about them. But when you’re watching a race, it’s usually viewed as a pure athletic competition. May the best man win. The bike questions just cloud the whole thing. It’s the same thing when analyzing the play of a quarterback, and deciding if he’s good or not, while trying to ignore the obvious variables like….how good are the teammates on the field he’s throwing to? The teammates that are protecting him? The coaches who are coaching him?

The bike/rider mashup is no different. It gets in the way of the pure best-man-wins answer we all want. So that’s why it’s important. Prado and Sexton switching teams gives that slight chance that we could learn more and get closer to the answer we want.

Tomac’s role is different. He never suffered a public flame out with Yamaha or even his old employer at Kawasaki, but his own move to KTM could certainly answer questions of competence. Let’s make it simple: If Eli is good on a KTM, well it certainly helps prove the KTM is good, no matter what Sexton said.

Right now, it’s tempting to say no off-season had packed more big moves than this one. That’s probably not even true. Plenty of big-name riders have switched in plenty of other seasons before, and often at the same time. But the strange endings for Sexton and Prado, and their switches to the exact teams the other rejected, definitely is unique. We all want to know how they will do in 2026, obviously. But with this switch, we get to learn more about 2025, as well.