After being the first 450 rider in Monster Energy AMA Supercross to get two wins this season, and holding the red plate for a bit, Chase Sexton has hit a mid-season slump. It all started in Tampa when he went down in the whoops while leading the main event. He scored fifth that night. The next weekend in Detroit he hit the gate and then crashed two corners later and was dead last. He scored third that night.
In Arlington, he had the Triple Crown overall win in the bag, all he had to do was ride it in for second in the final race to get the overall. But he went down while trying to catch race leader Cooper Webb and ended up third overall instead of winning. In Daytona, he crashed hard in the heat race (forcing him to the LCQ) which hindered him in the main, ending up fifth.
In Indianapolis, Chase won his heat race over fastest qualifier Ken Roczen by almost nine seconds. In the main, Sexton started fourth and then took a while to get around Justin Barcia. By then Cooper Webb had opened up a big lead, which Chase commented on in the post-race press conference.
“I mean, after the red cross flag, where I had to roll the section, it was over by that point, Coop had nine seconds on me," Sexton said. "So, at that point I was like, 'Yeah, I'll just ride, trying to ride my laps and bring it home in second.' Obviously made a mistake in the sand, but it was pretty easy to do once I got off that rhythm where I was doubling through kind of like a sand track outdoor race. I seemed to get deeper into the sand, and I was going too slow and fell over. So, after that I picked myself up and just try to claw back and at least get on the podium because Justin, like I said, was behind me and AP and there was a little bit of a train coming behind, so I'm just trying to fight and ended up there.”
So, in Arlington we have Chase unhappy with second in the final Triple Crown moto, he pushed for the win (even though he didn’t need it) and goes down. Now in Indianapolis he tried a different technique, of just riding it in for second, and he goes down again. Not surprisingly, as on a track as gnarly as Indy, riders cannot afford to lose a moments focus. Which tends to happens when riders are “just riding” and not attacking the track. With an off weekend coming up, Sexton might need this break more than anyone else.
“I just see a bit of a reset," Sexton said on this weekend. "These last, I don't know, four or five races have been hard for me. Obviously, it's kind of hard to hide that. But, yeah, just a little reset and typically when I come back from that little break, we always have in the supercross season, I seem to be better so hopefully can do that again and just put some good races together. Once I get that momentum back on my side, I think we should be good, but, like I said, Coop's riding really well and in that main event he was solid right from the get-go. So, gonna have to do better and just get a little reset.”
After Sexton brought up finishing better in the second half of the season, we decided to do a little math and see for ourselves.
Chase Sexton's beginning of seasons vs second half of seasons
| 2022 SX | 2022 MX | 2023 SX | 2024 SX | 2024 MX | |
| Finishes | 5-9-1-3-3-7- 16-4-3-22-4-2-3-2-4-2 | 1-2-3-2-2-2-2- 1-1-4-1 | 3-5-1-2-2-3-2-3-10-1-5-2-1-4-1-1-1 | 3-1-8-5-2-9-6-3-4-3-2-5-2- 22-2-8-1 | 3-1-5-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1 |
| Average beginning of season finish | 6 | 2 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 |
| Average end of season finish | 5.25 | 1.8 | 2 | 5.6 | 1 |
We looked back at the last few years of Chase’s 450cc career once he started winning races, and he is right. In every season except for 2024 supercross, he always performs better in the second half. Now if we eliminate Nashville 2024, where his throttle stuck resulting in a gnarly crash and a freak 22nd place finish, without that finish his average finish for the second half of supercross that year would be 3.28. Which would also be better than the beginning of the year. Please note that we did not include 2023 Pro Motocross because he sat out three races after a concussion. But we did still include 2022 supercross when he missed Seattle after a big crash in qualifying.
So, what does this all mean? It means it will be tough, especially since Cooper Webb also finishes strong at the end of a season, but technically Chase could go on a tear like he did last summer in Pro Motocross and win the rest of the races in the second half. He has the speed, no one is going to argue that. He just needs to find that sweet spot of not trying too hard and not playing it too safe either.
