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Insight: Back in the Danger Zone

Insight: Back in the Danger Zone

September 4, 2024, 8:50pm
Jason Weigandt Jason WeigandtEditorial Director
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  • Who Will Win the 250SMX Class at the Round 1 of Playoffs?

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Concord, NC SMX Playoff 1SuperMotocross World Championship
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Haiden Deegan is the SuperMotocross World Champion from last year and has the momentum this year. He won the 250 Class AMA Pro Motocross Championship by a large margin and stamped it with a resounding win in the final moto of the season at Ironman Raceway. Are there holes in his game? Are there any weaknesses?  What about the strengths of the other contenders?

Levi Kitchen

Ranked second in SMX seeding coming in (based on the total points scored in supercross and motocross) Kitchen has a high ceiling that could serve him well in a three-round playoff. His starts have been excellent this season indoors and out and starts might be more important in SMX than anywhere else. Kitchen has proven when he gets out front he can win, to the tune of three overall wins late in Pro Motocross. One thing to watch, though, is track conditions. Kitchen really excels in ruts, and he was dominant in supercross on soft tracks like Seattle and St. Louis. He wasn’t quite as effective on harder tracks like Glendale and Salt Lake City.

Tom Vialle

It’s odd that Vialle won the 250 East Region Supercross Championship and outscored Kitchen in Pro Motocross but is actually ranked lower in playoff seeding. How? The West ran one more SX race than the East, but the West riders had to throw out their lowest score to try to match up. The real reason is that the big Detroit first-turn crash cost most East front runners nearly an entire race worth of points. In SMX, Kitchen scored 195 points (after he dropped his worst score) to Vialle’s 172. That was enough to give him the SMX edge even though he was seven points behind Vialle in Pro Motocross, due to crashing out of the final moto of the season.

Tom Vialle
Tom Vialle Align Media

Okay that was probably too much information and confusing. Just know Vialle starts five points behind Deegan, and for what it’s worth, Jo Shimoda started last year’s SMX playoff five points behind Deegan and lost the SMX title by, you guess it, five points.

As for Vialle, do not sleep on this dude on these types of tracks. Not all of MXGP is Lommel in the sand, or “European style” tracks like Unadilla. Some of the flyaway GPs outside of Europe use man-made tracks with dirt piled on top of concrete to mimic motocross conditions. Vialle has experience in these types of races, plus SMX tracks won’t have whoops, which are still a work in progress for Vialle. Remember Vialle was really good at zMAX Dragway last year. If he could find his old MXGP MX2 start prowess, he could become the man to beat. 

Jo Shimoda

Jo was very good in SMX last year. In fact, he might have ridden the best, but he had a bike problem at round two in Chicago after winning round one and couldn’t overcome his five-point deficit in seeding points to Deegan.

The problem for Jo is that he broke his collarbone at Unadilla just as he was rounding into his best form. He should be back for the weekend, but this is a fast turnaround.

Jo Shimoda
Jo Shimoda Align Media

Chance Hymas

Does Chance have a chance? Supercross results would say no, motocross results would say yes. The real factor is that Hymas changed his diet after a rough supercross season and was much better outdoors and will likely remain a front runner from now on. He doesn’t have a supercross win in his career yet, but an SMX victory could come at any moment.

RJ Hampshire

The rivalry we haven’t seen yet is Hampshire vs Deegan, but we’re here for it. These two take no prisoners out on the track. Hampshire boasts this year’s 250SX West Region Championship and had a nice comeback (after a wrist injury) to Pro Motocross with a podium at the final round. But he struggled in SMX last year by his usual standards, going 14-4-3. He was way off on bike setup at Charlotte and chased it the rest of the way. If Hampshire is dialed in this time, look out.

The biggest problem for Hampshire is that he’s only the 13th seed into the playoffs, so he’s already 16 points behind Deegan and the top seed.

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How to Watch: SMX Playoff 1 and MXGP of Türkiye Fri Sep 6 How to Watch: SMX Playoff 1 and MXGP of Türkiye Monster Energy SMX Playoffs Preview Show: They're Back! Thu Sep 5 Monster Energy SMX Playoffs Preview Show: They're Back! 450 Words: Instant Traction Thu Sep 5 450 Words: Instant Traction SuperMotocross League and Progressive Insurance Enter Exclusive Sponsorship Thu Sep 5 SuperMotocross League and Progressive Insurance Enter Exclusive Sponsorship Between the Motos: “It’s War, Dude.” Thu Sep 5 Between the Motos: “It’s War, Dude.” Injury Report: Who's Back? Thu Sep 5 Injury Report: Who's Back?

Jordon Smith

Smitty was in the thick of the 250SX West Region title battle this year, and this was arguably his best year ever outdoors. He also won the first moto of the Los Angeles SMX finale last year and, with triple points awarded, and nearly pulled off the title! Smitty could easily be a factor again this year.

Max Anstie

Anstie led the 250SX East standings for a while this year before bike troubles and bad starts finally caught up with him. Then he turned it around and scored a race win! Since then, he’s switched teams to Monster Energy Yamaha Star Racing and showed he could be a podium guy in Pro Motocross once adapted to the new bike. Can he do that again in SMX?

Max Anstie
Max Anstie Align Media

Nate Thrasher

Nate won a supercross earlier this year and showed some potential outdoors, too, until injuries kicked in. We always joke that Thrasher has one of the weirdest Racer X Vault entries of any rider. At any time, and often out of nowhere, he can win races. That makes him well suited to come back from injury but then contend in a three-race playoff.

Pierce Brown/Jalek Swoll: Longtime rivals as amateurs, these two now still fight over similar spots as pros. They’re solid, but thisclose to a breakthrough run of podiums and race wins. Both are capable but starts will play a huge factor.

Ryder DiFrancesco

Deegan’s explosive start to his pro career has overshadowed Ryder D’s slower build, but he’s improving. He also gets starts. That makes him a contender for some good finishes in SMX. Note he got a moto podium at zMAX Dragway in the second moto of last year's first SMX Race!

Ty Masterpool

Ty really wanted to use SMX last year to show he could race on man-made tracks. He did well on his privateer HBI Kawasaki KX450 despite battling appendix issues. Yes. Now he’s on the Monster Energy/Pro Circuit Kawasaki. While Ty’s supercross results aren’t even close to where he finishes in motocross, this presents another chance to show he’s not just an outdoor guy.

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The List: SMX Qualifying Positions and Entry List Wed Sep 4 The List: SMX Qualifying Positions and Entry List The List: Relive Inaugural SMX Playoff Event in 2023 Wed Sep 4 The List: Relive Inaugural SMX Playoff Event in 2023
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