All this build up for Daytona. Seriously, it have been a long time since I was that hyped for a mid-season race. There was an Anaheim 1 level electricity heading to Daytona, because Eli Tomac was hitting his stride just in time for his best race, and throwing some trash talk (by his standards) at those saying he was the old guy. Cooper Webb was coming off a win in Arlington, closing in the standings, and heading to a track where he’s been tantalizingly close to a win before. And, of course, Jett Lawrence was wearing the target that the entire field of established champions wanted to hit. Daytona was a big one.
We now know what happened. Lawrence came, saw, and conquered. It was a statement-level ride, and now it’s up to everyone else to respond back. You know what that means? It means this darned weekend is also super important!
Let’s have none other than James Stewart explain with some words from his Bubba’s World Podcast this week:
“I’m telling you again! You better stop that fool. You better stop him. Because if you don’t….it’s over. It’s over.”
We know how momentum works in this sport. Takeovers can be swift. Seems crazy to say, but the Lawrence era could already be here. It’s up to everyone else not named Jett Lawrence to stop that takeover from taking root, or it might be a long, long time before it ends. That’s why round nine, which will mark the halfway point of a 17-round Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship, is so key.
Let’s count the reasons.
Confidence is Growing: That’s the main reason. If you really think about it, no one has really straight-up passed and beaten Jett Lawrence so far this season. He hasn’t been dominant like he was in 2023 Pro Motocross, but his problems have been of his own doing. Bad starts. Dumb mistakes. Struggles in the mud. No one has yet given reason for Jett to think he can’t win this title as long as he gets out of his own way. Daytona, especially this year, bred mistakes, but this time he kept the rookie errors at bay and handled it all without problems. That’s why Jett pounded his chest as he approached the finish. He threw it away in Arlington, he learned from that in Daytona. If he really starts to cut back on the mistakes, he’s gonna be tough to stop.
How Important Was the Quad? But wait! If you’re an Eli Tomac supporter you’d like to keep this talk within the small picture. This wasn’t Jett figuring things out or taking things to a new level. This was just Eli being unwilling to jump one rhythm section in one race. That Daytona rhythm section won’t be back again, and in the rest of the races, we haven’t seen many other jump combos that separated Jett from the field. Maybe we were one jump away from seeing Eli win Daytona again? Maybe Birmingham will be his weekend?
If you dive into the data, Jett averaged a 20.9 segment 3 time in that Daytona rhythm, compared to a 21.8 for Tomac. That’s a huge gap. In the rest of the track, it was much closer: Segment 1 was 16.4 for Tomac and 16.3 for Lawrence, Segment 2 was 27.3 for Tomac versus 27.4 for Lawrence, Segment 4 was 9.8 for Tomac and 9.3 for Lawrence, and Segment 5 was 16.8 for Tomac and 17.0 for Lawrence. So Lawrence was nearly a second per lap faster in Segment 3 (with the big rhythm) but they were exchanging tenths everywhere else. Lawrence also had a nice gap in Segment 4, which had the whoops. Still, it’s an easier mountain to climb when you know a few jump combos and line choices—which won’t even exist the next weekend—made all the difference.
Is Sexton Back?: Chase Sexton said was at 80 percent with a hand injury at Arlington, and then maybe 85 percent at Dayton. He’s also back to his normal riding schedule during the week, and we’ve seen some new tricks on his bike. He definitely looked feistier in the races at Daytona, going fast early, which is what Sexton is known for. Is there more speed under the hood that we have not seen yet? That will be a huge topic over the second half of the season. Which starts just about now.
New Track: We headed into Arlington buzzing about Webb’s record there (most wins ever at AT&T Stadium) and Daytona buzzing about Tomac’s record there (most wins ever at DIS). Now we have a totally different scenario, with zero supercross history at Protective Stadium in Birmingham. While we hear the stadium has a similar look and layout to San Diego, we don’t know what the dirt will be like. And, further…
We Don’t Know The Weather?: We’ve heard fears of rain at this race as early as last Friday, eight days before the event, which is a little crazy. But there is still some rain in the forecast on Saturday. It could turn into another mud race, and that led to wild swings in the results when we saw them in San Francisco and San Diego. Especially for Lawrence. Definitely something to consider.
Wind in or out of the Sails?: Jason Anderson had a strong second-place finish in Glendale (which was, hey, decided very much by one rhythm section, where Ken Roczen was more consistent. So sometimes it does just come down to that and nothing more, which is what you want to hear if you’re Eli Tomac). Now Anderson has gone down early in back-to-back races. He’s down 29 points. Will Anderson have the same fire he did a few weeks ago in search for a win?
Wind in or out of the Sails Too?: Similarly, Aaron Plessinger was plenty fast at Glendale but he crashed while pressing Roczen for the lead. Then he podiumed Arlington. A big crash at Daytona left him, luckily, unhurt, but 28 points out of the lead. Will he have the same fire he did when we was running for the red plate?
- Supercross
Birmingham
Sunday, March 10- QualifyingLiveMarch 9 - 6:30 PM UTC
- Night ShowLiveMarch 10 - 12:00 AM UTC
- Nigh Show (Re-air)March 11 - 5:00 AM UTC
Part 3: Notice a pattern here? After Glendale there were signs of life in Ken Roczen championship bid. He’s 27 down, now. So it’s the same question for Ken as it is for Aaron and Jason. We’ll see if that matters this weekend.
Spotted Mookie Fever: Don’t look now but we might finally have the old Malcolm Stewart walking among us. He was fast in spots at Arlington, and while his seventh at Daytona doesn’t seem amazing, he moved forward to do it.
250 East is Nuts: Now, let’s apply everything we’ve said about the 450 class, wrap it in foil, stick it in a microwave hooked to a 240V outlet (not recommended) and watch some stuff blow up. You think this 450 division has been close and unpredictable this year? Bro, we had multiple guys basically lose their seasons in a Detroit first turn crash, and by round three they’re already right back in it! Points leader Max Anstie has gone 3-6-8. Coty Shock is four points out. Haiden Deegan won when Austin Forkner crashed badly, and then Deegan nearly did the same in practice at Daytona. We don’t quite yet know how good year two Tom Vialle is in a regular supercross yet, and Cameron McAdoo has proven, well, just how nuts this class is. Mix small sample size with a deep field and you don’t know what you’re going to get.
Maybe this weekend will provide some answers. It sure as heck better.
