Two rounds left and we simply couldn’t ask for a better championship fight in the 450 class of the Lucas Oil AMA Pro Motocross Championship. With a one-point differential between Tomac and Sexton, we enter a track that favors points leader Tomac. His three consecutive wins have to create an air of confidence for #3 and a daunting task for the #23. Further, Sexton has only scored one podium at Ironman for his career, a third overall in 2018. While Sexton is on the best form of his career, we can often look to the past for what the future likely holds.
The Ironman track is a rutty affair. The sticky dirt locks riders into ruts for extended ranges and riders that can navigate those at speed will find success here. It’s a much different racetrack than the two previous weekends. Unadilla was hard and slippery, never really giving any positive feel. Budds Creek was much more agreeable on that front with man-made berms giving defined boundaries to utilize for traction. Ironman will require a slower, more tactical approach. Trying to blitz Ironman in the same style as Budds Creek will almost always end up in with your motorcycle facing the wrong direction. Having that softer, ruttier soil will give Tomac a nice opportunity to take maximum advantage of his beloved scoop tire, too.
In the 250 Class, Jett Lawrence has been in a bit of a slump. He hasn’t led a lap since Spring Creek, meaning we have been through six full motos without the points leader out front. That’s a significant change from the week-in week-out winning that Jett was enjoying. Luckily for him, the points situation hasn’t reflected that as he carries a 37- and 43-point lead over Jo Shimoda and his brother, Hunter Lawrence, respectively. One could argue that he is more in “championship mode” and that’s lowering the likelihood of him winning races, but I point to a bit more volatility in his starts and riding. For most of the season, he was the rider grabbing the great start and avoiding the drama. In the last two races, he has not been able to maintain that aura of calm. He has done a good job of fighting against the adversity, extending his points lead along the way, but it’s hard to claim that it’s been a smooth August. I don’t think he likes playing second fiddle to Shimoda, so I am expecting a bounce back versus a “cruise to the finale” approach.
[It is possible for Jett to clinch the 250 Class title this weekend. The Australian would need a few different things to go his way, so the championship will likely come down to the finale.]
Who’s Hot
RJ Hampshire won his first race since RedBud 2021. He has been vocally harsh about his motorcycle but also gave a lot of credit to his team for responding to the ask.
Jo Shimoda has really come into his own this summer after a very tough SX season. He has won two out of the last four motos.
Guillem Farres was an unknown quantity for most of the American motocross scene. He changed that last weekend with a very impressive debut.
Related: Guillem Farres on U.S. Debut with Star Yamaha at 2022 Budds Creek National
Jason Anderson snagged his second win of the season (and his career). He has been steadily improving throughout 2022.
Ken Roczen fought through a hot day to land back onto the podium at Budds. Normally, a third wouldn’t be much to write home about for KR but the conditions made it that much more impressive.
Ryan Dungey continues to impress. No, he hasn’t landed that elusive podium, but this return has been a success for all involved.
![RJ Hampshire]()
RJ Hampshire Align Media ![Farres_Privateers_AlignMedia_MX22_BuddsCreek_466]()
Farres_Privateers_AlignMedia_MX22_BuddsCreek_466 Jason Thomas
Who’s Not
Hunter Lawrence has been bounced up and down and all around in the last two rounds. He also lost second place in the standings to Shimoda along the way. He will be looking to take that back as there are always big financial ramifications for those top three positions.
Benny Bloss hasn’t been able to maintain that consistency he found mid-season. He has the speed but the DNF’s have been mounting lately. I’m a fan so I’m hoping he turns this around.
Justin Barcia landed in hot water after yet another incident with… checks notes… literally any rider.
Aaron Plessinger hasn’t been able to consistently find the podium form that his KTM bosses are surely looking for.
Bold Predictions
Bar X Suzuki claims Haiden Deegan’s Monster Energy Yamaha Star Racing YZ250F and there are no Suzuki dealers left to stop it.
The FIM World Supercross Championship (WSX) announces the triumphant signings of Mike Brown and Barry Higgins to the roster. They will be riding for the rekindled Team Tamm effort.
With Honda not winning a 450 championship since 2004, they burn incense throughout the weekend and hang dreamcatchers all over their hospitality area.
Justin Barcia launches a good will campaign leading up to the weekend, visiting local charities and speaking out against worldwide injustices. He commemorates this by absolutely annihilating several riders during the first moto.
My Picks
250
Jett Lawrence
Jo Shimoda
Justin Cooper
