By Aaron Hansel, Chase Stallo and Jason Weigandt
Six races down in a 17-race season. We're one third of the way through Monster Energy Supercross. Thanks to Ryan Dungey's massive points lead, the racing seems predictable, but in reality what we've seen so far is far from what we expected.
To prove it, we will pretend to go back in time to January 8, just before the season began, and answer the following three questions based on what we thought would happen back then. To these three staffers, the season hasn't shaped up at all like we thought. What did you think was going to happen? Leave your comments below.
1. Cooper Webb wrapped up the title after seven races last year. Any chance he wraps up the title this year in Dallas?
Aaron Hansel: Absolutely. I’m not saying it’s going to be easy, there are plenty of dudes who can prevent him from doing it, but if he did it last year he can do it again. Granted, there are nine points-paying races this year and there were only eight last year, so proportionally he’d have to do it quicker, but I think he’s a little better this year than last—he was tremendous on the 450 during the off-season. Also, did you know not a single one of the guys he’s racing against is in danger of pointing out this year? That’s right, none of the guys have exceeded the points threshold twice, which to me is a sign of inconsistency on their part. Webb, on the other hand, has gone over the limit every year since joining the class in 2014. He’s extremely fast, he’s consistent, he’s the reigning champ. Not only do I think it’s possible he can wrap it up in Dallas, I’ll probably be a little surprised if he doesn’t.
Chase Stallo: Dallas? No, and only because unlike last year 250SX has gone back to being nine rounds instead of eight. Vegas counts for points again. So, instead of needing to be up twenty-five points after round seven he would need to be fifty points clear of second—a very tall order. To realistically have a shot at this, he would have to win every round and pick up a margin of 7.14 (essentially eight) points a race over second. To me, that’s asking a lot against experienced riders like Joey Savatgy, Christian Craig, Zach Osborne and Jessy Nelson. He’ll win the title, but not that early.
Jason Weigandt: Absolutely. I’ve got Dallas circled as a real pivotal point for him, because there will be two races to go, but also a huge break for the 250SX East Region. I think it’s doable for Cooper to get a fifty-point lead by then, and I’m excited about the possibility of him getting on a 450 for some east races. If the title is already wrapped up, what’s the risk? I expect Cooper to win a bunch—maybe all seven—of the first seven rounds. I think he’s just too good, too confident, too mentally tough not to. Plus, there are some fast competitors in 250 West Region but some of those guys have been inconsistent in the past, while Cooper has been lights out lately. His starts sometimes scare me but he overcame that last year and I expect more of the same. Wrapped by Dallas? 450 starting a little later—maybe Daytona? Wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Did you think Webb would have the title wrapped after Dallas?
Yes 589 votes - 30.6%
No 1333 votes - 69.4%
2. Ryan Dungey had exactly a whole race's worth of points (25) on second place after just eight rounds last year. Any chance he does it again that quick, if at all?
Hansel: I don’t think so. I know we say this every year, but the field is just too deep. James Stewart is back, Chad Reed will be in the mix, and you just know Trey Canard is going to be a factor up front. Then of course we’ve got past winners like Eli Tomac, Ken Roczen, Cole Seely, Justin Barcia, and Davi Millsaps. No doubt they’re going to be stronger this year than last. Same goes for Jason Anderson. He had some amazing races last year and word is he’s going even faster this year. I think he’ll have the up-and-down thing figured out too. We can’t forget about Christophe Pourcel either, whose specialty has always been supercross. Yeah, he’s unpredictable, but he had some really good races in Lucas Oil Pro Motocross last year and he really seems to like that Rockstar Energy Husqvarna team. Yes, Dungey was stellar last year, but I think the guys will close that gap in 2016. He may still win the title, but it’s going to be a lot harder and I seriously doubt he’ll have an entire race worth of points on second place that fast.
Stallo: A full race lead? After just eight rounds? Is this some kind of sick joke? Look, I like Ryan to repeat for the first time in his career, but have you seen this field? Twenty factory-supported riders will line the gate in 2016. No, not all are title favorites, but that’s a lot of talent to work through if you mistime a start or two. Plus, remember that guy named Ken Roczen who won two of the first three rounds last year before injury? Yeah, he’s back. Or what about that guy Eli Tomac, who was crushing the field in Lucas Oil Pro Motocross before injury? He’ll surely garner an early win or two. Again, I like Dungey for the title, but it will probably be much closer than last year.
Weigandt: That would be crazy. Dungey was the man last year, no doubt, and I think it’s safe to say he would have won the title no matter what. But I think the exceptionally huge early lead was helped by a perfect storm of trouble for his competitors. James Stewart wasn’t even there. Chad Reed got a zero at round three due to the black flag. Ken Roczen ate it at Oakland and never fully recovered. Eli Tomac crashed out of Anaheim 1. There were a lot of huge points swings in Dungey’s favor early. I can’t see all of those guys getting hurt or missing races or getting DNFs again. If guys like Tomac and Roczen are there every week, no way Dungey has that big of a lead just a few races in.
Did you think Dungey would have a 25-point lead over second after eight rounds?
Yes 535 votes - 36%
No 950 votes - 64%
3. Christian Craig is coming back to supercross for the first time since 2013. How will he do?
Hansel: I’m not sure why we’re even discussing this. The guy’s got talent, but he’s only raced eleven professional supercross races in his entire career, and the last time was in 2013. To put that in perspective, Webb turned pro after Craig's last supercross race. Are we really expecting greatness? This year he’ll be going up against a big group of 250SX veterans too. Plus, he’s older now and even has a child. You know what having a kid does to a man? There are too many side effects to list, but making you faster on a dirt bike is not one of them. Trust me, I have two little speed-sucking demons of my own, although Craig has cited being an example for his son as one of his reasons for coming back, so in his case maybe it'll actually help. Let’s be real: it will be tough for him to get to the level as guys like Jessy Nelson, Zach Osborne, Joey Savatgy, and the rest. He may get a few top fives once he starts putting things together at the end of the season, but I’d be shocked if he made the podium, and if he wins I’ll eat a crusty old air filter and wash it down with my RM-Z’s spent motor oil.
Stallo: The West Region is pretty top heavy, so while it will take some time to get accustomed to the whole supercross thing again, he’ll put in some top ten performances early. As the season plugs along, he’ll grow into a top five contender (although not week-in and week-out) and maybe snag a podium. Pure talent has never been a question for Craig, he’s like watching art on the track, but it takes time to readjust, especially to supercross, after that much time off. I think he’ll be happy if he’s top seven in points with a podium at the end of the year.
Weigandt: I think he will do well. Word from the test track is that Christian is hauling, and that’s not a total shock because we’ve always known he has the talent. Christian Craig 1.0 had a tough time putting all the pieces together physically and mentally, though, but he sure seemed like a different rider when he showed up for the Nationals last summer. He’s going to be fast and he’s going to be good—he’s my sleeper.
I don’t know if he’ll win a race, though. He’s up against the brick wall of Cooper Webb, so that’s tough on anyone. Second, although everything seems to be trending positive for Christian, you just can’t totally trust that he’ll bring these test track speeds to the races until we see it. He’s had trouble replicating it before, so we’ll just have to wait for the actual races to see if Christian Craig 2.0 can succeed where 1.0 could not.
As for Hansel’s part about the kids: seriously, we need to get over this. There is zero recent evidence of dudes getting slower when they have kids, get married, or anything like that. This is a 1980s fallacy, back when riders were just beat up physically by those cruddy old bikes by age 24. I can’t think of a single example of a rider where we can say, “Oh yeah, that’s the first year he had the kid and look how much he started to struggle.” To us working stiffs, yeah, kids get in the way of activities like riding dirt bikes. Maybe it makes us try to stay safer. I understand, my bikes don’t get the use they should! But these guys are a professional athletes. They don’t have the same fears we do. And with a small window in which to win races and make a living for the family, the support group steps up in ways we regular Joes can’t relate to. Christian will be fine—hell, he might even be better now that he’s a dad. We tend to think about kids being a distraction. But since when was chasing chicks as a single guy not a distraction?
Where did you slot Craig prior to the season?
Race winner 197 votes - 15.1%
Podium guy 477 votes - 36.5%
Top five guy 490 votes - 37.5%
Top ten guy 142 votes - 10.9%
