The track for the opener is a tricky one. It’s one of the more practiced-upon rounds of the series, which certainly helps, but that doesn’t make it any less difficult on race day. Riders will have a good idea of what setup will work or not work but race day prep can vary greatly from a random Tuesday afternoon. For example, using the “scoop” tire will be the likely route chosen but as the track gets harder in the southern California sunshine, the tire will become more difficult to manage. The riders very likely wouldn’t use this tire on this track during the week so how does effect the handling of the motorcycle on race day versus what they think they know? Those little nuances are the variables that riders won’t know until they are in the midst of managing the moto. Typically teams will use prior data to help answer questions but if you’re on a new chassis like Jett and Hunter, they don’t have 2025 chassis data for this track. This situation is where riders will rely on their teams to quickly get them to the right setting. The quicker they get to the right change, the better the result will likely be. It’s that simple.

The start for Fox Raceway is critically important. This is not an easy track to pass on, especially if buried deep in the pack. Many of the corners are able to be protected from the inside and that especially creates big log jams on the first lap. If a contender starts 20^th, they will have a very difficult time getting to the front quickly. Chase Sexton has been incredibly proficient at this racetrack but his starts have been very inconsistent historically. With the depth we will see Saturday, he can’t allow the likes of Prado, Jett, Tomac, etc to escape early. The late race surge that he was able to wield so effectively last season will be much less impactful against a healthy, full field. The first lap positioning will be more important at this round than most and something to watch for.

In the 250 class, I don’t think this same dynamic is as critical for Haiden Deegan. I have him as the clear favorite coming in and I think he will be able to overcome more challenges than the uber stacked 450 class. His ability to overcome adversity in 2024 was notable and I don’t have any reason to believe that will change. He will have more confidence than ever, and that’s saying something. He will face a flurry of foes that want this to be their breakout year but I simply don’t think they can sustain the relentless excellence that Deegan has outdoors. Will they have flashes? Yes, that’s almost a guarantee. The question is more in if they can do it week in and week out without giving away handfuls of points every other round. Inconsistency against Deegan will bury any chance at a title. He will try to force any upstart to be perfect, exerting maximum pressure on and off the racetrack. He will make targeted comments to them on the podium, antagonize them on social media, and push them to their breaking point late in every moto. He’s going to be tough to beat coming off the success of 2025, let alone his championship in this very class a year ago.

Who’s Hot

Chance Hymas has been working on his motocross skills for two months now. He circled this series before the 250SX East even kicked off. If he doesn’t come in overprepared, I’m not sure what else he could do.

Haiden Deegan is the defending champ, won that elusive 250 SX title, and I believe feels that he is the alpha male in this class. He truly fears no one in this series and will likely ride in a way that reflects it.

Levi Kitchen has been silently preparing for this series for a while now. He hasn’t had to interrupt his prep with SX practice and hasn’t had to travel every weekend. The work has been put in. The question remains, though, if that’s enough to beat Deegs for 11 rounds.

Seth Hammaker is riding the best he ever has in his career. I believe he is going to bring that “next level” outside. Does that mean he’s winning races or simply a podium guy every week? Hard to say but he will be better than we have seen and momentum is on his side.

Chase Sexton is the most prepared of the 450 contenders. His base fitness is beyond reproach and gives him an edge over the others. He’s had to balance MX prep versus staying SX sharp but I don’t expect a long adjustment period. He needs to assert himself early and often in this series.

Who’s Not

Cooper Webb is riding high after his third SX title but I think this MX series is going to prove difficult. He’s still fighting a thumb injury and MX simply doesn’t come as easy to him in this 450 field. I don’t expect a brilliant summer for Webb but I do think he will have it figured out by the time September arrives.

Jason Anderson’s exit from the SX series is still a mystery. He’s been riding for a few weeks now but is that break going to show up on Saturdays? I don’t expect to see him on green for 2026 so if things start slow and you told me he once again departed this championship, I wouldn’t be taken aback in surprise.

RJ Hampshire announced his full time move to the 450 class but I’m still befuddled by a (another) wrist surgery that I thought he just had. Until I see the gate drop Saturday and he’s behind it, I will be unsure about his status for this opener.

The Unknowns

I have never used a category called Unknows before, but I have to do it here, and riders like Jett Lawrence, Eli Tomac, Hunter Lawrence, and Jorge Prado need to be placed here. The expectations for them are super high but there’s simply no way to know what they’re going to bring on Saturday. Performance coming back from injury is one of the toughest dynamics to predict with any accuracy. Could they be in the “Who’s Hot” category? Sure. Could they also be in the “Who’s Not”? Also, sure. We simply won’t know until the sun grows long on Saturday.

Bold Predictions

Haiden Deegan has his team use a Lamborghini Gallardo as the mechanic cart.

Sometime around 25 minutes into the second moto, Cooper Webb begins planning a Caribbean vacation.

Justin Cooper holeshots the first moto and everyone collectively whispers, “I totally forgot about J-Coop.”