Second Half and Silly Season Preview

Weege: Yes, it has been good. Even without Eli and Jett, every race has somehow been exciting except for Indy, which was a Cooper Webb blowout. So, here's the first big question. It's been good so far, yes, but did Indy set a trend? So much rests on Chase Sexton's shoulders right now. Fifteen points down is honestly not much, that can be erased quickly. But the way the last few races have gone for he and Coop, it feels like Coop has completely taken control. Of course, I know better than to believe that. Eight races to go is a lot, and Sexton has fixed some of these mid-season, ahem, let's call them "issues" in previous years. I think we're in for more drama and unexpected things. Do you?

Matthes: Yeah, anything can happen at any time for sure, so this sport always makes it tough to talk about this or that is going to happen. Our athletes are so close to being out for a while every time they hit the track. But yes, I think Sexton will pull it together and start ripping off some wins here or there. I’m not sure he’s going to overcome this 15-point deficit unless something (see above) happens to Webb. Here’s an interesting question for you Weege, who else gets a win in these final races? We’ve got 6 winners so far- do we get a seventh?

Weege: Bro here is the part that matters. If Sexton starts ripping off wins, 15 points is nothing. If, as soon as Birmingham's Triple Crown this weekend, he wins, let's say Ken Roczen gets second and Webb third, boom, he's cut five points out of the lead. Does a ten-point lead with seven races to go seem secure at all? This is just an example of how quickly and easily it can turn. Also, do you know what the following, final eight races have in common? You've got Birmingham, Seattle, Foxboro, Philadelphia, New Jersey, Pittsburgh, Denver, and Salt Lake. They're all open stadiums! All in places where you could get rain...or even snow! So, now I have to slam two of my theories together. 1) As you know I hate counting points and expecting certain finishes well in advance of them happening. I'm not counting on Webb finishing second every time Sexton wins. That's not how 50-ish seasons of this have worked out (yes, Reed/RC did it like that in 2003. That's ONE time. Only). 2) I also hate predicting mud races in advance. However, I will make an exception with this eight-race stretch and say you're gonna see rain (or snow) be a factor and that will not only open the door for Sexton to make up points, but, yes, for a guy like Barcia or Plessinger to become winner number seven. I think it happens! Especially right toward the very end, if Webb and Sexton are only worried about each other in a mud race. 

Think about these stadiums and the springtime weather in these cities, Steve. Doesn't that at least open up better odds for Sexton?

Matthes: Yes, absolutely it does. Webb isn’t some mud-master right? So yeah, things could get interesting here in the series but Sexton’s got to make a move towards less volatility and more consistent riding. It says here that he can, and he will. Slumps happen, he’s in one now but week off and I think he’ll build on a (somewhat) good Indy SX performance. You mention AP and yeah, him getting a win in a mudder would be amazeballs and something else to add to this interesting season. Speaking of interesting, here’s something we talked about on one of our janky shows. AP, Malcolm Stewart, Justin Barcia and Justin Cooper’s deals are all up. IF (and I know that’s a big if) the salaries were the same and you were in charge of hiring them, rank them in order for me of who you would sign?

Weege: Now that's a spicy meatball, Steve! This off season will be extra odd because A) No one is quite sure of the KTM/GasGas/Husqvarna budget (although I believe that financial ship has been righted quite a bit recently) and B) You've got Ducati and Triumph entering the 450 ranks (although you've said it will likely just be Jordon Smith as Triumph's 450 guy for now). So, we don't know how many spots exist. There's a wilder scenario, though. While fans gravitate toward certain riders based on personality and marketability, I believe teams still only care about results, primarily, and so while guys like AP and Mookie are loved by everyone, I'm not sure if that moves the needle in this department. Historically it actually hasn't, but maybe we're entering a new world with all this content out there, and brands will pick a rider based on personality? I think they should consider that, but I'm not sure they do.

I'm saying all of this to set up one point: Justin Cooper might actually have the highest ceiling of this group, just based on how much newer into the class he is than the rest. No one is thinking about this, though, because he doesn't have a fraction of the name recognition of Plessinger, Stewart, or Barcia. Straight up. Does that matter? We'll see. If I had to roll every aspect together, results indoors and out, as well as popularity, I'm going with Plessinger first. But I don't sign the checks. What do you think? Will the teams do anything more than look at results on paper here? 

Matthes: Typical Weege playing it safe! I asked you to rank them Weege and you replied with “AP”! Anyways, yeah, I’m not sure how much a riders social presence or following contributes to actual dollars on a contract right? I’ve heard VIP’s at OEM’s tell me it’s important and others tell me it’s not… it seems the goal posts move depending on the results of the rider, imagine that?

I think just based on age, you’d have to go with Justin Cooper but yeah I think in an ideal world you’d like to see him be a bit more “popular” you know? Malcolm and Barcia are 32 years old, Anderson is around there also while AP is 29. So yeah, although he’s having a down year, I’d go with Plessinger for his results and incredible following he’s got. And looking ahead to openings, I have heard from people that would know that Jordon Smith will be Triumph’s 450 guy next year with an eye towards signing a bigger name in 2027 once they work out all the bugs to the 450 bike. Ducati will look to get a big name, and Barcia sure seems to fit there with maybe Roczen doing a mixed schedule with some SX’s, some MX’s and MXGP thrown in there? But back to ranking them, I’d go with AP, J Coop, Anderson, Stewart and Barcia if everything were the same salary-wise.  

Exciting times coming in the sport though with two new 450 teams, Jett and Eli coming back from injury and the continuing elevation of the sport with SMX, Peacock and everything else. Hopefully some of this limelight can trickle down into janky podcast shows!