Let this serve as a reminder that nothing is certain in racing and sports. Jett Lawrence made so much look so inevitable for so long, that even when he finally made a big error with that huge Hangtown crash, it merely set a comeback in motion, instead of the end of run. Moto win streak done, yes, but title scenarios? Still in tact. True to form, Jett bounced back to win three straight overalls and climb back into the title hunt. He’s still only lost one Pro Motocross 450 race overall in his career.
Those stats are gonna be frozen for awhile. On Tuesday, Jett crashed at his track in Florida and hurt his thumb. He tried to ride again on Wednesday and realized the injury was worse than he first thought, and then X-rays indicated the worst.
Read the full release from Honda if you missed it.
If you’re noticing the wild coincidence that Eli Tomac and Cooper Webb are also currently out of action with thumb injuries, you’re not alone. The weirdness of Jett going from a perfect season one year to two major incidents in half a season is beaten only by the weirdness of maybe the three most reliable title contenders in the sport all suffering the same injury at the same time.
Racing, and sports, are not certain. Even when dealing with someone who had won the last eight championships he competed for, and had a perfect season last year.
So where does that leave us? The obvious answer is a Hunter Lawrence versus Chase Sexton duel for the 450 Pro Motocross Championship, although the injury randomness of 2024 reminds that someone like Justin Cooper, fourth in points and 37 points behind Hunter, isn’t mathematically out of it if more craziness comes. But Hunter v. Chase is the story here. What does that look like?
What’s wild is that Chase Sexton, he of the rollercoaster campaign which has seen him go worst-to-first one week and then not even make the podium the next, then of off the pace in the first motos and then fastest-in-the-field in the second moto 90 minutes later, might be the more known commodity here. Sexton battled for this 450 Pro Motocross crown in 2022, he’s a 450 Monster Energy Supercross Champion already. His challenge is to finally bring some consistency to the motos this summer. When he’s on, he’s shown more raw pace and late-race strength than Hunter. Will he now nail that combo more often, or will his bad moments finally catch up to him? Sexton is such an interesting case in these title battles. He’s often the guy that crashes the most, but gets injured the least.
Sexton’s summer could hinge on how much the absence of Jett means to him, mentally. Sexton was never going to admit this, but even the mentally toughest racer can’t race these days without thinking about where Jett is. If guys are out front, they’re desperate to get away from him. If they’re behind, they’re desperate to catch him. He is the measuring stick. As James Stewart says on these broadcasts every weekend, Jett dictates everything in this class. Indeed, no one else is racing their own race. They’re thinking about Jett. Sexton had two motos this year of complete freedom from that, and that was Hangtown where he went 1-1. If Sexton starts to dictate, the inconsistency might go away.
Hunter Lawrence’s execution this year has been much more consistent than Sexton. That’s by design. Sexton admits he’s an emotional rider. Hunter is the exact opposite. He focuses only on process and tries to not think about results. That sounds odd, but we can explain it like this: the end result doesn’t impact his feelings as much as his own individual performance. Did he give it his all and ride his best but still get beat? That’s fine. He’ll keep working. Did he ride badly? Then he’s not happy. Hunter tries to think process and not results.
To a normal person, it would seem like Jett’s absence would have a bigger impact on Hunter. As a 450 Pro Motocross rookie, Hunter has the pressure to keep the title within Team Honda HRC and the Lawrence family. But those are just external forces. Hunter’s whole approach is to not let those things enter his headspace. He’s prepared for this by taking his analytical, scientific, non-emotional approach. It’s not “must win” it’s “just do my best.” He’ll surely say he will ride the exact same way if he’s racing against his brother or not. Again, he just focuses on himself. This keeps the pressure off. But can Hunter really continue to live that way now? Does the mind start to wander toward what this title would mean?
That’s the new landscape and the biggest question for the second half of AMA Pro Motocross. Which rider will be impacted in the best way by the opportunity that’s in front of them? We’ve seen a darned exciting first half of this 450 title fight. But we ain’t seen ‘nothing yet.
