We have finally made it to Motocross of Nations week as we are now just a few days away from the biggest race of the year. So much can be made and built up about this event every year, but one thing that always remains constant about the Motocross of Nations is that it is truly unpredictable. Even a seemingly unbeatable or great team is never guaranteed the checkered flag at this event and it’s part of what makes it so special.
So as we sit here on Wednesday prior to the event, I felt some bench racing was due. This is my personal favorite event every year and I love trying to predict where each nation fits into the fold. Below I will lay out my power rankings for this event based strictly on what each team is capable of, going into the Motocross of Nations. Please understand that this is not a knock on any team specifically and I’m fully aware the results on Sunday can be wildly different! But it’s still fun to at least speculate.
Honorable Mentions
Estonia (Tanel Leok – MXGP | Jorgen Talviku – MX2 | Harri Kullas – Open)
This Estonian team could finish 14th or could finish fourth and I wouldn’t be wildly surprised. Tanel Leok is back again for the umpteenth time and will likely deliver like he always does. Harri Kullas has had some tremendous rides at MXoN over the years but he and Leok are both a little bit beyond their prime. We saw Talviku race in the USA this year, but I think he’s firmly behind about 10 other MX2 riders which could mean results outside of the top 20.
Norway (Cornelius Tondel – MXGP | Kevin Horgmo – MX2 | Hakon Osterhagen – Open)
MXVice’s Lewis Phillips has this team as his sleeper and for good reason, Kevin Horgmo. Horgmo could easily fair well against other MX2 counterparts meaning top 10 rides are possible against the 450s. That pays huge dividends. Tondel and Osterhagen are also both solid riders with EMX experience and could bump this team well into the top 10 with good supporting rides.
Japan (Yuki Okura – MXGP | Jo Shimoda – MX2 | Kota Toriyabe – Open)
Jo Shimoda is likely the favorite to win the MX2 class since Jett Lawrence will be in Open, Jago Geerts will be in MXGP, Tom Vialle isn’t racing, and Shimoda was the best rider in the USA in the second half. The big question mark is does Shimoda winning MX2 and maybe having two top five performances carry Japan into the top 10 overall? Okura was a late replacement on this team and neither he nor Toriyabe have much experience racing outside of the All-Japan Motocross Championship.
Switzerland (Jeremy Seewer – MXGP | Valentin Guillod – MX2 | Kevin Brumann – Open)
Jeremy Seewer enters as the top MXGP talent since Tim Gajser, Jeffrey Herlings, and Romain Febvre are not racing. He has been in peak form in the second half of MXGP this year and stands a real shot of winning the MXGP class. That means Guillod and Brumann need solid performances to lift Switzerland higher, which they certainly can do. This is another team that could easily be much higher depending on how good Guillod rides in support of what Seewer does.
Top 10
10. Canada (Dylan Wright – MXGP | Ryder McNabb – MX2 | Tyler Medaglia – Open)
I’m on the fence with Canada because I need to see more of Ryder McNabb to fully grasp it, but I expect good things. Dylan Wright is coming off a perfect season in Canada and was finishing in or near the top 10 in MXGP late last year. Medaglia is allegedly nursing an injury which could hurt this team as a whole, but even just good rides from all three should slot them into the top 10.
9. Germany (Max Nagl – MXGP | Simon Laengenfelder – MX2 | Tom Koch – Open)
Similar to other honorable mentions, the MX2 rider for Germany carries a lot of weight for them. Max Nagl has been semi-retired a few years now but is a former GP winner and still has some inspired rides in him. Tom Koch will do fine, but he will likely be their throwaway. If Simon Laengenfelder can win or battle for the win in MX2, Germany will land in the top 10. Laengenfelder finished third in MX2 this year and won the British Grand Prix. He is viewed by many as a World Championship contender moving forward and he is also very fast and flashy. If you’ve never seen him ride before, enjoy this weekend.
8. Belgium (Jago Geerts – MXGP | Liam Everts – MX2 | Jeremy Van Horebeek – Open)
Geerts jumping to a 450 is an odd move to me but I guess you just cannot make Everts be the one to do it. Geerts on a 250 is probably the favorite to win MX2 but my guess is as good as yours where he slots into the MXGP class. Eli Tomac, Mitch Evans, Maxime Renaux, Glenn Coldenhoff, Jorge Prado, Antonio Cairoli, Jeremy Seewer, that’s his competition now. If he beats some of those guys, that really helps Belgium. Everts is still building and will race for the last time with DIGA Procross KTM this weekend as he moves to Red Bull KTM next year. Van Horebeek is right at the tail end of his career but has been the backbone for Belgium’s successes before. Top five for this team is at least possible, but it will be tough.
7. Great Britain (Dean Wilson – MXGP | Max Anstie – MX2 | Tommy Searle – Open)
I almost want to put Great Britain lower but I’m going with the benefit of the doubt here. Wilson could top 10 both of his motos, but I more realistically see 10-15 for him. Anstie is racing a 250F for the first time in about six years so he could be electric, or he could be the weak point. I believe though that Searle will do some heavy lifting for this team. He’s just come off another British Motocross championship and talking with some people, they say he’s in great form right now. Searle has also done great things for GB at Motocross of Nations before, and I think we see it again this weekend.
6. Italy (Antonio Cairoli – MXGP | Andrea Adamo – MX2 | Mattia Guadagnini – Open)
The defending champions are a little bit in a swing year right now. Cairoli retired but raced some Pro Motocross so he will do fine, but I think the Cairoli of old, that wins motos at MXoN might not be there this weekend. Adamo is also solid and will be on Red Bull KTM next year alongside Everts, but he’s been a slow build these last few years and likely factors to be the sixth or so best MX2 rider. Guadagnini is interesting because he has the talent to be a top five Open rider which can certainly help pull Italy’s score down. But he also just jumped to MXGP mid-season for De Carli GasGas and struggled at times. This team is a borderline podium threat if they all ride well though.
5. Spain (Jorge Prado – MXGP | Guillem Farres – MX2 | Ruben Fernandez – Open)
Wild card team! With the sudden coming out party of Guillem Farres (who allegedly has signed a multi-year agreement with Star Racing), this team has become a true player. Prado was third in MXGP this year but was perhaps a disappointment after his borderline title run in 2021 against a stiffer field. Fernandez just signed a multi-year agreement with Honda HRC moving forward as Tim Gajser’s MXGP teammate and rode a solid season with 114 Motorsports this year. Whether or not Farres will be on a Monster Energy Yamaha Star Racing bike this weekend is still a bit of a question mark, but a solid team, nonetheless. We’re looking at a trio that will contend for podiums and maybe win this event in the coming years, but we might not be there just yet.
4. Netherlands (Glenn Coldenhoff – MXGP | Kay De Wolf – MX2 | Calvin Vlaanderen – Open)
You’d think that The Netherlands sans Jeffrey Herlings isn’t a winning team but hold the phone! They still might be! Coldenhoff and Vlaanderen both won GP’s this year and De Wolf won a moto in MX2 and stood on the podium many times. We know all too well that Coldenhoff seems to step up lately at the Motocross of Nations and he went 1-1 in 2018 at RedBud. We’re now into the realm of teams that really could win this thing with great rides, and nobody should be sleeping on The Netherlands this weekend.
3. France (Maxime Renaux – MXGP | Marvin Musquin – MX2 | Dylan Ferrandis – Open)
A healthy Dylan Ferrandis would put France nearly right on top of the power rankings, but he missed half of Pro Motocross with a thumb injury and then suffered herniated discs in his back after being taken out by Justin Barcia at Budds Creek. There was talk only a couple weeks ago that he would need to pull out of this event but supposedly he’s been feeling better and will give it a go this weekend. Renaux factors to be a main player in MXGP after he took six moto wins and the victory at Spain this year, eventually finishing fourth in his rookie MXGP season. Musquin only found out about this opportunity about two months ago and only has about one month on the 250F now. He raced the Fox Raceway 2 National in the 250 class and showed he had speed but needed to build fitness. The last time he raced a 250 for France though, he won the class. I was tempted to move France a bit lower but then I remembered this is Team France and they somehow always find a way to ride incredibly well at this event.
2. Australia (Mitch Evans – MXGP | Hunter Lawrence – MX2 | Jett Lawrence – Open)
That’s right, we get Jett Lawrence’s Motocross of Nations debut and 450 debut on the same weekend! This team is structured perfectly as the Lawrence brothers will have the short breaks with Hunter doing Race 1 and Race 2 while Jett is in Race 2 and Race 3. Evans doing Race 1 and Race 3 is perfect since there’s a longer break between motos in MXGP than in Pro Motocross (which the brothers are used to) and Evans also crashed heavily in the last MXGP moto of the year. It doesn’t sound like he’s particularly hurt, but more rest time will help. Hunter Lawrence has won the MX2 class before and Mitch Evans has been a huge help to Australia in the past. Both know how this event works and will be ready. Jett will be such an interesting piece of the puzzle to see how he reacts to the spectacle of this event for the first time and where he is speed-wise on a 450. There’s a world where Australia wins this thing though and it’s not farfetched at all.
1. USA (Eli Tomac – MXGP | Justin Cooper – MX2 | Chase Sexton – Open)
Yes, I am placing the USA at the top of the power rankings again, which is probably my fifth time in the last decade doing so and the USA has not won in a decade. But how is this not the weekend?! Eli Tomac and Chase Sexton were on a different level by the end of Pro Motocross and the case could easily be made that they are the fastest two 450 riders in the world right now. We’ve seen before where the 450 guys go 1-1-1-2 and just need a 10th from their MX2 guy to easily lift the Chamberlain Trophy. Cooper is a great starter but does run the risk of getting stuck with the group he starts with, so inside gate selections and starting with his MX2 counterparts will be crucial. But all of that aside, on a track that all three are very familiar with and the partisan crowd backing them, it’s time for the USA to bring it home.
