We’ve lived in a great era of close, competitive racing with multiple title contenders and multiple champions. Certainly, predicting championships lately has been harder than during those decades of McGrath, Carmichael, Reed, Stewart, Dungey, Villopoto. Yet, the only real reason for such parity is because the two riders that seemed destined to grab the either/or structure have somehow managed to not win it. For six years, Eli Tomac and Ken Roczen have had the ability to become 450 Supercross Champion, but they simply haven’t.

So now’s their chance. These two have been through many trials and tribulations—most self-inflicted—but are both finally in the position that has eluded them so many times. For both to finally put the pieces together in the same year, and then have that year interrupted in a pandemic the nation has not seen in 100 years, made it look like the racing gods perhaps just don’t want this to be. Yet, the racing has returned, and with it a grand opportunity. If either of these guys wins this title, it should appear not actually as a weirdo asterisk, but actually as a boost to their overall cred. They will have won perhaps the hardest supercross title there ever was to win. This is a gauntlet. They have to be the best guy in two separate halves of a season. If either wins it, they’ll have proven themselves beyond any doubt.

But in an unprecedented scenario like this, unprecedented things can happen. There’s much to gain and a massive, healthy, determined field. Here’s a rundown.

450SX Standings

1. Eli Tomac | 226 Points

Tomac gets seven races at elevation. He’ll be used to the (slower) bike, he’ll be used to the breathing, he’ll be used to the recovery. On paper, these are big advantages, but the real question goes beyond air and come down to pressure. Can Eli hold strong and avoid the mistake? Even if he does, Roczen is right there in points. Can he out do his long-time rival in this strange structure? 

2. Ken Roczen | 223 Points

We’ll have to say the elevation experience gives Tomac an advantage. If it doesn’t, there are other things that could favor Roczen. In a setup that’s uniquely different and weird, Roczen, who has always advertised running a little looser program, could thrive. He usually starts seasons strong—and this is essentially the start of a season, again. As much as the talk has been, “Is this the year Eli finally does it?” you can make no mistake, this means so much to Roczen as well.