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Sign of the (Lap) Times: Muddy Creek
Dan Carlson

Dan Carlson

Sign of the (Lap) Times Muddy Creek

June 28, 2018 10:15am
by: Dan Carlson
  • Home
  • Sign of the (Lap) Times
  • Sign of the (Lap) Times: Muddy Creek - Motocross
Muddy Creek Raceway Blountville, TN Tennessee (Muddy Creek) Lucas Oil AMA Pro Motocross Championship

Muddy Creek is in the books and Eli Tomac continued to dominate the 450 Class, keeping his overall win streak alive at five in a row and extending his points lead over Marvin Musquin.

In the 250 Class, we saw some wild moto scores equal podium finishes. Shane McElrath got his first 250 overall win with 3-2 scores, Dylan Ferrandis went 11-1 for second, and Chase Sexton went 8-4 for third overall. But the real story was Jeremy Martin crashing out of the second moto. He will miss the rest of the season, leaving his brother Alex and Aaron Plessinger to fight for the title.

Let’s dive into the lap data to figure out how these races were won and lost with this week’s Sign of the (Lap) Times. First, our traditional lap time charts. 

450 MOTO 1

LAP RANKFINISHBEST LAPON LAPAVG LAP TIMERIDER
11st1:50.91271:54.283Eli Tomac
22nd1:52.14331:54.644Justin Barcia
33rd1:52.71821:55.294Ken Roczen
45th1:53.03381:55.376Marvin Musquin
54th1:53.96651:55.174Blake Baggett
67th1:54.46641:57.403Phil Nicoletti
79th1:54.53461:58.677Benny Bloss
86th1:54.81681:57.246Weston Peick
98th1:55.37681:57.459Justin Hill
1021st1:56.98642:01.803Cade Autenrieth

450 MOTO 2

LAP RANKFINISHBEST LAPON LAPAVG LAP TIMERIDER
13rd1:50.46681:53.989Eli Tomac
21st1:51.47161:53.462Marvin Musquin
32nd1:52.14291:53.701Justin Barcia
44th1:52.58261:54.699Ken Roczen
55th1:52.58971:55.018Blake Baggett
66th1:53.21971:55.395Weston Peick
77th1:53.55051:55.437Justin Hill
88th1:54.28171:57.119Benny Bloss
99th1:54.57841:58.202Phil Nicoletti
1010th1:56.13931:58.458Kyle Cunningham

250 MOTO 1

LAP RANKFINISHBEST LAPON LAPAVG LAP TIMERIDER
13rd1:53.19941:55.439Shane McElrath
21st1:53.41671:55.080Jeremy Martin
32nd1:53.644831:55.387Justin Cooper
44th1:53.75081:55.720RJ Hampshire
55th1:53.76251:55.837Austin Forkner
612th1:53.77071:56.689Alex Martin
77th1:54.32351:56.264Jordon Smith
89th1:54.37071:56.486Aaron Plessinger
911th1:54.37261:57.598Dylan Ferrandis
1010th1:54.40181:56.987Colt Nichols

250 MOTO 2

LAP RANKFINISHBEST LAPON LAPAVG LAP TIMERIDER
12nd1:54.081161:56.083Shane McElrarth
25th1:54.24641:56.513Aaron Plessinger
31st1:54.24831:56.035Dylan Ferrandis
46th1:54.33631:56.654Jordon Smith
54th1:54.60441:56.282Chase Sexton
619th1:54.677161:56.541RJ Hampshire
74th1:54.69941:56.285Alex Martin
87th1:54.815161:56.521Joey Savatgy
98th1:55.36941:58.416Cameron McAdoo
109th1:55.50451:58.628Austin Forkner

Marvin Musquin

Musquin's 2018 outdoor campaign has seemed pretty vanilla so far. He hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been able to match the excellence of Eli Tomac yet. He's won two motos and finished in the top five in every moto this year despite some bad starts, but it still seems like something is missing. 

Wondering if something was actually wrong with Musquin or if my mind was just playing tricks on me, I went back to last year to compare Musquin's first five rounds from 2017 to 2018. The first three rounds of each season were actually pretty similar, finishing in the top four in each moto and grabbing one win in 2017. The next two rounds of 2017 went off the rails as he suffered a knee injury during practice, and by the tenth moto of the season, Musquin reached his lowest point, finishing 34th in the moto and falling 34 points behind Tomac for the championship. 

Compare that to this year, where his worst finish so far has been a fifth in the first moto at Muddy Creek, and he's actually scored 49 more points through five rounds than he did last year (210 versus 161). Musquin's been better this year, but his only problem is that Tomac has also been a lot better. He's currently 32 points behind Tomac in the points, which is two fewer than last year when he was able to get back in contention later in the season. But with the way Tomac is riding this year and the lack of depth in the 450 Class, podiums won't be enough—he'll have to rip off a string of wins.

250 Championship

Earlier this week, Weege declared that the 250 Class had officially come off the rails at Muddy Creek. With Jeremy Martin's horrific crash, we lost another title favorite (Zach Osborne's year was done after Thunder Valley) and we're left with  A-Mart battling Plessinger for the title, with the "rookie" Justin Cooper lurking not too far behind in third. 

I wanted to plot of the current top five championship contenders' points for each moto this season to see how we've progressed to this point so far. I also included Osborne just because he was the leader for the earlier rounds. I have to say, after I got done plotting out the points, I got a little bummed looking at what could have been. Plessinger, Osborne, and J-Mart were so close to each other after five motos, and non of them had shown they could take complete control of the series. But staying off the ground is part of the game, and in that way, Plessinger has taken a strong hold on the lead, sitting 29 points ahead of A-Mart.

MOTO 1MOTO 2MOTO 3MOTO 4MOTO 5MOTO 6MOTO 7MOTO 8 MOTO 9MOTO 10
PLESSINGER20386388103121146171183199
J MARTIN22446082104129151151176176
A MARTIN1434547494116125141150170
COOPER162846608598118136158158
FORKNER18182641557593115131143
OSBORNE25507288104105

Aaron Plessinger

Over the last two or three years, Plessinger has started to build a reputation outdoors. When he doesn't win, he doesn't finish very good. In fact, if you take his average finish when he doesn't win from 2016 to present day (I didn't count 2015 because rookie years are always weird) is 7.84. And he hasn't done much to buck that trend this year, averaging a finish of 5.1 when he isn't in first place. 

He currently has a a 29-point lead over Alex Martin, who is having his own issues lately. So he has a decent cushion to work with right now, but it's hard to imagine keeping that cushion when your bad finishes are in the 5-10 range. And with the way this year is going, there's really no predicting what will happen, but we'll let you guys try anyway so you can brag later in the season that you got it right. 

Does Plessinger keep his points lead for the rest of the season? Or do A-Mart, Cooper, and Forkner close the gap?

Keeps his lead. 217 votes - 41.3%

Others close the gap. 309 votes - 58.7%

  • On This Day in Moto: June 27 On This Day in Moto: June 27 3:50pm
  • Staging Area: Southwick Staging Area: Southwick 11:35am
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