The scenario: Dungey goes for the very rare three-in-a-row of Monster Energy Supercross Championships, something only accomplished by Bob Hannah, Jeremy McGrath, Ricky Carmichael, and Ryan Villopoto.

The treat: Dungey was by far the best rider early in the 2016 season, whipping everyone’s ass for the first two months and essentially icing the title by March. Even when some riders found their groove, Dungey fought them for wins through every inch. He ended up with nine wins and a 60-point lead. For this year nothing in his program changes—same bike, team, trainer, sponsors, etc. We don’t think Dunge ever tires of the work, either.

The Trick: All win streaks eventually end. The target grows ever bigger, the competition ever younger … hard to believe the upcoming season will mark seven years since Dungey won his first 450SX title. You can count on Dungey to be great, but there’s always the chance someone else figures out how to be better. (By the way, that was the same scenario in 2015 and 2016, too, and Dungey rolled ‘em.)

Ken Roczen

The scenario: Once again Roczen comes off of a Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship and switches teams. Is this the year he breaks through and wins the Monster Energy Supercross title?

The treat: Outdoor dominance and a late-season SX surge shows Kenny has his physical and mental program dialed—the only question is the switch to the new bike. It sure looked good at the Monster Energy Cup. Honda is pouring huge dollars into this program, and with Roczen they have a super-talent just as he hits his prime. That’s a serious combo.

The trick: Someone, right now, is probably saying, “Yup, that new Honda bucked him off at Monster Energy Cup.” Kenny also looked incredible the first time we saw him race an RCH Suzuki, going 1-2-1 at the first three SX races in 2015. Then it all fell apart. New bikes can be tricky, too, and there’s a lot of newness with this 2017 CRF450R.

Jason Anderson

The scenario: As Donald Trump would say, Anderson’s improvement in year two of his 450 career was “Huuuuuge.” He won two races including the big one—Anaheim 1. Is he a title contender now?

The treat: Anderson is an American hero—and also a tragic one—for winning a Motocross of Nations moto with a broken foot, and then getting landed on and knocked out of the event. That was incredibly unlucky, but he’s also incredibly lucky that he didn’t get hurt worse. We saw Anderson hanging out at Red Bull Straight Rhythm and he said he was only knocked out for a few seconds in Italy, so the head injury wasn’t as severe as it looked, and his neck didn’t even hurt. After some foot surgery, he’s already back on a bike. Otherwise, he continues the same program—trainer, bike, and team.

The trick: Anderson was good last year, but still needs one more step to battle for the title. He also needs better starts more often.

Eli Tomac

The scenario: Tomac enters year two with Monster Energy Kawasaki hoping for more than his debut year, where he won Daytona but didn’t threaten for many SX wins beyond that.

The treat: Everyone knows Tomac and this team are capable of big things. But they never quite found that magic combination for most of the year. Finally, things seemed to click at the end, when he dominated the USGPs at Charlotte and Glen Helen, and won the Monster Energy Cup. Perhaps a full season together has unlocked what’s needed.

The trick: Well, Tomac won the Monster Energy Cup but Roczen looked to be a little faster there (for whatever off-season races are worth, which usually isn’t much). Also, Roczen wasn’t at those USGPs that Tomac won. In general, the Tomac/Kawi combo needs to find another gear for ’17 compared to where it was in ’16, especially indoors.

Chad Reed

The scenario: Same scenario for seemingly every year: Reed tries to prove age is only a number. Can he turn the clock back to 2014, 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008….

The treat: Reed started last year strong with second place finishes behind Dungey at rounds two and three. The rest of the season was kind of meh with just one more podium. Chad said the rejuvenated Team Yamaha was a work in progress in year one, especially since it really only became official right before Anaheim 1. Chad has said the bike worked better on the West Coast, hard pack tracks, but wasn’t where it needed to be for the Eastern rounds. With much more prep time, can Chad and company can be better on everything?

The trick: It’s supposed to be blasphemy to mention Reed’s age now that he’s taken wins against the young bucks time and time again, but the bottom line is he will turn 35 this season. If he wins a race, he’ll be the oldest SX winner ever. Moreover, can he improve from just three podiums out of 17 rounds in 2016 to grab significantly more in 2017?

Cole Seely

The scenario: Seely missed some time last year with injury, but had podium speed at many races.

The treat: Seely has serious skills, he’s entering his third year in 450SX, and this new CRF450R is carrying a lot of hype. Can he, like his contemporary Jason Anderson, take the one last step toward becoming a consistent race winner?

The trick: That last step—from great rider to superstar—is a huge one.

Marvin Musquin

The scenario: Musquin enters his second full 450 season.

The treat: It was only one race, but Marvin looked to have his teammate Dungey covered on at least one night, in Atlanta. He was better than Dungey at Straight Rhythm, too (please don’t over read into any off-season race, though, especially that one). This shows that Marvin has serious potential.

The trick: Marvin might be new to the 450 class, but he’s not the young up and comer you think he is. He’s actually only one-month younger than Dungey! How much room for growth does he have?

Justin Brayton

The scenario: It’s hard to say since there’s not an official 2017 ride for Brayton yet.

The treat: Brayton is fast in supercross. When all the pieces click, he can win heat races, lead laps, and even get a podium. We also think he’ll end up with good equipment.

The trick: More good dudes keep jamming into this class each year, so room in the top-five and on the podium keeps getting harder to find. Brayton rode well last year, but in the end his best finish was a pair of fifths.

Trey Canard

The scenario: First season on Red Bull KTM for the long-time Honda man.

The treat: Canard can summon the speed to match anyone. He’s also had injuries, but we’re hearing talk like, “the forgiving steel frame of a KTM will calm him down compared to a Honda.”

The trick: Sometimes bike and team changes make a difference, but more often, riders are who they are. Trey’s 2015 was good before he got hurt, but he actually went podiumless in 2016. Again, more riders keep jamming toward the top.

Jake Weimer

The scenario: Jake was 10th in last year’s 450SX points, starting with Team Tedder Kawasaki and moving to RCH Suzuki. But where will he be in 2017?

The treat: Jake gets a solid ride and starts this year like he started last year—by going fast. He gained lots of attention with an eighth at round two in San Diego—when the field was still loaded—as he passed a lot of factory riders on privateer equipment.

The trick: The music finally stops and Jake is left without a good ride.

The Wild Cards

Justin Barcia

The scenario: In his two seasons with JGR, Barcia missed a ton of supercross time with injuries. But when he was racing, there weren’t many big flashes.

The treat: Well, there was one flash—Barcia holeshot Anaheim 1 last year and led a few laps before a thumb injury sent him backwards. He was in surgery eight-days later. Now the team has switched from Yamaha to Suzuki. Could that be the combo Barcia needs to win supercross races again?

The trick: Barcia’s 450SX career started like this: won the Monster Energy Cup, won round two of his rookie season, won Seattle later in the year. But that was four seasons ago, and he’s still sitting on just those two career 450SX wins. If it didn’t work on the Honda or Yamaha, will it work on something else?

Weston Peick

The scenario: Peick was a revelation on JGR Yamaha in 2015, but 2016 was a disappointment.

The treat: Peick’s 2016 was derailed when he tried to bash Vince Friese’s helmet in at Anaheim 1. If he gets back on track—and gels with JGR’s new Suzuki—he’s a real dark horse.

The trick: Peick improved so much, so rapidly, from 2013-2015 that it seemed like his rise would never end. The 2016 season was his first step backward. Have we seen Peick’s peak or not?

Cooper Webb

The scenario: This year’s super-hyped rookie enters 450SX with back-to-back 250SX West titles under his belt.

The treat: Webb races wise beyond his years, and has all the “it” factors behind him. He has a special ability to learn and analyze things which makes him more dangerous than the average rookie.

The trick: A rookie is still a rookie, and we’ve seen some of the best struggle to even make all 17 rounds in year one. It’s up to Webb and Reed to prove this YZ450F can win indoor races—the brand hasn’t won a supercross main since the James Stewart days.

Davi Millsaps

The scenario: After missing all of ’14 and getting booted from Monster Energy Kawasaki in 2015, Millsaps got a rebuild in ’16 with BTOSports.com KTM (now Rocky Mountain ATV/MC KTM). He won some heats and showed legit speed before getting hurt at Daytona.

The treat: Millsaps was rebuilding himself last year and didn’t have 20 laps at full speed in him, but the speed he did have was definitely podium level. A summer winning in Canada surely didn’t hurt his fitness, either. If he keeps on the rise, he could be really good.

The trick: If you want to take this back to a Halloween theme, no one wears costumes as varied as Millsaps. During his 10 years in the class, we’ve seen everything from amazing to unfortunate to meh—and other years he’s just been missing altogether!

Christophe Pourcel

The scenario: Somehow this actually works out to only be the sophomore 450SX season for the 2009 and 2010 250SX Eastern Region Champion.

The treat: Pourcel has run qualifying laps that rank near “best all-time lap on a motorcycle.” The speed is there.

The trick: You want Halloween? Pourcel once garnered the nickname “The Joker” because you never knew what you were going to get—no one approaches racing the way he does. As comfortable as Pourcel looked doing qualifying laps, he didn’t look comfortable in the racing mix last year. His best result was an eighth, but then he got hurt. Will he go for starts and battle for positions when the gate drops?

Blake Baggett