Bench racing wars are ramping up with the 2016 Monster Energy Supercross season just weeks away. We fired questions at Jason Thomas, Jason Weigandt and Steve Matthes. Thomas and Weigandt wrote back. Matthes said, “I’m at Pro Circuit today talking to Mitch. I have to get back to my dogs now. You guys summed it up anyway.”
Well then, let’s sum it up!
1. Rocky off-season for Stewart and Reed. Are they going to be okay?
Jason Thomas: Calm down, Weege. Yes, they will be just fine. They will both be in the mix for race wins and be the same heroes we have known for a decade. The real question that I don't have an answer for is: will they be in title contention? It has been a few years since either of them were a real title threat past the halfway point and as we all know, father time is undefeated. I don't think this has been a particularly smooth few months for either, which further lowers their chance to regain the crown. I do know this, though: racing is better when those two are battling at the front. I don't know anyone not affiliated with a competitor that would argue that. So, as a fan, I hope they are ready for war come January 9.
Jason Weigandt: I'm good, I'm good. Each has an insurance policy that prevents these issues from ruining their season. Stewart is probably the most talented and skilled supercross rider we've ever seen. So he always has a puncher's chance, no matter what. Red Bull Straight Rhythm was the perfect example. He wasn't totally ready, but even then he can still jump dragon's backs and kill whoops like few others. If you can still do that, you can still win a supercross race on the right night.
As for Reed, we decided five years ago that you can never, ever count him out until he says it's time to count him out. Until he says he can't win, you can't say that he can't win. Period.
Race wins won't be a shocker for either. In fact, you’ll hear a lot more talk if they don’t win races this year than if they do. Consistency is a bigger issue. I've said this before (and no one agrees with me, by the way): when riders at this level get older, they don't lose the skill or speed, they just don’t have that speed every weekend. I see Reed now as a Kevin Windham-style opportunist. He won't be the best guy every weekend, but on the right weekend, with the right start on the right track and when he's feeling comfortable, he knows what to do and will capitalize.
Stewart will have some nights where he's feeling it and can win. I don't think Stewart is the "fastest man on the planet" seventeen weekends in a row anymore. He can't roll out of bed feeling sick and beat up, do two laps of practice, log the fastest time, go back to his motorhome, sleep, wake up and then kill everyone in the main event. That was ten years ago. But right now when he's right, he's still very dangerous.
2. Lots of guys were locked into contracts for 2015-2016. Who is really on the hot seat for 2017?
Thomas: I think there will be a lot of movement this upcoming Silly Season. Dean Wilson immediately comes to mind as a rider needing to show his potential this year. Dean is super talented and very capable but injuries have hindered his past few seasons. With the current crop on the cusp, Dean needs to turn up if he hopes to keep that Red Bull KTM spot. Wil Hahn is another rider in this category and for the same reasons. I think Davi Millsaps will be under a bit of pressure to show that he still has "it" but I don't think that it's a hot seat, per se. He has been around for a long time now so the stakes aren't as high to make or break a career. Another rider, coincidentally on the same team, is Justin Brayton. Justin had a rough 2015 season and will be in a contract year. He has all of the tools and ability to keep his factory status but will need to impress to stay ahead of the kids moving up.
Weigandt: JT nailed most of them. I think Wilson is in a tough spot because KTM has Dungey and Musquin locked up for the future. Plus, if Ken Roczen has a bad season with RCH Suzuki this year, I wouldn't rule out a return to KTM. So, Wilson needs to perform to protect his spot. But even if Dean has a rough year and KTM doesn't re-sign him, another good team will pick him up. Dean's had a few rough years, but he's not out of chances yet.
I'm a little more worried for Wil Hahn. He’s had one more year on the 450 compared to Wilson, and at least Dean has had a few "we can work with speed" moments on his resume. Teams are always drawn to that. Hahn's 450 career has featured a few solid rides, but nothing that jumps off the page. So if Wil doesn't have a good season, I'm a little more worried about him finding a soft landing spot for 2017. Hey, all he has to do is kill it this year and there’s nothing to worry about!
Finally, there's Brayton. That BTOSports.com KTM ride is underrated. Riders on that team get the same stuff the 450SX Champion gets. There’s a reason Millsaps was drawn to this team and he won’t be alone. Brayton will have to have a solid year to fend off all the younger dudes who will be begging to ride that bike in '17.
I'm actually not worried for Justin Bogle. He only has a one-year deal with GEICO Honda, but he's a rookie. As long as he's not a complete disaster, someone will be interested in his talent and potential for the future, I think. Everyone gets a few chances, now it's up to Hahn and Wilson to make the best of theirs.
3. Lots of buzz on Jason Anderson right now. What’s going on there?
Thomas: I think there are a few factors here. First, the new bike is much better. We saw how much better everyone from Andrew Short to Ryan Dungey was on the new KTM and the Husky is now on a level playing field. Anderson's starts at the Monster Energy Cup alone were proof of the improvement. Also, this is the second season of Anderson's involvement with Aldon Baker. I think Aldon has gotten Jason into a much stronger place mentally and physically. He is beginning to mature into a man capable of contending for the most prestigious dirt bike championship on earth. I didn't see that last year. I saw a youngster still working through his growing pains but flashing massive potential. I think that potential is about to be unleashed.
Weigandt: At the end of 2014, Anderson hooked up with Aldon Baker and a ton of industry people said, "No way he can handle that workload." He handled it through the off-season and got an Anaheim 1 podium. "Just wait until he has some bad races, then he'll start hating that program," they said. Well, he did have some bad races. He never wavered from the program. I've heard virtually no drama from Anderson, Baker or the Rockstar team. This union is solid and that shows Jason is committed to being a top-level professional racer. If the new bike continues to get him some starts, he will be a force to be reckoned with. Title level? I think there are a few riders ahead of him in that category but who doesn't love having more riders in the mix?
