Bench Racing Ammo: Leaving Cali - Supercross

Arlington, TX DallasMonster Energy AMA Supercross Championship

Rockstar Energy Racing’s Davi Millsaps leads the 450SX field by an impressive nineteen points as Monster Energy Supercross departs California. Lets take a look back at the past ten years to see how big of a gap the points leader typically has after six rounds out west. Is Millsaps’ gap huge compared to history? And does the points leader after round six usually go on to win the title? Dig in and find out.

2003

Points Leader after six rounds: Ricky Carmichael, by 4 over Chad Reed

Eventual Champ: Ricky Carmichael

2004

Points Leader after six rounds: Reed, by 30 over David Vuillemin

Eventual Champ: Reed

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Reed held a 30 point lead after six rounds in 2004.
Simon Cudby photo

2005

Points Leader after six rounds: Carmichael, by 32 over Reed

Eventual Champ: Carmichael

2006

Points Leader after six rounds: Carmichael, by 11 over James Stewart

Eventual Champ: Carmichael

2007

Points Leader after six rounds: Stewart, by 21 over Reed

Eventual Champ: Stewart

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RC went on to win the championship in 2006 after holding an 11 point lead over James Stewart after six rounds.
Simon Cudby photo

2008

Points Leader after six rounds: Reed, by 35 over Kevin Windham

Eventual Champ: Reed

2009

Points Leader after six rounds: Reed, by 3 points over Stewart

Eventual Champ: Stewart

2010

Points Leader after six rounds: Ryan Dungey and Josh Hill tied for first, 3 points ahead of Ryan Villopoto

Eventual Champ: Dungey

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James Stewart is the only rider in the last ten years to win a title after trailing in points after six rounds.
Simon Cudby photo

2011

Points Leader after six rounds: Villopoto, by 9 over Stewart

Eventual Champ: Villopoto

2012

Points Leader after six rounds: Villopoto, by 6 over Reed

Eventual Champ: Villopoto

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History is in Millsaps' favor as the series heads east.
Simon Cudby photo

As you can see, the numbers are highly in favor of a Millsaps championship in 2013. In fact, in the last ten years, there has only been one instance of the points leader after six rounds not winning the championship. That occurred in 2009 when Reed was leading Stewart by 3 going into round seven.

Although the trend is favorable to Millsaps, the 2010 season shows us just how unpredictable racing can be. Dungey and Hill were tied for first after six rounds, but Dungey would go on to clinch the title early in Seattle and eventually win the championship by 70 points over Windham. Hill, on the other hand, battled injuries to eventually end up placing sixth in the series, 130 points back of Dungey. Injuries ended Villopoto’s title chances that year, as well.

What’s your take on the data above? Should we forego the rest of the season and hand the title to Millsaps and the Rockstar Energy Racing team, or is Millsaps’ impressive 19-point lead meaningless? Tell us what you think in the comments section below.