Usually, the pathway through the silly season is pretty straightforward. You figure out what riders will become free agents and what teams need to shop. That’s how it was working for 2026 deals. Chase Sexton is the biggest-name free agent on the board, and word is that he’s leaving KTM and moving to Monster Energy Kawasaki. That’s big deal number one. Then Eli Tomac, who was set to retire, decided he wants to keep racing and went shopping as a free agent, also. Unfortunately for him, Yamaha needs to pay Cooper Webb his championship-level worth and re-sign Haiden Deegan for a 450 deal (which it just did). Yamaha never planned for Tomac to keep racing in 2026, certainly not at the salary he commands, so the two sides have to part. Eli went shopping and found a suitable spot in Sexton’s vacated position at Red Bull KTM. So, it’s likely you will see Sexton on a Kawasaki and Tomac on a KTM next year.
Then the other free agents found homes. We’re not 100 percent sure on these deals, but the most likely rider/team combos are Justin Barcia and Dylan Ferrandis at Troy Lee Designs Ducati, and Jason Anderson at Twisted Tea Suzuki. Again, pretty straightforward with riders available and teams looking for talent.
But now, a twist!
It started, actually, with Tom Vialle winning his second 250SX East Division Championship in Monster Energy AMA Supercross, thus triggering a required move to 450 supercross. Red Bull KTM wanted to keep Tom and offered a one-year 450 deal for 2026. But over in the FIM Motocross World Championship (MXGP), teams are getting aggressive with crazy moves expected, including the chance that longtime Honda rider Tim Gajser and longtime KTM rider Jeffrey Herlings will both find something new. With Gajser possibly gone, Honda’s MXGP team pulled a shrewd move and offered Vialle a solid multi-year MXGP (450) deal. We now hear Vialle is going to take that deal and return to Europe. Why does that matter to American teams?
Well, unless you’ve been living under a rock, you have certainly noticed Jorge Prado’s move to the AMA circuit hasn’t resulted in good results. The four-time Motocross World Champion has been a race winner his whole life, but now we’re down to everyone considering a top five at Ironman as a sign of progress. Nine rounds into the series and Jorge hasn’t even been close to winning on this Monster Energy Kawasaki. He’s also not shy about saying the bike is not working for him. Jorge has a high-dollar multi-year Kawasaki contract.
But, Vialle is now out at KTM. KTM plans to once again have a four-rider team, but it could do three 450 riders and one 250 rider (Julien Beaumer). Tomac and Aaron Plessinger are expected to be the 450 guys. Could KTM basically give the 450 offer they had to Vialle and give it to Prado?
From what we’ve heard, Prado’s people have made some calls and investigated options. Could he or would he get out of his Kawasaki deal to move to KTM? That’s the huge question right now.
Prado raced for KTM and GasGas throughout his GP career, so this would be a return home to the brand, even though he would remain in America. For what it’s worth, Prado did jump on a supercross track in California with Kawasaki after Washougal and was very happy with the green bike there. He’d also be walking away from a lot of salary if he ends his Kawasaki deal early, as the KTM offer isn’t as lucrative. Would and could he get out of a deal and take less money to get back on an Austrian bike? That’s the biggest silly season question right now.
This creates a cascade effect. If Prado did leave, what does Kawasaki do with his 450 slot? At this point there aren’t a lot of riders left. We can really only think of Ken Roczen as a free agent 450 option, as Ken has been doing one-year deals with HEP/Progressive Suzuki. We hear Ken has a nice offer from the Suzuki team to return for 2026, though. Could Kawi call Anderson back? That seems unlikely. Heck, this got so crazy over the last few weeks that we even heard that Tomac was considering a return to Kawasaki! His KTM deal isn’t or wasn’t signed quite yet. Seems absolutely wild, and very unlikely, Tomac would go back to his old team, so don’t expect that to happen. It does show how much chaos takes place when one chess piece (Prado) considers an unexpected move.
It's very much possible none of this happens and Prado stays at Kawasaki. He’d be walking away from a lot of money to leave, and we’re not even sure he could get out of the deal. If he stays, KTM could still take a third 450 guy, or find someone else on a 250 and keep the same two 450s/two 250s roster it has in 2025.
Silly season. It’s not over yet!
