1. Tomac is Too Much:

Look, Aaron Plessinger led most of that moto and also held off Lawrence. We’ll get to AP in a second. But the record shows that Eli Tomac won in the first “non-injured moto loss” for Jett Lawrence. Yeah, Eli Tomac! He’s a beast, he’s a legend, one of the all-time greats (now second all-time in career 450 moto wins) and he doesn’t seem to have lost anything even after missing nearly two full outdoor seasons with injuries. One could easily argue that Tomac would have been dealing quite a few loses to Lawrence if he was there to battle him in 2023 and 2024. In fact, you can stop reading right now, if you want. That might just sum up everything, right there, full stop.

2. The Plessinger Factor:

He can’t really explain why, but Plessinger thought there were two laps left in the race when there were actually four to go. He sprinted and then cruised at all the wrong times. Because of that Lawrence nearly ran him down on the last lap, but he didn’t. So, while one could just put all of this on “Tomac is back” it’s key to remember that Plessinger, who was there for just about all of the Lawrence wins in 2023 and 2024, beat him this time. Aaron is fast this year, maybe even faster than last year, when he was already good. He’s pointed to coming into outdoors without an injury from supercross (first time in a lontg time) has really helped. Tomac is on it and so is AP!

3. The Start Factor:

Jett’s incredible 450 MX win record has coincided with insane starts. It’s not just Jett, because Hunter Lawrence nails ‘em too. Can you remember Jett ever having to catch and pass Chase Sexton outdoors even once? We can’t. Well at Hangtown the bubble burst. Jett’s start was okay but he was behind Tomac early. What happened? Honda chose a knobby rear tire instead of the scoop, which isn’t quite as good for starts. Jett said he missed a shift and hit the rev limiter. His start still wasn’t horrific but he had to catch the guys at the front, and he did not do it. My broadcast partner James Stewart has been saying for two years that Jett doesn’t have as much speed to burn as it looks. He controls the pace from the front. He’s so smooth it appears he can just go 20% faster at any time, but that didn’t materialize in the first moto at Hangtown.

4. The Bike Factor:

It’s early days in this championship and that means many riders are experimenting with bikes. Honda has gone in a different direction compared to when it first ran this new 2025 450 late last year, and they’re still chasing the fine line between too soft and too stiff. Jett said it was too stiff for moto 1 and we did see that bike hopping around a lot when he tried to go fast. Too much side-to-side, said Jett. Adam Cianciarulo backed this up on Twitter saying:

5. It’s Tomac Town:

Hangtown is the site of some of Tomac’s most epic rides, and when he was asked by NBC Sports’ Haley Shanley why, he gave a real answer: he’s good on the hills! Eli has actual elevation change on his home track, which, come to think of it, is something the Florida-based riders do not. He is really good on this track.

6. It Was Hot:

“In the first moto, I missed a shift off the start, so I didn’t get the greatest jump, but I made it back to third and kind of rode it in from there to save energy for the second moto,” explained Jett in a Honda PR. With a 100 degree day, maybe stretching to make a battle at the front wasn’t worth it? Jett really rode a smart race today, and his maturity on the track is something that I really respect. AP and Eli were shredding the first moto, and for Jett to have the discipline and not burn himself down trying to catch them is not something that’s easy for a winner to do. Obviously, he saved enough in the tank to be able to do whatever he needed to do in the second moto; he executed perfectly and is leaving with a bigger points lead.

7. All of the Things:

Isn’t this what makes racing great? The answers above could be all right, all wrong, or there could be some combination of them all. Unanswered questions and lots of variables. Do you know Tomac is racing in his home state this weekend?