Could there be a surprising championship challenger outside of these three? Sure. Cooper Webb has now entered the chat as a late entry. Aaron Plessinger has shown flashes of brilliance this year and is a former 250 champ in his own right. Adam Cianciarulo was the runner-up in this championship back in 2020 and has said his arm issues are often caused by supercross whoops. He won’t have to deal with those in motocross. These three riders have skill. Still, I have to be honest and say that I just don’t see it happening for this crew without injury. The Sexton/J. Lawrence/Ferrandis group, in my scenario, seem too ready, too prepared. They are peaking at the right time and have their entire focus on this series. They aren’t battling injury; they aren’t unsure about their plans. They are here to win and win I think they will.

Dirty Little Secrets

The track at Pala is not an agreeable one. The sandy yet slippery surface wreaks havoc on rider approach. Riders can’t rely on smooth throttle application and rolling momentum because many sections are simply too deep. So you’ve got to get hard on the gas, but if you get too aggressive, you’ll pay a big price as the base hardens up. Did I mention the ruts? That’s right, the ample water applied Friday night and Saturday morning leads to heavy ruts that are almost like a cruel joke when added to the already tricky conditions. It’s a track that requires many skill sets and one that leaves many scratching their heads in confusion.

The upside for this particular rendition is that the weather will be absolutely phenomenal. With a high in the low 70s, track crews will be able to maintain moisture and keep the track at its best. It won’t harden as much as the September event does and riders won’t suffer through 100+ degree temperatures. Everything about Saturday will be improved simply due to the weather being agreeable.

After watching both events last year and how the riders attacked this course, there seemed to be a common denominator. Those that excelled stood around nearly the entire track. They allowed the motorcycle to work beneath them and avoid loading the suspension deep into the stroke. They kept the bike light and free, reacting to the ever-changing traction levels. They were riding a gear taller than maybe they wanted to but that change lowered wheel spin and further lightened the load on suspension. This is not a track like Spring Creek MX Park where riders can unleash aggression. Those riders that take what the track is giving them without overstaying their welcome seem to do well here. Case in point, Jett Lawrence has never lost at this facility. Chase Sexton got his first win here and also won the opener last season. Both of those riders utilize a stand more than they sit and are very deft with throttle control. Coincidence? Unlikely.

Who’s Hot

Chase Sexton is on an emotional high of his first ever Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship. We have seen many in this spot have a bit of metaphorical hangover. Can he find his best form at round one?

Aaron Plessinger snagged a podium at the finale and just like anyone with eyeballs, sees the opportunity this summer.

Adam Cianciarulo is hoping that the move outside alleviates his arm troubles. He was your runner up in this championship back in 2020.

Dylan Ferrandis is a questionable pick for this list because he hasn’t raced in months. Still, any honest look at the entry list will have you putting him on the podium early and often.

Jett Lawrence will make his 450 debut this weekend (outside of the Monster Energy FIM Motocross of Nations) and I think he impresses.

Cooper Webb announced he will return to the Pro Motocross Championship and while he hasn’t ridden much, he is a big addition.

Hunter Lawrence is having the best season of his life and is poised to continue that excellence as the former champion, his brother, vacates the 250 area.

Justin Cooper is prepared and ready for the series. He entered last year anything but ready, so expect huge improvements compared to 2022.

RJ Hampshire had his most consistent, well-rounded supercross season to date and has a lot of confidence entering summer.

Privateers have an incredible opportunity in the 450 class this summer. The door is wide open, especially early.