Breakdown Oakland

The second round of the 2022 Monster Energy AMA Supercross season has come and gone. Both classes provided several talking points from passes, crashes, winners to losers. As such, we fired off some questions to 16-year professional racer Jason Thomas to get his take on all things Oakland.

What did you see with the Ryan Breece/Adam Enticknap situation in the LCQ?

Gotta love that LCQ drama! Breece seemed to enter some sort of alternate dimension once Seven-Deuce-Deuce instigated contact. I think he took the proverbial gloves off and then decided to attempt to take Enticknap’s head off as an encore. As far as the actual pass goes, it wasn’t anything that we haven’t seen before. Enticknap went outside to set up for a rhythm section and Breece lunged through the open door. The dramatic part was that Enticknap was dragged off his bike in spectacular fashion. Had he just fallen over at the point of contact, I don’t think it would have been so ballyhoo’d. Was it overly aggressive? Yes, but welcome to the world of last chance qualifiers. If anyone was looking for karma to intervene, they didn’t have to wait long as Breece wildly ejected himself into a berm about two laps later.

How does a rider turn it around so quickly like Aaron Plessinger did?

This is really difficult to generically define. In this specific instance, I blame it on A1. With so much change in AP7’s program, I just think he had a hard time putting his best foot forward. Remember, he switched from Monster Energy Yamaha to Red Bull KTM, switched to Aldon Baker’s training program, and moved his family to Clermont, Florida. That’s a lot of change for one off-season. It didn’t seem to click at any point for Anaheim. I think this past week gave him a chance to take a deep breath, regroup, and simply ride the way he knows how to. He was also able to reflect on the way a new motorcycle reacted to a race environment and make adjustments mid-week. He looked like himself on Saturday instead of the stranger we saw riding his bike at round one.

Are you concerned with the Eli Tomac and Dylan Ferrandis starts?

Yes, but I am not sure if this is a new development or just more of the same? Neither of these riders has ever shown consistency in their starting prowess. They have made a habit of methodically working through the pack. The trouble comes in when the field is this healthy and this competitive. A bad start creates a monumental task. Further, the pace for the first half of the race is so static throughout the field that they are unable to make quick moves and negate the poor start. They are then forced to put in heroic laps down the stretch if they hope for a podium finish (or even top five). I am beginning to wonder if this is a rider issue or a motorcycle tendency to blame. It could very likely be a combination of both. Regardless, it could be the number one most critical hurdle facing both riders and their success.

Several riders—like Tomac and Ferrandis—were putting on a charge and then it all stalled out. Not much action late in the race, although Ferrandis did close up on Malcom Stewart. That’s it. Is this the track breaking down so much no one could charge? Was it fatigue? Everyone being worried about being safe early in the season?

It’s a combination of the track becoming more difficult to traverse as well as fatigue setting in. Some riders are better when the track is perfect (Ken Roczen, Adam Cianciarulo) while other riders shine when the track starts to deteriorate (Cooper Webb, Ferrandis, Tomac). The key is to really capitalize on that strength when opportunity arises. Roczen did exactly that at Anaheim 1, laying waste to the field early in the race (sans Chase Sexton). Conversely, Webb and Tomac have made dramatic late race moves throughout their career. Highlight your attributes and exploit them.

Explain the experience of riding that long whoop section with the deep V rut.

While it may be more inconsistent, the likelihood of a big crash or incident is lower. Riders like Webb are waiting for that line to develop to offset any perceived advantage that riders like Roczen or Mookie may have. The key is to find a rhythm that can be executed lap after lap. Watch riders on the parade lap as they stop and look closely at the potential line developing. Their internal voice is saying, “Okay, I can go wheel tap for the first three, triple, then try to quad out.” Having a plan is very important as some riders waste several laps trying to figure it out mid-race. As soon as the blitzing line loses its effectiveness, that plan needs to be immediately deployed. Webb is a master of this.

Anyone got anything for Christian Craig or is this a domination run?

I think he is going to run away with this thing. Hunter Lawrence is doing a great job of making that difficult by keeping it to an eight-point advantage, but I simply think Craig is the fastest rider in this class. I had Jett Lawrence, Colt Nichols, and Christian Craig as the clear cut favorites going into Anaheim. With Craig as the only member of that trio left, it’s only logical that I have him making this a one man show. If he can avoid a series-changing mistake, look for the beatings to continue until morale improves.

Is it time to consider Jason Anderson a title favorite?

I don’t have him as a “favorite”, but I think he should certainly be considered relevant when talking titles. I still have Webb as my favorite and Tomac finishing second, but Anderson has certainly regained his best form. If he can consistently start inside the top 5, maybe he changes that narrative. I think he will have a few bad races along the way that may put a second title out of reach, but he definitely looks poised to win a few, too. The more riders in the title conversation, the better. A third winner in San Diego would do nicely for that dynamic.