Team Netherlands

France is a contender because of its overall annual excellence at this event, but if you’re going on a pure talent basis, Netherlands and Australia have got the goods. Netherlands packs Jeffrey Herlings and the new MX2 World Champion Kay de Wolf. Yes, that's big. Herlings, as you might now, has had a tough time making it to the end of seasons healthy, but he's here and ready this year. The third man is Glenn Coldenhoff, who everyone remembers as a MXoN hero, but those super rides happened back in 2018 and 2019, actually. Coldenhoff was decent this year in MXGP riding a (get ready, USA fans) Fantic. It could help that he’s back to being the Open guy now that Herlings can race the MXGP class, so Glenn gets a moto against 250s and every else’s second-best 450 guy. Maybe he holds his own and Herlings and de Wolf do what they’re capable of, and this team wins. Gotta avoid weirdo luck, though, which has struck this team far too many times through the years. They seem to lose in heartbreaking fashion, like by one point, or because of something crazy happening. Again, in a one-day race, anything can happen.

Team Australia

First, credit where it’s due. Team USA is often struggling to get its best riders and/or teams to participate in this event, consistently. Team Australia is anchored by two U.S.-based riders whose participation is never in doubt for MXoN, with the Lawrence brothers. Also, Team Honda HRC from the U.S. gives full support. They even handed a factory CRF250R over to the third man on the team Kyle Webster.

We all know what we’re getting from Hunter and Jett. They’re world class. Webster is the 450 motocross champion in Australia and showed Americans some speed real quick when he holeshot a moto at RedBud. Can he adjust to the 250? He’s got to be feeling some pressure because expectations are so high for a team packing both Lawrences on 450s. Also, will Jett and Hunter’s incredible starting prowess on the AMA circuit carry over? The ceiling for this team is very, very high. Australia has never won this event, by the way.

Team USA

Look, we’d love to pump up America fans and say any Team USA packing star power is the favorite to win, but those days are done. Team USA definitely can win, but it will not be easy like it seemed during those glorious win streaks. Still, we can’t give enough credit to Cooper Webb, Eli Tomac, and Monster Energy Yamaha Star Racing for keeping the team in contender status in the first place. When Team USA starts to slide sideways, as it often does, it results in talk of a “B team” roster. Chance Hymas and Chase Sexton went out with injury, and yet somehow this team didn’t really lose much strength, if any! It would have been so easy for everyone to pack up and say “see you next year” especially with the race (ahem, likely) returning to American soil next year. It’s happened like that before. But not this time!

Cooper Webb, Eli Tomac and Aaron Plessinger is definitely an A Team. If they’re not the best team, they’re certainly close enough to where the rando luck of a one-day race puts a victory in play. You just have to show up. Thanks for Webb, Tomac and their team for doing that when they didn’t have to.

Now, the questions. Webb is jumping down to a 250. Kudos, as he’s the first American 450 star to do that in decades. There will probably be hand wringing about adjusting to the bike but that’s probably not that big of a deal. Yes, Ken Roczen’s result when he tried a 250 a month ago at Ironman Raceway wasn’t good, but he was plenty fast. He just had physical issues as the day went on. He was second-fastest in qualifying that day. The bigger problem for Webb just might be the overall lack of motocross time. He missed all of outdoors in 2022, half of it in 2023 and just about all of it in 2024. It’s been a long time since he’s logged two solid race-day motos on a Yamaha of any kind, 250 or 450. We know Coop is putting in the work these last two weeks and he’s a hero for trying this. He’s also a gamer and has massive unfinished business at this race. Can he do it?

Tomac showed at Ironman and SMX that he’s still darned good. Is he at the moto-winning level against this super-stacked MXGP field? When he holeshot the first moto at RedBud in 2022 it basically set the tone for the whole event, and Team USA romped. Good starts are absolutely paramount here.

Poor Plessinger. Everyone remembers his terrible second moto last year where he finished 18^th. But he also logged a fifth in his first moto. He said by the final moto the team was way out of contention and mentally, he was done. He told me he wasn’t happy with his bike at this race last year, but they figured out why and it should be better this year. As the second 450 guy behind Tomac, he’s good. Like Coldenhoff above, there’s a big difference when you get to race a moto against 250s and everyone else’s second-best 450 guy. 

Team USA has a shot if some things break the right way. They must get starts. And hopefully, for them, it’s not a full-on mud race.

Team Spain

The struggle in this race is so many teams pack two really good riders but the third is a bit of a wildcard. You could say that about Coldenhoff on Netherlands, or Webb and Webster racing 250s. Spain is in a really tough spot, with now two-time MXGP World Champion Jorge Prado and capable factory Honda MXGP rider Rubin Fernandez. This team has high-end talent but needs MX2 rider Oriol Oliver, ranked 12^th in this year’s MX2 standings, to come through. The sneaky secret of this race is that the MX2 rider can really impact the proceedings with a hero ride or two. Spain can’t count on that but if Prado and Fernandez, two good starters, run well, and Oliver has one decent ride, the podium, at least, is in play.

Team Germany

Much like Spain here, with Ken Roczen and third-ranked MX2 racer Simon Laengenfelder providing plenty of punch. It’s the third slot that’s always been the problem for Germany. Back in the day the team had Roczen and Max Nagl crushing it and one time a guy named Marcus Schiffer came through with a seventh, and that was enough to get the team the win in 2012. So, who is the third guy behind Roczen and Laengenfelder this year? It’s Nagl! Yup, he’s still going at 37 years old and this is his 18th year racing the event. Last year he went 11-14 in his motos at this race, which isn’t bad. The problem is the 2024 Roczen (since breaking his leg in supercross) hasn’t been quite as good as the 2023 Roczen, who went 2-3 in his MXoN motos. But Lagenfelder is darned good on the 250. We’ll see.

The Home Team

Great Britain might have a moment to get these fans hyped. The last time this race took place at Matterly Basin, Max Anstie won both of his motos overall! He’s back but now as a 250 guy. A super day for your 250 guy has a massive boost on a team’s result. Tommy Searle is still going (he was on the 2006 team!). Then there’s Conrad Mewse. There’s hype here because the dude was very, very fast in the British Championships this year. Like challenging-Jeffrey-Herlings-fast. Can he deliver in this crazy environment? And what if it rains?

Other Guys

Belgium is always good at this event but its young core of the Coenen brothers and Liam Everts got wiped out with injury. Everts and Sacha Coened are out, Lucas Coenen jumped back into the MX2 spot and Jago Geerts and Brent Van Donnick are the replacements. A good team but probably not enough for glory…unless Lucas Coenen absolutely crushes it on the 250. We can't stress enough how big two good 250 scores have on the points in this event. This could be his breakout party right here. Remember that name Coenen, America.

Italy is becoming a bit of a light version of Team France in that no matter who is on the team it tends to out perform the expectations on paper. The team won the event in 2021 (a magical day of Tony Cairoli winning on home soil) and finished third last year. The Guadagnini, Adamo, Bonacorsi lineup isn’t quite world-beating, as besides Adamo (last year’s MX2 World Champ) they might not have moto-winning speed against this field. But watch them somehow do well anyway even though it shouldn’t make any sense.

Tim Gajser is as an MXGP all-timer but being from the small nation of Slovenia means MXoN team success is a long shot. With Jan Pancar also on this team (13^th in this year’s MXGP series) they should be good enough to make it through Saturday qualifying and into the 20-team motos no problem. Then Tim can do his thing. Which leads us to…