Look, Chase Sexton won again! Also, Chase Sexton lost again! It’s the perfect foil. The perfect world for everyone to throw in more Chase Sexton theories, especially under the microscope that will be the winner-takes-the-title SuperMotocross World Championship (SMX) this weekend. If Chase wins the race, he wins the title. If Jett Lawrence or Hunter Lawrence win, they take the title.
The bench racing will reach a fever pitch. If it hasn’t already.
Just as a sampling, here are some Chase Sexton “theories” that float out in the ether, all the time, and all will be tuned to another level now that he went 4-1 over the weekend in Texas.
It’s in his head
The easiest part of sports to report is the mental side, because we all have brains and experience with how they work (by the way, your experience may vary). Understanding the nuances of physical athletic performance, bike setup, line choice, race strategy and such is much more complicated. We don’t really ever find out all of those details. But we all think we know what confidence is, or what it looks like.
One theory with Chase Sexton is that he simply can’t operate at his best if Jett Lawrence is on the track at the same time, or, worse yet, if they’re in a battle. Our own Jason Thomas has said this for quite some time, including last week.
The evidence says Sexton crushed the AMA Pro Motocross Championship for six rounds and then Jett returned for the first SMX race, and Sexton went back to struggling and having bike issues. That’s mental, right? But how you do explain Texas? Was that first moto mental? How could he have solved a mental block an hour later for moto two?
It’s the bike
Sexton didn’t exactly not blame his old Honda for his crashes in the past. Then he made a big switch to KTM and here came even more bike-related talk all throughout Monster Energy AMA Supercross.
He said things were much better in Pro Motocross, which the results indicate. Or was that just because Jett Lawrence was only fully healthy for one race in that series? At the first SMX Playoff round in North Carolina, Jett was back, and Chase was back to not being happy with the bike. But, also, Sexton has consistently said his bike was much better outdoors than in supercross. SMX in Concord re-introduced more supercross-type conditions.
You can go deeper. Chase said he was “terrible” in flat turns at zMAX Dragway. Some say that was because, when he was closing on Lawrence, that he would get too excited, want it too badly, and light up the rear tire. Sexton, though, says he’s been having traction problems in supercross and never really got the rear end of the bike where he wanted it. Back at the Pro Motocross opener at Fox Raceway, James Stewart explained he thought Sexton’s bike wouldn’t drive out of the corners like Lawrence’s, as Sexton’s bike had a “dead” look to it (slower rebound) that helps him go fast on downhills. But, when coming out of corners and trying to build acceleration, slower rebound doesn’t force the rear tire into the ground the way that Lawrence’s bike, which has some of the fastest rebound on the track, does.
Sexton and the team made some changes after the Pro Motocross opener, and his Hangtown ride was all-time.
During the week between SMX rounds one and two, Sexton and the team did more testing. They continued to make swings at it during practice and qualifying in Texas. It seemed better. Sexton didn’t complain about the bike for the motos.
“I’ve just been struggling with my shock a little bit with traction in general and if you don't have traction on a track like that, it's very difficult to ride,” Sexton explained. “Honestly, every session I was out there we changed something and finally, from practice to the races, we did a pretty good change, and I think it's something that we could use for next year even. At least I hope so. That's kind of the game plan.”
Peacock/NBC’s Will Christien reported that Chase didn’t even make bike changes between motos in Texas. He rode well and felt good in moto one. He just needed a better start. Speaking of which…
It's the Starts
Everyone might be overthinking this. Sexton has not gotten good starts on the KTM, which is a killer in supercross and SMX. It doesn’t matter as much in Pro Motocross where there’s more room and more time. Sexton’s fitness allows him to roll past others later in the race.
There are only two good starts we can think of recently for Sexton. At Unadilla’s second moto, the gate was held for way too long, a bunch of riders had issues with the timing, and Sexton got the holeshot. It led to his most dominant ride of the summer. In the second moto at Texas Motor Speedway, Ken Roczen flinched, which threw off the timing of those around him. Dylan Ferrandis, who has struggled with starts his whole career, got the holeshot. Sexton was second and then took the lead and checked out. It was the most dominant win of the four SMX motos so far.
That’s two races where the start turned weird, and Sexton took advantage. What he has not shown he can do, consistently, is holeshot when everything is normal. Assuming the gate isn’t held too long this weekend, and no one flinches early, Sexton will have to finally figure out a way to get the jump on his competitors. After the first SMX Playoff round, Red Bull KTM crew chief Carlos Rivera spoke with TV reporter Will Christien after the race as a part of the SMX Insider Post-Race show and said Sexton needs better stars.
“I definitely think we need to get better starts,” Rivera said on where they could improve. “I mean, these guys are really good, not taking [away] any credit, they are strong on the starts, and he has to be better at the starts.”
Namely the Lawrences have been lights out on starts with their Hondas. Note that in the moto without the weird start in Texas, they started 1-2.
Is it the bike or is it mental? Or is he mentally beaten and just blaming the bike? On it goes. It might not be that complicated. It might just be about the starts. But where’s the fun when theories are so simple? Expect a lot more talk about Chase Sexton, win or lose this weekend.