We are three rounds into the AMA Pro Motocross series here in the USA and Thunder Valley was our first, in my opinion, “real” motocross track. Pala is moon dirt, it’s a mostly manmade track and it’s ehhhh, and Hangtown this year was unlike other years where no one liked it. It was one-lined and it’s also California, which is its own unique thing.
This weekend it was rut city (was it rutcross? I’m not sure, maybe- maybe not) and that deep dirt with real braking bumps. At times the best riders out there were going 5MPH trying to not fall. We’re coming up to High Point, Red Bud, Southwick, and Millville, and temperatures will be hotter and we’re going to see the tough thrive in the next few weeks. Remember, we lost a motocross national this year in favor of the SMX thing so we’re three rounds down, eight to go here.
Here are some things I think, and I know, through the three rounds.
I KNOW Jett Lawrence is going to win the 450MX title.
I mean, duh. The Aussie kid has been on fire in his debut season on the 450 and has easily won five out of his first six motos. Chase Sexton pushed him hard at Pala in the second moto, but other than that, it’s been shades of Ricky Carmichael and James Stewart in their (whispers) perfect seasons. Unlike those guys though, Jett’s riding style is one where he doesn’t look like he’s pushing it all that hard. Like, he’s got another gear. Anyway, with Sexton out, Lawrence is going to cruise to this title and it’ll be his fifth in a row. Remarkable stuff.
I THINK the odds favor Jett Lawrence going undefeated.
I live in Vegas, right? This city loves its gambling, so to me, the odds that Jett is going to win the remaining 16 motos are probably somewhere in the -110 range, which means it’s slightly more likely than not that Lawrence wins every moto. I mean, Chase Sexton will be back, we’re pretty sure on this, and he can beat the Jett but not right away, not after missing this much time. So now we’re up to, say, Millville, when Sexton’s 100 percent ready and that leaves only four races to go. At that point, The Jett will be aiming to stay undefeated, and the battle will be on. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but I think it’s looking favorable at this point.
I THINK Aaron Plessinger is the second-best rider in the 450MX class right now.
I know AP just got his first podium of the year at Colorado, but he’s also crashed a bunch in the other motos. Heck, he crashed with Dylan Ferrandis in moto one this weekend! I think there’s a case to be made his finishes this year should be 3-3-2-2-2-2, but of course, they’re not. He mentioned on the PulpMX Show that after Lakewood a ten-dollar bill just flew through the air and landed at his feet with no one around. And to AP, this was a sign that his luck is about to change. But to me, he’s had the ability (when he stays on the bike) to catch and pass everyone else in the class. I’m gonna even go out on a limb here and say that when Sexton comes back, he’ll battle with the 23 at first.
I KNOW that Ty Masterpool is for real.
After missing the first round while in 250’s, Ty Masterpool jumped into the 450MX class and this weekend, just missed a podium in moto two! He’s eighth in the points after missing the opener. He was down in the first turn in Colorado and came from dead last to fifth in moto one. He’s a very talented guy who can’t seem to fit in with a bunch of different teams, but he and his dad have their ways of doing things and it’s working. The charge from dead last this weekend, and the charge from outside the top ten last weekend tell me he’s for real and will be very good all season long. Of course, that’s if he keeps showing up because with Masterpool, you’re not always sure what’s going on.
I THINK Dylan Ferrandis will get better.
The 2021 450MX champion admitted that coming into the opener he wasn’t 100 percent and that he and his bike will get better. Well, we’re three rounds in and I’d say that maybe the first round has been his best one yet? Crashes this week hindered him but he got up behind Plessinger and couldn’t keep pace in moto one. Moto two he took a while to get going after another fall. I think he’ll get to a better spot but I’m not 100 percent certain.
I KNOW I love the Privateer Islanders getting some glory.
Look, we know we only have five factory riders right now in the 450MX class (or more depending on what you want to call the HEP Suzuki guys, which even the team owner, Dustin Pipes, told me he doesn’t know what in the hell he is) so the privateers are crushing it and I, for one, couldn’t be happier. Masterpool, Grant Harlan, the Wild Cat guys, Jerry Robin, they're all absolutely getting it while the getting’s good. All these points go toward the SMX playoffs that pay really well, and if you’re in the top twenty, you’re automatically seeded in. ITS ABOUT TIME THE TIDES TURN FOR THE PRIVATEERS!!!!!
I KNOW Hunter Lawrence is 3-0 this season.
We talked about this on our review podcast, Hunter Lawrence is 3-0 this season like his brother but yet, maybe we’re not giving him enough credit? I think there’s a point here also, like, he’s got a 16-point lead (pretty good), he’s won three motos (really good) and he’s won every OA (very good), but it still feels like, to me, that the title is still up for grabs? Maybe not. Hunter’s won every second moto so far and when he’s gotten crappy starts in the first motos, he’s grinded his way to podiums. It’s been an impressive start and one that maybe we should be more hyped on.
I THINK Justin Cooper showed me something at Lakewood.
Justin Cooper’s only got four 250MX wins to his credit and over 30 podiums. And he’s been the fastest qualifier like, 146 times (math might be off a bit but you get the point). To be that fast and have that many podiums but only have four wins is weird. He’s definitely been, in the past, a rider who's ridden better when he’s gotten the start. Mike LaRocco, he’s not. So, this weekend when he went over the bars (that was weird) at the end of the first lap while leading and didn’t move up through the pack that quickly, well that was sort of expected. But then Cooper, who had front brake issues, fixed the lever and started clicking off laps and moving up. It was a great ride and most of his passes came late.
I KNOW RJ Hampshire has not figured “it” out yet.
RJ winning this 250MX title would be an awesome story for sure and after that seasoning-opening moto win, we had him on the PulpMX Show and yeah, I have to admit, I thought maybe it had come together for him. Speed and fitness are two things you have to have to win championships and he’s got that. It’s the other “stuff” he’s never figured out and this weekend, he crashed in both motos and had to really ride hard to finish 8-7. He just never gives up and he’s exciting to watch. He’s also 43 points down after three races with an average first lap position of 16.5. Welcome to the world of RJ Hampshire.
I KNOW Haiden Deegan can’t continue to ride like he did in the first moto at Thunder Valley.
Deegan won a moto at Hangtown last week. It was a great ride and signified his arrival as a top-level guy outdoors to me. I thought 2024 would be a year for him to win races and challenge for a title but oops, it’s here now! So, when I saw him in the first moto with his head on a swivel, cross-jumping and moving around in front of Hunter Lawrence, I wasn’t a fan. Hunter set him up nicely also to get by and pull away. Not sure what Haiden was doing there, it was a bit like that Detroit SX heat race. He appears to lose his rational thought from time to time. What I do KNOW though, is if he keeps riding like that, one of these guys like Lawrence or Hampshire will just clean him out. There’s fighting for your position on the last lap and then there’s what he was doing. Hopefully his dad or someone will just pull him aside and point out that’s a tactic that’s not going to work out in his favor.
I THINK Levi Kitchen is “fixed.”
The Kitch finished third overall at Lakewood, a track that he won a moto on last year and I think he’s on the way to better things. The first two rounds weren’t what he wanted. It wasn’t “Jeremy Martin” level of results, but it was two top tens. Kitch' told me he gained some weight this off-season but didn’t want to change his settings until this past weekend and it made a difference. Also, as he pointed out on the PulpMX Show, he had never gone through the short transition time from SX to MX as he was hurt before. So, he’s got some new settings, he’s getting into the MX state of mind and onward and upward for the Chef. Or Kitch'.
Thanks for checking out OBS, sorry for the shortness but I had a short time to turn this around. After all, I had to get ready for an early start to watch the Vegas Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup in person. Yay for them, maybe next year it’ll come together for The Leafs. Email me at matthes@racerxonline.com if you want to chat about this or anything else.
