We’ve all got a season or two of supercross we remember as being the benchmark of good racing. Maybe you liked 2009—James Stewart launcing a season-long comeback against Chad Reed’s consistency. Maybe you liked 2006, when Ricky Carmichael and Reed came into Vegas tied for the lead, with Stewart just five points back. Maybe you liked 1990’s rookies versus veterans tussle, the nail-biting ’92 season, or all of those mid-eighties fights between the legends.
Whatever the reasoning, holding a season in awe is usually a result of tight situations and unpredictability. Well, so far 2019 has all of that and more with three winners in four rounds (two of them being first-timers), and a top four separated by just four points. Four riders separated by four points!
That’s astonishing, and the numbers back it up. We went back to the beginning of the sport and couldn’t find a tighter points race between four riders after four rounds.
In related news, by digging into this data, we can also determine some probability of the points leader at round four winning the title. Cooper Webb leads now, and the good news for him is that the leader after round four has won the last five 450SX Titles. In history, the points leader after round 4 has won 30 of 44 titles, which is 68 percent.
However, remember Cooper also has the smallest lead ever after four races. This is truly a wide-open series right now!
Check out the points tabulations after round four throughout supercross history. Hat tip to @sxresearchdept for helping us with some archive stats.
The bolded name went on to win the championship that season.
2019 Round 4 (Oakland)
Cooper Webb 83
Ken Roczen 81
Eli Tomac 80
2018 Round 4 (Glendale)
Ken Roczen 77
Weston Peick 71
2017 Round 4 (Glendale)
Ryan Dungey 89
Eli Tomac 69 (tied for third)
Cole Seely 69
2016 Round 4 (Oakland)
Ryan Dungey 97
Jason Anderson 75 (tied for second)
Chad Reed 75
Ken Roczen 73
2015 (Oakland)
Ryan Dungey 82
Ken Roczen 78
Trey Canard 68
Eli Tomac 64
2014 (Oakland)
Chad Reed 77
Ken Roczen 75 (tied for third)
Ryan Dungey 75
2013 (Oakland)
Trey Canard 78
Ryan Dungey 68
2012 (Oakland)
Chad Reed 85 (Tied)
Ryan Dungey 85
2011 (Oakland)
Ryan Dungey 78
Trey Canard 71
2010 (San Francisco)
Ryan Dungey 90
Josh Hill 79
Andrew Short 68
2009 (Houston)
Chad Reed 86
James Stewart 77 (tied for second)
Josh Grant 77
Andrew Short 71
2008 (San Francisco)
Chad Reed 97
Tim Ferry 57
Mike Alessi 54
2007 (San Francisco)
Chad Reed 82
Tim Ferry 70
Ricky Carmichael 69 (retired racer on farewell tour—didn’t race round three)
2006 (San Francisco)
Chad Reed 82
Nick Wey 61
2005 (San Francisco)
Chad Reed 69
Mike LaRocco 66
2004 San Diego
Chad Reed 97
Mike LaRocco 72
2003 (San Francisco)
Chad Reed 84
Tim Ferry 74
Ezra Lusk 71
2002 (Phoenix)
Mike LaRocco 85
2001 (Phoenix)
Ricky Carmichael 92 (Tied)
Mike LaRocco 78
Ezra Lusk 67
2000 (Phoenix)
Mike LaRocco 82
1999 (Seattle)
Mike LaRocco 82
Ezra Lusk 65
1998 (Seattle)
Ezra Lusk 77
Larry Ward 53
1997 (Seattle)
Doug Henry 87
Larry Ward 74
Jeff Emig 65
1996 (Seattle)
Jeremy McGrath 100
Ryan Hughes 59
Jeff Emig 51
Ezra Lusk 40
1995 (Seattle)
Jeremy McGrath 100
Larry Ward 82
Jeff Emig 62
1994 (San Diego)
Jeremy McGrath 100
Jeff Emig 61
Mike LaRocco 58
1993 (Seattle)
Jeff Stanton 74
1992 (Seattle)
Jeff Statnton 80
Jean-Michel Bayle 77
Guy Cooper 65
1991 (Seattle)
Jean-Michel Bayle 88
Jeff Stanton 84
1990 (Seattle)
Larry Ward 74
Jeff Stanton 70
Mike LaRocco 59
1989 (San Diego)
Rick Johnson 100
Jeff Stanton 80
Guy Cooper 72
Ron Tichenor 53
1988 (Daytona)
Rick Johnson 92
Jeff Ward 89
Ron Lechien 80
Broc Glover 57
1987 (Miami)
Rick Johnson 92
Jeff Ward 89
Ron Lechien 80
Broc Glover 57
1986 (Seattle 1)
Rick Johnson 89
David Bailey 79
Jeff Ward 72
Johnny O’Mara 69
1985 (Seattle 2)
Broc Glover Leader
Rick Johnson -12
Johnny O’Mara
The series used a two-moto format in 1985.
1984 (Atlanta)
Jeff Ward 168
Johnny O’Mara 165
Rick Johnson 156
Mark Barnett 135
1983 (Atlanta)
Bob Hannah 118
David Bailey 107
Mark Barnett 101
Jeff Ward 76
1982 (Atlanta)
Bob Hannah 84
Johnny O’Mara 78
1981 (Atlanta)
Mark Barnett 101
Mike Bell 88
1980 (Atlanta)
Mike Bell 86
Chuck Sun 82
Jim Gibson 69
1979 (Atlanta)
Bob Hannah 98
Jim Weinert 70
1978 (Houston 1)
Marty Tripes 130
Bob Hannah 111
Steve Wise 67
1977 (Houston 2)
Bob Hannah 95
Jim Pomeroy 91
1976 (Pontiac)
Jim Weinert 288
Kent Howerton 274
Jimmy Ellis 221
1975 (LA) – SERIES ONLY HAD 4 ROUNDS
Jimmy Ellis 450
Marty Smith 248
Rich Eierstedt 228
Kent Howerton 210
1974 – SERIES ONLY HAD 3 ROUNDS
N/A
