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450 Words: One Mistake Away

450 Words: One Mistake Away

March 24, 2015, 5:00pm
Jason Weigandt Jason WeigandtEditorial Director
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Justin Bogle wasn’t on the championship radar at the start of last year’s 250SX East Region chase, because he was barely starting at all. He was so busted up in the pre-season that his GEICO Honda team went out and hired Blake Wharton as a replacement rider. Somehow Bogle clawed his way back by the opener and garnered a solid fifth. Ahead of that, the Monster Energy/Pro Circuit Kawasaki team dominated the night with a podium sweep, and then did it again at the third round. Before long, we were writing stories about the 250 East campaign being the best ever for the mighty Pro Circuit squad.

Two things then happened at the same time: Bogle got stronger, and the Pro Circuit team started faltering with injuries. Bogle’s finishes got better, his confidence grew, and all the momentum piled into a snowball until he scored his first career victory at race six in Toronto. By then, Blake Baggett and Adam Cianciarulo were exiting the title fight, and only Martin Davalos stood between Bogle and a most unlikely championship. A hard crash while testing then knocked Davalos out of the series. That most unlikely scenario had become real.

It took five races for Bogle to get his first win this year, and he’s again getting stronger. Those 2014 injuries were so bad that he needed some additional work during the off-season, and while he has maintained a hard veneer and hasn’t let on, we don’t think he was 100 percent when the season kicked off in Arlington. He seemed much stronger in Detroit, and while series leader Marvin Musquin didn’t have as good a start as Bogle, it’s clear that Bogle was the benefactor of more than just a holeshot—he was just riding really well, too.

Bogle got his #1 plate under some unusual circumstances, proving that a championship isn't over until the end. 
Bogle got his #1 plate under some unusual circumstances, proving that a championship isn't over until the end.  Photo: Cudby

But Musquin already has a 13-point lead with just two races remaining (the Las Vegas finale has reverted to its old East/West Shootout-only format, and does not pay points). It seems too late for Bogle to make a run now, just as it did last year until the Pro Circuit dominos fell. Bogle has just one hurdle to clear, in Musquin, since Jeremy Martin has already fallen far back thanks to a DNQ last weekend in Indy.

Musquin is solid, smart, smooth, and experienced. He’s not a likely candidate to throw away a 13-point lead with two races remaining. Bogle is at least in position to capitalize if something crazy happens. Last year, Bogle capitalized after Davalos crashed out due to a freak bike problem. Anything can happen.          

Right after Bogle scored his Detroit breakthrough, his GEICO Honda teammate Eli Tomac rolled to a 450SX win. Like many contenders, Tomac has been up and down this year, certainly not putting together anything that resembles a championship season. He has one big thing going for him, though: He’s been able to get back up safe after every big error. With an unfortunate crash now taking Trey Canard out of the championship, Tomac is third in points but likely to move into second soon. Injuries have already ended Ken Roczen and Justin Barcia’s hopes, Chad Reed got a black flag DQ and has had a general lack of consistency to end his bid, and an illness sapped Millsaps. Tomac takes the hits and keeps coming, and now he’s in the same position as Bogle: one huge mistake away from winning this whole thing.

Of course, Ryan Dungey is as unlikely as any rider in the history of this sport to falter. He holds a 77-point lead on Tomac with five races—125 total points—up for grabs. Until a rider is eliminated, every point could still count. Just last week, Tomac crashed on the second lap and got up in last place. He was lapped by Dungey, but stuck behind him for eight laps, and then went around him on the last lap to try to pick off other riders and claw for a few more points. When Dungey lapped Tomac on lap twelve, Tomac was in fourteenth. By the end of the race, he was eleventh. Three measly points, not even a top-ten finish. Sometimes every point doesn’t count, but you never know when it just might. It would take nothing short of a miracle for Tomac to win this title, but just getting into second in points at least improves the odds from impossible to improbable. Scenarios of the sort are highly unlikely, but they have happened before.

Tomac could follow Bogle's suit, and all it would take is one mistake. 
Tomac could follow Bogle's suit, and all it would take is one mistake.  Photo: Cudby

Only a few weeks ago, I was chatting with Autotrader.com/Toyota/JGR Yamaha team manager Jeremy Albrecht, and he brought up the 2012 season when James Stewart rode for the team. Stewart had won the Daytona supercross but then crashed out on the first lap of his heat race the next week in Indy—causing him to miss that race and the next in Toronto. He returned for Houston, now down 94 points to leader Ryan Villopoto with five races and 125 points up for grabs. The title was essentially gone, but J-Bone and company wanted him to keep racing just in case. Yes, the title was a long a shot as long shots come, and Stewart ended up crashing again in Houston, finishing twentieth, and parting ways with the team afterwards. Two weeks later, though, Villopoto fell, twisted his leg, and tore his ACL. RV scored 0 points at the final three races—the championship was more up for grabs than it seemed, and had Stewart put together strong rides at Houston and beyond, he could have been right there to capitalize.

The ultimate example came last year in the MX2 class in the FIM World Motocross Championship. Jeffrey Herlings had a basically insurmountable points lead, but it proved surmountable when he broke his femur, and Jordi Tixier used up every last inch of the series to make up ground and sneak away with the championship. Rare? Unlikely? Absolutely. And the math skews even further in this Monster Energy AMA Supercross, an FIM World Championship, since Dungey is at the helm and is perhaps the ultimate example of Mr. Consistency. Tomac, meanwhile, has been completely and totally inconsistent this year, but he’s at least still healthy, and likely to be second in points soon. That leaves him just one huge Dungey mistake away from putting together one of the most unlikely title drives ever. It’s unlikely to happen—but stranger things have happened, too. Just ask Justin Bogle.

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