By Aaron Hansel, Jason Weigandt, and Chase Stallo
Wire to Wire
Raise your hand if you saw Chad Reed’s win in Atlanta coming. If you put yours up, go ahead and lower it because you’re lying. Not that it’s really all that surprising—this is just what Reed does these days—but his performances as of late (one podium in seven races prior to Atlanta 1) didn’t indicate a victory was en route. About the only thing better than leading every single lap of one of the biggest races of the year would be winning back-to-back. Can Reed create the first-ever Atlanta sweep? –Aaron Hansel
The Constrictor
We know Ryan Dungey’s nickname is The Diesel, but after this season we might just have to start calling him The Boa Constrictor—with each passing race his grip on the points lead gets tighter, and one by one he’s leaving his competitors gasping for life. His commanding 25-point lead hasn’t come only from winning races either (although his two wins certainly don’t hurt). When guys like Ken Roczen and Eli Tomac have made themselves vulnerable with costly crashes, Dungey has intensified the squeeze with consistent podiums. Don’t be surprised if his lead gets bigger this Saturday, even if he doesn’t win the race. -Hansel
Recovery Time
Ken Roczen’s Oakland face-case and crash-filled day in Atlanta have cost him dearly in the points—after leading the championship by 12 points after three rounds he now sits third, 31 points back of Ryan Dungey. It’s almost hard to believe that he's the same racer who came out and destroyed A1 and A2, especially considering he doesn’t have a reputation for committing these kinds of expensive errors. Expect Roczen to have a much better night this time around. –Hansel
New Debut
We’re used to seeing rookie professionals take their first supercross steps in 250SX East—we just don’t expect to see it at around three. But that’s the case for GEICO Honda’s Jordon Smith, who broke his hand right before the Arlington opener. A few weeks out of surgery, he’ll give it a go this weekend. "With the injury, I'm definitely not 100 percent yet," Smith said in a team statement. "For sure, I'm using this round in Atlanta to just go out there to get experience. I don't really have any expectations now other than run as smooth of a race as possible while gaining some good experience to see where I stack up against the other guys." His fellow rookie teammate RJ Hampshire has had solid results but has also taken some lumps so far. We’ll see how Smith does. – Jason Weigandt
Serial Misfortune
Can Davi Millsaps catch a break? After blasting back onto the radar at the Monster Energy Cup, the Monster Energy Kawasaki rider has had terrible luck this season, and it continued in Atlanta when he hurt his back in practice and was later involved in a first-turn crash in his heat. Several weeks ago the thing to watch was Millsaps putting in a podium performance, but at this point we’re just crossing our fingers hoping he doesn’t fall victim to more of racing’s random misfortune. –Hansel
Anyone’s Guess
The action in the 250SX Class left more questions than it answered last week. Three different riders (Martin Davalos, Justin Bogle, and Jeremy Martin) led laps, while Marvin Musquin, who led every single lap in Dallas didn’t lead a single one in Atlanta. Martin, meanwhile, who finished off the podium in Dallas rode brilliantly to take the win! Any four of these riders could easily win, and it’s likely they all expect to do so. We’ll see who’s able to get it done tomorrow night at round two of the Atlanta double. -Hansel
Recovering
Justin Bogle made no excuses after giving up a late lead to Jeremy Martin, and then second to Marvin Musquin, last weekend. Bogle admitted he got tight, but said he would not use that as an excuse. “No excuses, I just kind of gave that one up,” he said. While it was a tough loss, Bogle is in a better position after two rounds than a year ago—when he went on to win the championship. In 2014, Bogle was 11 points down of then leader Adam Cianciarulo. Entering Atlanta 2, he trails Marvin Musquin by just 5 points. Bogle likes Atlanta—three straight podiums—and will look to cut into Musquin’s lead this weekend. – Chase Stallo
The Machine
Dating back to last year, Smartop/MotoConcepts’ Vince Friese has ten top-tens in eleven rounds. Furthermore, he has eighteen top-tens in the last twenty races—clocking an impressive 90 percent top-ten rate over the last two years plus. Friese’s reunion with MotoConcepts has been a resounding success thus far. Will it continue this weekend? – Stallo
More with Less
The term “privateer” has become unclear over the years. Matt Lemoine is not your back-of-the-truck privateer. He’s not factory, either. “I know what a Pro Circuit bike has; I know it’s a better bike than mine because they have unlimited resources,” he told Racer X recently. “But I like the team I’m on, and my bike is competitive.” Lemoine was thisclose to starting the season with back-to-back top-fives, before a late mistake in Atlanta pushed him to seventh. While it’s hard to categorize Matt Lemoine’s team situation this year, it’s clear he’s a podium threat going forward. – Stallo
The Dirt
Last week, the dirt in Atlanta was very dry, which is unusual. Jason Thomas said it was the “driest I have ever seen it.” This year features back-to-back rounds, which means the dirt has been sitting in the Georgia Dome for the past week. Also, the second trip features a very different layout. There’s an over/under bridge and a multitude of short straightaways with small rhythm sections, and the racing should be very tight. Let’s see who adjusts and who doesn’t. – Stallo
