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Doing the Math: What Carmichael Needs to Clinch his 10th Straight AMA Motocross Title

With the news that Team Yamaha's Chad Reed is out for the rest of the 2006 season with a bum shoulder, Makita Suzuki's Ricky Carmichael will probably clinch his 10th straight Toyota AMA Motocross Championship (in 10 seasons) this weekend at Tom Hurd's Broome-Tioga MX Park in Binghamton, New York. Carmichael had a 106-point lead over Reed (439 to 333) with six motos to go, which meant he would need just a pair of runner-up rides to clinch the championship two rounds before the conclusion. But with Reed out, that task will be even easier. By default, the new runner-up in the rankings is Kevin Windham with 293 points, with Team Honda's Davi Millsaps right behind him with 289. However, Sobe/Samsung Honda's Windham is the only rider left with a mathematical shot at topping RC, as Millsaps is 150 points back, so he would have to win all six motos and have RC scratch, but even though he would only tie, and then lose on the tie-breaker--Carmichael already has seven overall wins in nine rounds to date.

That leaves Windham, who is 146 points behind. In order for Carmichael to put the title out of Windham's reach, he only needs to score 4 points at Broome, which means a 17th place finish or better in moto one will do it.

Here's some Bench Racing Ammo for you: In his previous nine AMA Motocross titles, Carmichael has never failed to clinch the championship before the last round of the series. This time, with Reed out, it appears likely that Carmichael will clinch with two and a half races (five motos) left to be run.

Hey Roger, how about getting an RM125 out of the media-use bikes and bringing it to Steel City?
 
Current Toyotoa AMA Motocross standings
450 class (after 9 of 12 rounds)

 
1. Ricky Carmichael 439 (7 wins)
2. Chad Reed 333
3. Kevin Windham 293
4. David Millsaps 289
5. Travis Preston 257
6. James Stewart 243 (2)
7. David Vuillemin 242
8. Nicholas Wey 218
9. Timmy Ferry 191
10. Josh Demuth 137

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