In most sports, a rookie winning right off the rip is pretty surprising, but in this game, it seems a little more normal. As Jett Lawrence, ahem, jetted away with the first 450 moto of the 2023 AMA Pro Motocross Championship, it seemed both amazing and somehow expected. Jett came into the 450 ranks with obvious potential, and we’ve also seen other promising newcomers rule the day at first.
While Monster Energy AMA Supercross has historically been rough for rookies, the premier class of motocross is different. Just two years ago, for example, Dylan Ferrandis rolled to the Fox Raceway National overall in his first 450 Class attempt, and he went on to win the 450 Class Pro Motocross Championship that year. The season before that, a rookie Adam Cianciarulo went toe-to-toe with Zach Osborne for the motocross crown, coming up just 12 points short. Ken Roczen also won the 450MX title in his rookie year, as did Ryan Dungey and Ricky Carmichael. Carmichael and Ryan Villopoto went 1-1 in their debuts in this series and this class.
So, Jett is just joining those guys, right? Not so fast. Thanks to SuperMotocross World Championship (SMX) stat man Clinton Fowler, we’ve uncovered something: Jett’s performance is actually a little more impressive than the rest. Why? Well, let’s look at previous big wins in a debut in this series.
1985, Jeff Ward: Wardy raced the 125 Nationals through 1984, when he won the title, then moved to a 250 outdoors in ’85, and promptly went 1-1 at the 250 National opener, at Gainesville, and even followed that with another 1-1 at round two, at Hangtown. Wardy would go on to win both the 250 National Championship and the AMA Supercross Championship that year.
However, 125 supercross was barely even a thing at this point in the sport, as 1985 marked the debut year for that division. Wardy, like most riders of his generation, had to jump into 250 supercross almost immediately as a pro. So, by the time he went 1-1 in his first 250 MX National, he’d already raced a 250 quite a bit in supercross.
1999, Sebastien Tortelli: This Glen Helen ride is one of the all-time performances, as Frenchman Seb, already the ’98 250 Motocross World Champion, went 1-1 at his first AMA National. Further, he started horribly in both motos and rallied from around 20th to first in each race. It was incredible, and the record books show it as a 1-1 debut in the class.
However, obviously, Seb was not a traditional rookie, what with two 250 GP seasons under his belt, and that ’98 250 World Title.
2000, Ricky Carmichael: After three-straight 125 National Championships (in his first three seasons as a pro) RC moved to the 250 Nationals for 2000 and promptly went 1-1 at Glen Helen, even holding up under heavy pressure from Tortelli, who had that great ride we mentioned the year before.
That’s a great debut, but Carmichael had already raced a 250 a decent amount, as he debuted in 250 supercross for the ’99 season. He missed quite a few races that year with injuries but had already completed the entire 2000 250 supercross campaign before his Glen Helen 250 debut in motocross.
2009, Ryan Villopoto: Like RC, RV was moving to the big bikes after three small-bore titles in his first three pro seasons. Like RC, RV debuted with a 1-1 at Glen Helen. Sheesh, so many similarities, these guys should do a podcast together. Wait, they do? Check out Title24 on YouTube….er, where were we?
Oh yeah, great debut for Villopoto. Again, though, he’d already raced a 450 a decent bit in AMA Supercross before his motocross 1-1. In fact, he won two 450SX races on his KX450 toward then end of his 2009 rookie season.
2017, Jeffrey Herlings: You know, 2017 technically was The Bullet’s first year on a 450, but by the time the Dutchman showed up at the Ironman National, he’d already logged nearly a full MXGP season on the KTM 450SX-F. Still, the AMA record book would consider this a “rookie” ride for him, since it was his first-ever AMA Motocross National. As you surely remember, he won it in spectacular fashion.
2023, Jett Lawrence: So here’s the thing. Everyone mentioned above went 1-1, but it was not the first race for them on the bike, just the first race for them on it in AMA 450 Motocross (or 250, back in the day). Ward, RC, and RV had raced the bike in supercross before their motocross debut. Tortelli and Herlings had raced the bike in MXGP. Jett Lawrence did race the bike in the Monster Energy FIM Monster Energy Motocross of Nations last year at RedBud, but that’s it. He’d never raced a 450 in a “regular” race before. That’s what makes this surprising. It’s not that he won—we all knew he was capable of great things, and we’ve seen other greats do it before—it’s that this victory was actually a little different. It was much more of a debut, depending on how you view racing it at MXoN. Also, Jett’s hybrid season with racing 250SX for half the year and waiting for motocross season to grab a 450 helped set this all up.
How you interpret the data is up to you. Either way, it’s certainly impressive. Like the rest of the riders above, though, Jett’s probably not that worried about how his 1-1 gets interpreted through history. The real goal is to simply do it again.