Daytona. The Sunshine State… Gorgeous! For those of you who don’t understand my “Old School” reference, well shame on you.
Anyway, Daytona marks the ninth round of the series and as far as Ricky Carmichael is concerned, the real start of the series. While I may feel the series is well underway, we are beginning to see some hard truths appear and riders are finding their natural placement. Daytona is by nature the most unique race on the schedule and the only speedway venue we visit. It’s the beginning of Bike Week for the motorcycle world-at-large and with the Daytona 200 waning in recent years, the supercross is the highlight of the whole shebang. All of the OEM’s show up in full force with massive interactive displays and demo rides for prospective customers. It also marks the beginning of spring break for many of America’s high schools, colleges and universities, adding a multitude of tourists into the Daytona Beach mix.
Finally, The Daytona Supercross by Honda has partnered with one of the premier amateur events on the calendar with the growth of the Ricky Carmichael Amateur Supercross on Sunday and Monday, followed by the Fly Racing ATVSX on Tuesday. Combining thousands of motocross racers and fans, tens of thousands of Harley Davidson faithful, plus throngs of Spring Breakers, all makes for an interesting melting pot as the sun goes down.
Putting a full supercross track on the infield of the Daytona International Speedway presents obvious challenges and dictates a different soil and setup. The base of the track begins as grass in many sections with black Florida sand and hauled-in-clay for the many jumps and supercross-style whoops. The newer era Daytona track designed by Ricky Carmichael is much more of a supercross track than the Gary Bailey designed Daytona tracks of yesteryear. Bike setups have become much more of the standard supercross variety versus the outdoor-aimed setups from the ‘80s and ‘90s. The track doesn’t grow nearly as rough as it did back in those days and the main events are the standard timeframe as the track is now much shorter as well. Live television has changed that thought process more than anything else and there simply isn’t room to add several minutes to each and every race in the night’s schedule.
The track design this year looks similar overall to previous years but there are always some variables. The start is in the middle of the track and that usually means the inside-to-middle will be the hot ticket. The outside gates are much further of a distance from the first turn, making it difficult to start up front. Riders on the inside can control the pace to the turn and if riders on the outside try to force the issue, they can simply push them wide and into the Tuff Block. I would expect to see more than a few riders blowing through the outside of that first turn and onto the grass.
The track obstacles are typical for modern Daytona. On-off jumps, a standard supercross triple and a myriad of S turns are Daytona trademarks. The one missing item for 2016 is a long set of sand whoops. Last year’s whoops gave us the incredible Eli Tomac wheelie footage that we have all seen over and over. I don’t see anything like that on the map this year and that’s a shame. Nothing says Daytona like nasty, pot-holed sand whoops.
The only tricky rhythm section I can see will be on the far right of the track (if sitting in the grandstands). There is a triple-onto-tabletop followed by another tabletop and then two more single jumps. The idea here will be to triple onto the first tabletop, skip off onto the next tabletop and then skip off again over the next single. How difficult this is will depend on how the section is built and the angles of the jumps but on paper, this will be an incredibly important section. If a rider chooses a different rhythm than the above suggestion, it will be significantly slower. As the track deteriorates, watch to see if the 250 riders can maintain this line for all 15 laps.
Who’s Hot:
Ryan Dungey was gift wrapped a victory after a highly controversial series of events on Atlanta’s last lap. He was there to capitalize, however, and collected 25 points along the way. He is starting to put this points lead into dangerous territory.
Marvin Musquin snatched defeat from the jaws of victory last weekend with an assist from James Stewart. He still rode the best 450 race of his life to date and should hold his head high. He is easily the most improved rider in the series thus far.
Chad Reed was back to riding like the Chad Reed we all know. He had a few off weekends but was back on form in the main event. Daytona is historically a good race for Reed so he has to be feeling upbeat rolling into “Daytoner”.
Martin Davalos led every lap of every race he entered last weekend. His coach, Tim Ferry, actually predicted this mid-week and whaddya know, he was right! Davalos is no stranger to this class and has to know this may be his best and last shot at it.
Mookie may have crashed into Shane McElrath and not exactly gotten the result he wanted in Atlanta but he was fantastic regardless. He will be on everyone’s radar for this East Coast title.
Who’s Not:
Eli Tomac went down early in the main event and struggled to move forward afterwards. He hasn’t had much to smile about lately in the results column but Daytona may be a good bounce-back round.
Ken Roczen was way back early and could only move back up to sixth. While it wasn’t a catastrophe, he definitely can’t afford to give up ten point deficits to Ryan Dungey, either.
Tyler Bowers is Mitch Payton’s hope for a title in the East Coast swing. He was in contention for wins each and every week last season and is certainly hoping for more in 2016. Tyler didn’t have the easiest off-season, though, with surgeries and less than ideal preparation time. He was dealing with severe arm pump in the main event and it showed. He is going to need to find his race form quickly or this series will be out of reach before he knows it.
Trey Canard can’t seem to do anything right. Watching the first untimed practice in Atlanta, anyone and everyone would have been impressed. He was confident, fast, and fearless. Crashes in the heat race and main events combined with poor starts in those same races are a perfect recipe for frustrating results.
Bold Predictions:
Eli Tomac sees his first podium since… crap, I don’t even know when that was. Glendale? Yeah, Glendale.
After being told to handle it themselves by John Gallagher, Cole Seely and Jason Anderson arrive locked and loaded in sunny Florida. Vigilante justice ensues as the two factory stars duel at dawn on the grid of Daytona International Speedway. Luckily neither of the riders could shoot the broad side of a barn and run out of bullets before any harm is done. “Handle it yourselves,” folks.
Martin Davalos dedicates his Atlanta win to Steve Matthes and his unwavering support.
Jeremy Martin lands on the podium.
Jason Weigandt steals one of Gary Bailey’s telephone pole whoops and puts it in his yard so we can understand what he’s saying on his podcasts.
My Picks
250
Moooooooooookie Fever
Jeremy Martin
Aaron Plessinger
450
Ryan Dungey
Ken Roczen
Eli Tomac