Redux: The Big Mo
Thursday, March 21, 2013 | 3:10 PM
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Davi Millsaps' entire season turned around in just 11 seconds. Watch his GoPro footage from St. Louis and you’ll see exactly how. It happens between 1:42 and 1:53 in the clip.
In St. Louis, Millsaps got his first mid-pack start of the season. Not a problem, though, because #18 is on point, ripping off passes and moving forward quickly. He passed five riders by the second lap. His speed would be enough to salvage a great finish despite the bad start, until one single straightaway changed it all. At the beginning of the straight, Millsaps rolled a double (because he saw the red caution light) and was passed by Ryan Dungey. At the end of that straight, he was nailed by an errant, crashing Trey Canard and went down. Millsaps hurt his arm in the crash and was unable to find his speed again for the rest of race. He suffered a season-worst sixth-place finish.
A few days later, Davi crashed at home and hurt his knee. In Daytona, he suffered another bad start, but you could tell he wasn’t the same rider this time. Instead of knifing through the pack, he was merely keeping pace, and then he crashed. By the time he got up, everyone was gone, and so was his points lead.
Not long ago, Davi Millsaps had the momentum and the points lead.
Simon Cudby photo
Momentum is a funny thing in this sport. There should be zero connection between what happened to Davi at St. Louis—passed under the red, run into by a red bike—and what happened in Daytona. But often these disconnected events weaved together in a singular story.
Thus, even in a season several months long, success often hinges on moments much, much smaller. Marvin Musquin can point to one fraction of a second that turned his entire year around—and that turnaround could impact his whole career—his whole life, even—if he ends up winning the 250 East SX title.
We showed you the picture in Racerhead last week. At Daytona, Musquin found a starting gate with an extra gap between the gate next to it. He had a clear view of the pin that holds the gate up, and that helped him drop the hammer an eye blink faster than everyone else. He got an incredible jump out of the gate, a holeshot, and fifteen laps later, his first career SX win. Until Daytona, Musquin’s season was a bit of a disappointment. He had been fast in practice, but he was unable to duplicate that in the main events. Once he got that Daytona win, Musquin took career win number two seven days later. He rode incredibly well in Indianapolis, charging from last to second. And he would have finished second if not for an incredible stroke of good luck in the form of an unforced Blake Wharton error. At the first three 250 East rounds, Marvin was fast but couldn’t put it together. At the last two, he couldn't help himself from winning.
Now, consider that when Marvin got that great jump in Daytona, he was also a fraction of an inch away from getting stuck in the gate. Had that happened, he could be looking at zero wins this year and a disappointing season overall. We’d all be saying, “What’s up with Marvin?” Now he has a shot at being 250 SX East Champion.
If you don’t think there’s something to this momentum thing, Dean Wilson can help illustrate. He was the overwhelming title favorite going into the East opener in Dallas, and he rode high on those vibes. His lap times were far and away quicker than anyone else, and you could see the mojo via the huge whips and scrubs. Dean had never looked so strong, fresh, and confident.
Marvin Musquin has clicked off two consecutive wins.
Simon Cudby photo
After that win, Dean crashed big during the week and came into Atlanta maybe a shade off of his Dallas pace. Wil Hahn held Dean off to take his first career win, and since then Hahn has delivered every week while Wilson has struggled to put it all together. Dean has been fast, but each week something snares him. It has to be something small, too, because he was so fast in Dallas, just four weeks earlier. It's not possible to lose fitness in that short of time, so whatever is holding him up is something smaller and harder to overcome.
The differences in performance are subtle. Often, when a rider starts struggling with results, his starts go away. Yes, the order can be reversed, as bad starts lead to bad results too. But as James Stewart started riding better this year, his starts got better too. Chad Reed, meanwhile, started the year with high expectations, and his starts were good. He was there early at Anaheim 1. He was right up front before those huge second-turn crashes at Oakland and Anaheim 3. He had good starts at San Diego and Dallas. He came into those races thinking he was a holeshot away from a win. But now that it’s clear this is a bad season for Chad, he’s been mired off the start for about a month.That’s the small difference between having momentum and not—and it’s what makes it so impressive when a rider stares that inevitable conclusion in the face and manages to change the story. The absolute best can do it, but that’s because being the best leads to unwavering confidence. Even with his early crashes and struggles, I doubt that Ryan Villopoto ever thought he had lost his edge. He’s the two-time and defending SX champion. He’s immune to such thoughts. When Stewart crashed out of Anaheim 1 in 2009, he left knowing he was behind in points but still had the speed to come all the way back and win the title. And he did. For everyone else, though, it’s a more fleeting thought. Millsaps had every reason to tank through these final races.
Pre-season favorite, Dean Wilson, held the red plate after Dallas, but was dealt a crushing blow in Indy.
Simon Cudby photo
It wouldn’t have shocked anyone to see Millsaps roll into Indy, suffer another mid-pack start and card a seventh-place finish. The stars were aligning in that direction. But what did he do? He turned it around. Took the rotation of the earth and spun it the other way. He’s riding with a knee injury, with stalled momentum. But he dug deep and managed to go right back to his old standards. He holeshot the main, fought back each time someone challenged him, and was one lap away from a podium finish. He crashed on the final lap, dropping him to fourth, but it was the exact type of ride that gave him such a big points lead in the first place.
Will those rides be enough to give Davi the title? Maybe, maybe not. But it will be enough to turn his momentum around—and that means everything.
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I fully expect RV to win the 3-peat, however I am really wanting to see Davi pull off the upset. Maybe RD and RV take each other out as it has happened before.
Is it just me or does it look like Chad is constantly looking like he is wanting to endo over a lot of the jumps, fighting to bring the nose back up. If it's not the forks it must be the bike.Haha.
Certain "fans" screaming like crazy about Rv's pass.. I dont remember seeing one of those guys saying a word about Dungey passing the points leader in that same situation though.... I wonder why???
Millsaps has had a great run, he had a few bumps and bruises now, I hope he can get back up to speed now, we want a mad 3 way dash to Vegas..
Misoheye;
Along the lines of Reed looking like he's going to endo; I remember how when JS7 was racing 125s, he -always- carried the front end low over jumps. To me it looked like he was in trouble most of the time, but that's just how he rode the bike. When he moved up that riding trait disappeared..? Not sure what the deal was with that...
@misoheye
Davi's only chance is if those two have a bad race. RV and RD will never take each other out. They learned what happens with that in 2010, it wont happen again. So keep dreaming.
Why is it that everyone thinks that RV is the only one who can't screw up?
Davi can't screw up either, one bad race for Davi and.....yeah.. Neither can Dungey.
@persona...I'm sure they have learned from that incident. Never say never though because shit happens. You are right, none of those three can afford (another) screw up this year.
I'd like to see Davi stay in the game, however the RV 3peat is what I hope to see in the end...Its been said before, Nobody had Milsaps performing this well let alone leading half the series so if he ends up a close second, JOB WELL DONE!!!... I think Saps and Dungey will be having there own battle to stay within sight of RV...Dungey has to pass Saps in points before he can get to RV and Saps needs to finish ahead of Dungey to stay in check with RV.. From here on out, I think you will see RV beat who he needs to beat regardless of what postion they are in on the track..RV pulls a 3rd but is ahead of Saps and Dungey....he'll do that the remainder of the series if needed...But one thing I have noticed, RV and Stewart and Saps have their starts DIALED.....
Reed blamed nothing but himself the first few rounds after he Had to eat a little crow from all the over confidence he exerted leading up to A1, "its not the bike, its the rider"...He even joked about finding another rider to ride the bike.....then it was the bike - no front end feel....then the switch back to last years suspension and same results he has had all year...he will certainly have some good nights coming down the stretch as he charges and others play it safe....
Persona
Davi up until this season has been verry inconsistent, Dungey has been extremely consistent and Villopoto has proven to rise to the occasion. It is a safe bet that over time history will replete itself.
2 Rockstars down on the final lap... That's some bad mojo!
Indeed @persona--- To me, the most pressure not to screw up right now I think is Dungey....he is teetertottering on being 20+ points behind RV..... An RV win in Toronto and a 3rd or worse for example by Dungey and there you have it....RV can almost lose a whole race in points and still only be less than 10pts behind Dungey if Dungey were to win on that night.....But none of these guys can really afford to have a bad night at this stage in the game...a top 3 isnt a bad night.....4th or 5th is borderline....but anything can happen ...Bring on Toronto!
therealmofo a lot has been said about RD's ride and passes. Where you been?? or you just stiring the pot??
I blame DM problems on the racerx cover curse.
BillC...yeah some people are just dumb.
@Billy-- I have been here--and I dont remember seeing hardly anything about Dungey's pass, just the same 2 or 3 guys screaming about RV's pass... There has not been ALOT said , maybe one or two mentions
@coolhand, I'm dumb for wanting all to be equal?? Pi$$ off jerkoff..
Tribute to Alpinestars...
http://www.mxlynx.com/2013/03/tribute-to-alpinestars.html
Mofo....your proving my point one post at a time. Have a good day.
@billc - The pass that almost ended Dungey and Milsaps night....Dungey in the past has made some mental errors when the pressure is on....He was on it in Indy for sure, but that seemed a little careless for Dungey standards...
I said something about it on manday AM in two threads!! and Therealmofo life is not fair or equel even though the DEM's are trying to drag people down.
therealmofo ya gota admit this is pretty funny "Mofo....your proving my point one post at a time. Have a good day."
.If someone said that to me I would laugh!!
.For sure Killomoto, RD was pushing it and i liked it!! Lets see if he keeps it up. I will be doing the track walk with the guys in toronto!! Can't F ing wait!!!
Hey BillC I have always wondered. How do you get the privelege of doing the track walk if your just a fan??
Bummer Davi lost all those points but so have the others all season. Sure like watching that A1 domination Davi showed so hope he trains all week and is fired up. Its easier to be an underdog chasing I think.
Davi has what it takes to win this title. Watching that go pro footage shows how good he is at passing on tracks that are not known for passing. RV is great but I can't help but go for Milsaps. I do believe he can beat RV straight up and if he's consistant like he started out, he's not that far off with as many races as we have left. Go 18.
Here's a little factoid.
In 2012, RV had 2 wins after round 5. After round 11, he had 6 wins.
In 2013, RV had 2 wins after round 5. After round 11, he has 6 wins.
@ byrner99, here we go with the staight up again!
OK, Davi holeshots, RV is in second. I guarantee you RV is going by DM18 and it won't take long.
Too his credit, I know Davi would fight back and challenge immediately. But after a lap or 2 Davi would have to back it down.
I don't see him running the consistent fast lap pace that RV has proven capable of. Like clicking off 10 laps under 52 seconds last week!
I know we are speculating here but that is my opinion based on the history of this season......STRAIGHT UP!
I think that was the first time I've seen anyone say that Davi can beat RV straigh.......( I'm not saying it).......head-to-head. Even all the others that think Davi can win the title think it HAS to come as a result of Millsaps good results AND RV mistakes.
Here's an amazing stat: Millsaps has only finished ahead of RV 3 times in 2013 and those were all bad races for RV (16th, 8th, 6th). In many races he was merely in RV's way as he went to the front. In the other 8 races he has been gaining points back on Davi which is why he is 9 up now. Davi will soon be behind Dungey and the two Ryans will remain relatively close the rest of the way.
BillC has to get a political jab in there.
B-KR, agreed 100%!
So far... A great season. Here's to anyone keeping the points close...
the Spunge still owes Lucky Charms a takeout from yrs past~ PUNT him in the tuff blocks this wknd! James will Win his 2nd Go J-law!
Thanks for adding so much to the convo Sef154!!
.
kawigreen I get tickets from an X champ.
.
byrner99 Saps started in front of RV last week and finished over 10sec back and that was before he fell.
B-KR you must have not read much last week, Killomoto and i had this "straight up" talk with a few guys and then this week they say well Sap's got arm pump ect LOL
Just saw the gopro with mister perfect passing DM on the blinking red, Did I miss that thread? Just saying!
BillC Have a good time in Toronto!
@BillC- Enjoy the races there. I would have to say the former pro you mentioned would have the initials DH! Cool that you get to do a track walk! Wonder if Ripdown will be there? I'm thinking he said he was going. I, will have to watch it on TV. But we are in some sort of an extended winter here, so I will be in the cold, just like you guys up there. Crazy weather, around here, this year.
Bucky394 Hope you've finally got out on your sled, we've had consistant snow here in New England. I got up to Maine a few weeks ago conditions where great.
I certainly mentioned it. The AMA has reay hurt Davi in 2013 with poor decisions. Both Dungey and Villipoto should have been penalized equally for breaking the rules. I feel for Davi on this one, and if the AMA did whats right we would have a tighter points battle right now. What Dungey did was pretty disappointing, he knows better than that and it sets such a bad standard.
Guaranteed every Red Cross flag now riders will be going faster and faster to protect themselves.
It looks like RV will win the title regardless of what the penalty would have been but at least it would have set precedence that safety for a man down comes first and rules need to be obeyed.
Frankly, I'm suprised Davi hasn't protested based on footage. Worry not, the "karma" hand will comes back in Davis favor, it always does in this sport.
rickamatuzio,
RV's pass on JS7 was on the the yellow as explained by the officials.
What RD did to DM was on the the red and your right it should have a penalty.
Not sure why Rockstar hasn't protested.
Dungey's pass was actually not illegal as per the rules--after the race, Rockstar Energy Racing wanted to protest, and it was explained that the blinking red on the take off to the double is actually a warning to not jump the big triple up ahead. You might remember Atlanta last year, when Villopoto approached the triple and the red light turned on just as he hit the face. That wasn't enough time to stop, so now they have a light for the jump before the triple, giving the riders more time to react.
As confusing as it is, it actually was legal to jump that double, so Dungey was okay. For sure, that's really, really confusing and the AMA/FIM people had to explain it to Davi and his team after the race. For sure, Davi won't single that double ever again. Should the rule be changed? Is it confusing? That's another issue, but as the rules stood in St. Louis, Dungey's pass was not illegal.
Jason pretty sure on the last dispute they said no passing on the red. And on the gopro I watched it again RD pass was after or on the jump they both rolled not the previous double, which was my point. My guess is the officials determined that the pass was completed before the the light. It's there job not mine i'm just a spectator.
rickamatuzio give it up, RD did nothing wrong, Saps' team did protest but pulled it once it found out what the RULES are.
JaminGeorge I think the Red light and the Red "X" flag are not the same, The light is for the tripple and the Flag is for any section of the track the way i understand it..
.And thanks i will have a great time!!
Yes Bucky DH it is LOL.
I never claim to know everything thats why i ended it with it's up to the officials.
It's a good thing I don't race now because I would have never slowed for anything unless the motor siezed. HAHAHA WFO baby
BillC I went back and watched it again and there is a red cross flag out.
I think they're saying the pass was already made before they got to the flag.
Sorry can't help it! it's a little slow today.
Dungeys pass was not illegal, not at all, neither was RV's.. Just saying not near the uproar about Dungeys pass as RV's, by a group of fans, all I was pointing out, just pointing out their biased nature.. Saying it was about the "integrity" of the sport, they didnt care about the Dungey pass..
Neither pass was illegal...
@BillC--sef154 contributed as much in his sentence on politics as you did..except you sound typically ignorant about it..
Since the Saps and Dungey passes are a hot topic -
What are your folks thoughts on Dungeys pass on Saps at Indy? I dont think it was as aggressive as it was careless..Coming in on Saps from the inside over that hump a jump almost ended in disaster.....I can only think what would be said if Stewart made that same pass.....it was close and I think there was contact.....Saps may have a little something for Dungey....Dungey went after a wounded man....So I look for Saps to return the favor....
therealmofo If your refering to me as ignorant i'm not persistant yes. But let's be clear I accept what the officials say and so many others do not. With me I'm just trying to understand the rules.
"It's a good thing I don't race now because I would have never slowed for anything unless the motor siezed. HAHAHA WFO baby"
.LMAO George!!!
BillC thats the it was back in the seventies.It was LMAO rebuilding bikes every other week got expensive.
Still comical that people (media) thought RV wasn't going to take over the points lead. Not only has he been the fastest rider in the majority of the main events, but he's earned quality points on the nights that he wasn't. It's far from a science...
Taking the qualitative approach, did you really think DM would beat RV? I'm not an RV die hard, but seriously, put him next to any of the 450 front runners as the only guys on the gate and give them 20 laps. Who's your money on? Stewart's the only one who has kept him in check, and that was one race. Don't really expect that to happen again. Chad is struggling to crack the top 5 each week, Dungey doesnt have the explosive aggression to get into the top 3 and stay there early, Barcia has been a wild man, James is consistently inconsistent, & Davi plateaued and then got injured while RV continued to rise.
@JamminGeorge-Hey, yeah we have been getting some riding in. A bit hit or miss, but it's been fun. One more ride today and , unless we get more snow, I think we are done. Don't remember being able to ride this late in the year very often.
@BillC I thought so! Gonna go get my Mn. moto fix via of a handful of throttle, on the sled. Strange conditions, out there, but fun as hell!